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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 at Buffalo Bills 24. Final.
Bills -10 no coverU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Buffalo Bills 24, Buccaneers 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:40, 1st and 10, on William Gholston — 7.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:40 · 1st and 10
William Gholston
Buccaneers
(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 86-D.Kincaid INTERCEPTED by 92-W.Gholston (31-A.Winfield) at BUF 23. 92-W.Gholston to BUF 23 for no gain (60-M.Morse).
Bills closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 24–18. Biggest swing: Q2 7:40, Buccaneers +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ1 12:46(12:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to BUF 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.
7.6pts
Dalton KincaidBillsQ2 2:46(2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Buccaneers at 4 of 15 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.21 expected points per carry.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Buccaneers173 of 186 plays carry both curves
(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 86-D.Kincaid INTERCEPTED by 92-W.Gholston (31-A.Winfield) at BUF 23. 92-W.Gholston to BUF 23 for no gain (60-M.Morse).
Swing −7.6 for BillsExpected points −5.55 for BillsThe model had Buccaneers 13 points higher than the market did.play 62
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:40TB +8% win prob(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 86-D.Kincaid INTERCEPTED by 92-W.Gholston (31-A.Winfield) at BUF 23. 92-W.Gholston to BUF 23 for no gain (60-M.Morse).
1st · 12:46BUF +8% win prob(12:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to BUF 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.
2nd · 2:46BUF +7% win prob(2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:25BUF +5% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to BUF 43 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).
1st · 5:57BUF +5% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Otton [56-L.Floyd]. PENALTY on BUF-20-T.Rapp, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at TB 39 - No Play.
1st · 4:26TB +4% win prob(4:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-S.Lawson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalton Kincaid's 22-yard touchdown catch with 2:46 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:08Tyler Bass·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Buccaneers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.10Bills: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Buccaneers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Buccaneers: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.13Bills: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 62 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Bills’s 67 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 1, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's play-action rate, 6.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 15.2% in week 7.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +15.8 pts, is past their previous high of +6.6 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bills20.8%
right on their number · +3.6 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteTB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.3%, 16.5 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Cody MauchG · Every snap100%68 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Aaron StinnieG · Every snap100%68 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time97%66 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time85%58 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time85%58 snaps
1Rachaad WhiteRB · Full-time82%56 snaps
10Trey PalmerWR · Full-time81%55 snaps
83Deven ThompkinsWR · Situational16%11 snaps
18Rakim JarrettWR · Situational15%10 snaps
22Chase EdmondsRB · Situational12%8 snaps
87Payne DurhamTE · Situational12%8 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Situational9%6 snaps
21Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Pat O'ConnorDEKaevon MerriweatherFSMatt FeilerGVita VeaNTMarkees WattsOLBSean TuckerRBDavid WellsTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 86-D.Kincaid INTERCEPTED by 92-W.Gholston (31-A.Winfield) at BUF 23. 92-W.Gholston to BUF 23 for no gain (60-M.Morse).
Q2 7:40 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 25 · gained nothing · -5.55 EP · −11.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 96 yards from the TB 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0680%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0969%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1340%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.4678%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 48
Buccaneers0Bills3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Buccaneers 19
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Bills 32
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Buccaneers 1
2nd quarter53 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 1 to the Buccaneers 3
Buccaneers0Bills9
Buccaneers0Bills10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 11
Buccaneers3Bills10
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bills 39
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Buccaneers9Bills10
Buccaneers10Bills10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 3
Buccaneers10Bills16
Buccaneers10Bills17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Buccaneers 20
Punt14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bills 41
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Buccaneers10Bills23
Buccaneers10Bills24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Buccaneers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 49
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 3 to the Buccaneers 12
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Buccaneers 39
4th quarter56 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 10
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Buccaneers 44
Buccaneers16Bills24
Buccaneers18Bills24
Touchdown23 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Bills 24
The period ended12 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Buccaneers 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
