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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q2 13:16, 1st and 10, on Denzel Ward — 7.2 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 27–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:16, Browns +7.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:16 · 1st and 10
Denzel Ward
Browns
(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -1.01 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.80 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 30% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 15% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dustin Hopkins's 30-yard field goal with 14:18 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Dustin Hopkins30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+30–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryBrowns
Browns ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.01 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 48 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Browns’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 0, Browns 4.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.80.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 37.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
CLE's pass rate over expected, −15.6 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CLE's blitz rate sent, 12.5%, is past their previous low of 18.8% in week 2 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.9% in week 8 against 31.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-0.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.2 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 48 snaps
Browns-15.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.8 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 82%
Tendencies room →Cardinals60.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 early downs
Browns37.3%leaned — ran early · −16.4 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.79× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Cardinals21.9%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Browns18.2%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.9%.
Browns50.0%inside their normal wobble · +13.2 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±25.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 63%
Tendencies room →Cardinals24.2%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns12.5%leaned — sat back · −17.0 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Cardinals12.1%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns31.3%leaned — got home · +13.3 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
CLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.3%, 16.4 points below their season mean of 53.7% and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
19/30, 219 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
11/20, 58 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-32.8 expected points added · -17.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Amari Cooper banked 15.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 24.9 | +15.1 | 79% | 94% | 18% | 53% | 5/5, 139 yd, 1 TD |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | +5.3 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 219 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 22 yd |
| Jerome FordRB · Committee Back | 12.7 | −7.2 | 64% | 71% | 25% | 0% | 20 car, 44 yd · 5/7, 33 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 12.6 | +1.7 | 77% | 76% | 21% | 3% | 4/6, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −1.1 | 29% | 21% | 4% | 2% | 14 car, 38 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.4 | −2.8 | 90% | 97% | 40% | 73% | 4/8, 24 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 5.2 | −0.9 | 69% | 66% | 25% | 57% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.6 | 62% | 79% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Tony JonesRB · Receiving Back | 2.7 | −2.2 | 40% | 50% | 15% | 0% | 3 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 5 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.2 | 26% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.7 | 69% | 78% | 10% | 0% | 4 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 74% | 71% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 42% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 1.2 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keaontay IngramRB · Committee Back | 0.8 | −3.3 | 42% | 34% | 0% | — | 9 car, 8 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 34% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 60% | 59% | 5% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 11% | 18% | 7% | 38% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Clayton TuneQB · Starter QB | -0.9 | −7.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/20, 58 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 28 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
Q2 13:16 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 40 · gained nothing · -4.63 EP · −12.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 60 yards from the CLE 28 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
Browns3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals0Browns9Cardinals0Browns10Cardinals0Browns13Cardinals0Browns19Cardinals0Browns20Cardinals0Browns26Cardinals0Browns27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Tune | 11/20 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 7 | −32.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Tune | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Rondale Moore |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 40% | −9.3 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Woods | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/30 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_ARI_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -13 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 38; the game landed 27 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.6 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −0.6 |
| −5.2 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15% | −2.7 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kevin Strong | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leki Fotu | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaven Collins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 20 | 44 | 2.2 | 0 | −7.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Pierre Strong | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 5 | 139 | 1 | 18% | +12.2 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 25% | −0.8 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 21% | +0.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11% | −2.9 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 4% | −1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Mitchell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
