For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Chicago Bears

17

New Orleans SaintsWinner

24

NO -9 no coverU 42 ✓Dome

New Orleans Saints 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 13:07, CHI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑CHI ↓
Q3 · 13:07CHI 14 — NO 14CHI ball · 2nd & 4NO 64%

(13:07) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to CHI 42 for 13 yards (29-P.Adebo; 32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (29-P.Adebo), RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at CHI 39.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 13:07CHI +15% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to CHI 42 for 13 yards (29-P.Adebo; 32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (29-P.Adebo), RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at CHI 39.
  2. Q1 · 5:59CHI +11% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at 50. 29-P.Adebo to CHI 45 for 5 yards (85-C.Kmet; 11-D.Mooney). INJURY UPDATE - NO Saints, 55-I.Foskey, thigh, QUESTIONABLE to return.
  3. Q4 · 11:11NO +9% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 0:32CHI +9% win prob(:32) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:28CHI Touchdown

    (11:28) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — NO 0
  2. Q1 · 0:49NO Touchdown

    (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — NO 7
  3. Q2 · 12:57CHI Touchdown

    (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — NO 7
  4. Q2 · 6:08NO Touchdown

    (6:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 7-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — NO 14
  5. Q3 · 11:48NO Field goal

    (11:48) 19-B.Grupe 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — NO 17
  6. Q3 · 3:30CHI Field goal

    (3:30) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — NO 17
  7. Q4 · 11:11NO Touchdown

    (11:11) (Shotgun) 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — NO 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsSaints
Offensive plays6461
Total yards368 (edge)302
Yards per play5.8 (edge)5.0
Expected points added / play-0.10-0.06 (edge)
Success rate44%46% (edge)
Dropback rate58%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17 (edge)-0.30
Third downs6/127/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)17
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers50 (edge)

Bears outgained Saints 368–302 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Tyson BagentQB

18/30, 220 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

25/34, 211 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Onta ForemanRB

20 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Tyson BagentQB

8 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

8.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

5/6 for 82 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

6/8 for 55 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 2511753:39Touchdown +7
2NONO 256191:53Punt
3CHICHI 147373:40Interception
4NOCHI 4511455:04Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 258852:52Touchdown +7
6NONO 2513756:47Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 2514535:37Missed field goal
8NONO 305310:28End of half
9NONO 22571:16Punt
10CHICHI 232160:45Fumble
11NOCHI 39421:16Field goal +3
12CHICHI 2514828:16Field goal +3
13NONO 257362:22Punt
14CHICHI 9462:06Punt
15NOCHI 476472:54Touchdown +7
16CHICHI 25300:07Interception
17NOCHI 386203:29Turnover on downs
18CHICHI 176122:21Interception
19NOCHI 46411:27Punt
20CHICHI 2460:56Punt
21NOCHI 36470:19Missed field goal
22CHICHI 372-40:21Fumble
23NOCHI 184122:05End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyson Bagent18/30220232-3.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Onta Foreman20834.20-2.6
Tyson Bagent8708.808.8
Roschon Johnson263.00-0.5
Darrynton Evans122.00-0.9
Tyler Scott1-5-5.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darnell Mooney5682023%2.8
Cole Kmet6855231%1.5
D.J. Moore3544019%-4.6
Darrynton Evans221908%0.7
Robert Tonyan111104%2.1
Roschon Johnson11904%0.8
Velus Jones01004%-0.6
Tyler Scott02008%-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards750.001
Jack Sanborn520.000
Elijah Hicks330.000
Kyler Gordon320.000
Tyrique Stevenson140.000
Eddie Jackson410.000
Jaylon Johnson310.000
Andrew Billings130.000
Jaylon Jones120.000
Cole Kmet110.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr25/342112002.7
Taysom Hill1/131000.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Taysom Hill11524.700.4
Alvin Kamara9262.90-1.5
Jamaal Williams362.00-1.3
Derek Carr331.00-9.4
Kendre Miller100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave6846125%1.2
Alvin Kamara4544016%1.0
Kendre Miller113103%2.4
Juwan Johnson5529116%1.1
Foster Moreau112303%1.2
Rashid Shaheed332209%1.1
Taysom Hill4513116%1.0
Jamaal Williams23609%-2.8
Michael Thomas01003%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demario Davis721.000
Cameron Jordan341.000
Paulson Adebo320.023
Tyrann Mathieu410.001
Khalen Saunders130.000
Nathan Shepherd220.000
Carl Granderson310.000
Bryan Bresee120.001
Marshon Lattimore210.000
Marcus Maye300.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -9
Closing total
42
CHI moneyline
+340
NO moneyline
-440

Saints closed -9, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 41 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
CHI 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Dennis Allen