2023 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 26, 2023 · New Era Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -10 no coverU 43 ✓Bills closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 24–18. Biggest swing: Q2 7:40, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:40TB 3 — BUF 10BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 92%

(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 86-D.Kincaid INTERCEPTED by 92-W.Gholston (31-A.Winfield) at BUF 23. 92-W.Gholston to BUF 23 for no gain (60-M.Morse).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:40TB +8% win prob(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 86-D.Kincaid INTERCEPTED by 92-W.Gholston (31-A.Winfield) at BUF 23. 92-W.Gholston to BUF 23 for no gain (60-M.Morse).
Q1 · 12:46BUF +8% win prob(12:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to BUF 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.
Q2 · 2:46BUF +7% win prob(2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:25BUF +5% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to BUF 43 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:08BUF Field goal
(8:08) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: TB 0 — BUF 3
Q2 · 11:10BUF Touchdown
(11:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — BUF 10
Q2 · 7:45TB Field goal
(7:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — BUF 10
Q2 · 6:51TB Touchdown
(6:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — BUF 10
Q2 · 2:46BUF Touchdown
(2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — BUF 17
Q3 · 10:46BUF Touchdown
(10:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — BUF 24
Q4 · 2:51TB Touchdown
(2:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: TB 18 — BUF 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Bills
Offensive plays	62	67
Total yards	302	428 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	37%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	13	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

31/40, 324 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.8 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

25/42, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

7 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

6/6 for 92 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

9/12 for 87 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 27	8	21	2:25	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 4	10	77	4:31	Field goal +3
3	TB	TB 20	8	27	3:43	Missed field goal
4	BUF	BUF 40	8	69	4:24	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 1	4	2	1:09	Punt
6	BUF	TB 23	6	23	2:45	Touchdown +7
7	TB	TB 25	9	51	3:23	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:07	Interception
9	TB	BUF 23	3	23	0:47	Touchdown +7
10	BUF	BUF 25	11	75	4:06	Touchdown +7
11	TB	TB 25	9	39	2:29	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 20	1	0	0:11	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 25	11	70	4:20	Touchdown +7
14	TB	TB 25	6	18	3:00	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 23	7	26	2:47	Punt
16	TB	TB 3	4	9	2:21	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 17	10	36	3:30	Punt
18	TB	TB 4	4	6	1:04	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 33	6	23	2:53	Punt
20	TB	TB 8	17	86	7:21	Touchdown +8
21	BUF	BUF 23	8	29	2:23	Punt
22	TB	TB 20	4	20	0:21	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	25/42	237	2	0	3	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	9	39	4.3	-2.0
Baker Mayfield	3	19	6.3	-0.6
Chris Godwin	1	14	14.0	1.0
Chase Edmonds	3	5	1.7	-1.2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	1	1	1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rachaad White	7	7	70	0	18%	5.1
Chris Godwin	5	7	54	1	18%	2.2
Mike Evans	3	6	39	1	15%	2.6
Cade Otton	4	6	27	0	15%	-1.4
Trey Palmer	3	6	22	0	15%	-0.7
Chase Edmonds	2	3	16	0	8%	0.2
Rakim Jarrett	1	3	9	0	8%	-1.3
Payne Durham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	4	8	0.0	0
Ryan Neal	8	3	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	8	0	0.0	2
Devin White	3	4	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	2	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	2	2	0.0	1
Carlton Davis	4	0	0.0	1
Anthony Nelson	4	0	1.0	0
Josh Hayes	3	0	0.0	0
Christian Izien	1	1	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	31/40	324	2	1	2	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	14	67	4.8	0	1.2
Josh Allen	7	41	5.9	1	5.6
Latavius Murray	5	7	1.4	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	6	6	92	0	15%	7.0
Gabe Davis	9	12	87	1	31%	4.2
Stefon Diggs	9	12	70	0	31%	-3.2
Dalton Kincaid	5	7	65	1	18%	-2.5
James Cook	1	1	6	0	3%	0.0
Latavius Murray	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Poyer	3	5	0.0	2
Terrel Bernard	6	2	0.0	2
Taron Johnson	3	2	1.0	0
Dane Jackson	3	2	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	3	1	0.0	1
Shaq Lawson	2	0	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	1	1	1.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	1	1	0.0	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	1	1.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -10
Closing total: 43
TB moneyline: +370
BUF moneyline: -485

Bills closed -10, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43; the game landed 42 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TB 4 days · BUF 4 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Sean McDermott