2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -1.5 ✓U 51 ✓Bengals closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Cincinnati Bengals 24–18. Biggest swing: Q4 13:25, BUF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:25BUF 10 — CIN 21BUF ball · 1st & 10CIN 80%

(13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to CIN 11 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott, 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-33-N.Scott at CIN 13. 33-N.Scott to CIN 13 for no gain (60

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:25BUF +13% win prob(13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to CIN 11 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott, 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-33-N.Scott at CIN 13. 33-N.Scott to CIN 13 for no gain (60-M.Morse). Officially a Reception for 9 yards.
Q1 · 3:38CIN +9% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd ran ob at BUF 27 for 15 yards.
Q2 · 2:39CIN +7% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to BUF 25 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Q4 · 3:32CIN +7% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to BUF 43 for 32 yards (20-T.Rapp).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:23CIN Touchdown
(9:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 81-I.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — CIN 7
Q1 · 6:08BUF Touchdown
(6:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — CIN 7
Q1 · 0:38CIN Touchdown
(:38) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — CIN 14
Q2 · 1:46CIN Touchdown
(1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 89-D.Sample for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — CIN 21
Q3 · 10:25BUF Field goal
(10:25) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — CIN 21
Q4 · 8:11CIN Field goal
(8:11) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — CIN 24
Q4 · 3:36BUF Touchdown
(3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BUF 18 — CIN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Bengals
Offensive plays	56	64
Total yards	319	400 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	55% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	80%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	8/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	21	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

31/44, 348 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.7 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

26/38, 258 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.6 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 37 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

8/9 for 110 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/7 for 86 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 24	11	76	5:42	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 15	9	85	3:15	Touchdown +7
3	CIN	CIN 31	13	54	5:28	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 25	6	1	1:40	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 22	7	35	4:48	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 12	2	0	0:13	Interception
7	CIN	BUF 32	4	4	3:16	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 9	4	-1	2:09	Punt
9	CIN	BUF 45	8	45	1:52	Touchdown +7
10	BUF	BUF 25	6	37	1:37	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 26	12	63	4:39	Field goal +3
12	CIN	CIN 8	9	34	3:57	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 9	4	5	1:18	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 42	6	23	2:53	Turnover on downs
15	BUF	BUF 35	9	52	3:55	Fumble
16	CIN	CIN 13	12	85	5:10	Field goal +3
17	BUF	BUF 25	14	77	4:36	Touchdown +8
18	CIN	CIN 25	8	44	3:32	End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	26/38	258	1	1	1	4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	8	44	5.5	1	3.2
James Cook	6	20	3.3	0	-1.1
Latavius Murray	2	4	2.0	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	7	86	1	22%	8.9
Dalton Kincaid	10	11	81	0	34%	-0.9
Khalil Shakir	4	4	57	0	13%	2.8
James Cook	4	4	19	0	13%	-0.1
Trent Sherfield	1	2	9	0	6%	-0.2
Latavius Murray	1	1	6	0	3%	0.4
Deonte Harty	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Gabe Davis	0	2	0	0	6%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Poyer	8	3	0.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	7	2	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	4	0	0.0	0
Dorian Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Taylor Rapp	3	0	0.0	0
Dane Jackson	3	0	0.0	3
Terrel Bernard	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Benford	2	1	0.0	0
Jordan Phillips	0	3	0.5	0
Rasul Douglas	2	0	0.0	1

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	31/44	348	2	0	1	12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	37	2.6	1	-1.1
Trayveon Williams	3	13	4.3	0	-0.4
Joe Burrow	5	4	0.8	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	8	9	110	0	21%	9.1
Tyler Boyd	3	5	56	0	12%	1.3
Tanner Hudson	4	5	45	0	12%	3.7
Ja'Marr Chase	4	8	41	0	19%	0.3
Joe Mixon	5	6	31	0	14%	-1.7
Drew Sample	3	4	30	1	10%	0.6
Irv Smith	3	4	26	1	10%	2.1
Andrei Iosivas	1	1	9	0	2%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Germaine Pratt	5	5	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	9	0	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	3	4	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reader	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dax Hill	0	2	0.0	0	1
Cam Taylor-Britt	1	1	0.0	1	1
D.J. Turner	2	0	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1.5
Closing total: 51
BUF moneyline: +105
CIN moneyline: -125

Bengals closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 51; the game landed 42 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: BUF 10 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Zac Taylor