For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 0 at Cleveland Browns 27. Final.
Browns -13 ✓U 38 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Cleveland Browns 27, Cardinals 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 13:16, 1st and 10, on Denzel Ward — 7.2 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:16 · 1st and 10
Denzel Ward
Browns
(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
Browns closed -13 and covered, winning by 27.
Cleveland Browns 27–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:16, Browns +7.2% win probability on one snap.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Clayton TuneBrownsQ1 3:43(3:43) 15-C.Tune sacked at ARI 27 for -10 yards (96-J.Elliott).
4.4pts
Amari CooperBrownsQ1 2:01(2:01) (Shotgun) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 13 for 59 yards (34-J.Thompson).
5.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -1.01 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.80 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 30% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 15% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Cardinals156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
Swing +7.2 for BrownsExpected points +4.63 for BrownsThe model had Cardinals 22 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:16ARI +7% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
1st · 2:01CLE +5% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 13 for 59 yards (34-J.Thompson).
1st · 3:43ARI +4% win prob(3:43) 15-C.Tune sacked at ARI 27 for -10 yards (96-J.Elliott).
1st · 9:18CLE +4% win prob(9:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 41 for 15 yards (34-J.Thompson).
1st · 0:41ARI +4% win prob(:41) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson sacked at ARI 16 for -6 yards (sack split by 10-J.Woods and 95-L.Fotu).
1st · 14:24CLE +4% win prob(14:24) 15-C.Tune pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 39 for 12 yards (22-G.Delpit).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 30-yard field goal with 14:18 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:18Dustin Hopkins·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+30–3
Browns ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.01 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.80Cardinals: −0.80 expected points added per play
−0.08Browns: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−1.01Cardinals: −1.01 expected points added per play
+0.09Browns: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Cardinals: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.22Browns: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 48 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Browns’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 0, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.80.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 37.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 41.4% in week 8.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, −15.6 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.9% in week 8 against 31.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns31.3%
leaned — got home · +13.3 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.3%, 16.4 points below their season mean of 53.7% and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Tune pass−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward [99-Z.Smith] at ARI 49. 21-D.Ward to ARI 49 for no gain (2-M.Brown).
Q2 13:16 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 40 · gained nothing · -4.63 EP · −12.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 60 yards from the CLE 28 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
29%
Yards
384
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0665%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-1.0074%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3418%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.2418%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.9344%
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.6029%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.4840%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.8320%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Browns 48
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 41
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 21
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Cardinals 36
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Cardinals 10
2nd quarter46 plays
Cardinals0Browns3
Field goal2 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 40
Cardinals0Browns9
Cardinals0Browns10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 11
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays
Cardinals0Browns13
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Cardinals 27
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 46
Fumble lost1 play
Cardinals0Browns19
Cardinals0Browns20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 5
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 44
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Browns 11
Intercepted3 plays, from midfield to the Browns 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 41
4th quarter44 plays
No good6 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 30
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Browns 44
Cardinals0Browns26
Cardinals0Browns27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Cardinals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 33
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 36
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 34
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
