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2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CowboysDallas23
BY 5final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia28
Dallas Cowboys 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 28. Final.
Eagles -3.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Cowboys 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:27, 1st and 10, on Dak Prescott — 24.9 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:27 · 1st and 10
Dak Prescott
Eagles
(:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (94-J.Sweat).
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Philadelphia Eagles 28–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, Eagles +24.9% win probability on one snap.
24.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottEaglesQ4 1:22(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Tolbert (24-J.Bradberry).
20.0pts
Jake FergusonCowboysQ4 0:40(:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson pushed ob at PHI 40 for 10 yards (2-D.Slay). PHI-2-D.Slay was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-7-H.Reddick, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 40.
19.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 5 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Cowboys at 6 of 15 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cowboys170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (94-J.Sweat).
Swing +24.9 for EaglesExpected points +1.63 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 3 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:27DAL +25% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (94-J.Sweat).
4th · 1:22DAL +20% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Tolbert (24-J.Bradberry).
4th · 0:40PHI +20% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson pushed ob at PHI 40 for 10 yards (2-D.Slay). PHI-2-D.Slay was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-7-H.Reddick, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 40.
2nd · 1:20PHI +15% win prob(1:20) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
4th · 0:05DAL +15% win prob(:05) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 23 yards (2-D.Slay, 21-S.Brown). FUMBLES (21-S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at PHI 7.
2nd · 11:21PHI +14% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 9-K.Turpin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeVonta Smith's 29-yard touchdown catch with 11:30 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th6:30Jalen Tolbert·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+623–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Cowboys4–3Eagles
407Total yards292
5.8Yards per play4.9
47%Success rate49%
40%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays5
23First downs17
5Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Cowboys: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.19Eagles: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Cowboys: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.32Eagles: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Cowboys: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.05Eagles: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 70 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Eagles’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate, 71.4%, is past their previous high of 62.5% in week 8 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Eagles15.1%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.4%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 56.9% and 1.8 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:05) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 23 yards (2-D.Slay, 21-S.Brown). FUMBLES (21-S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at PHI 7.
Q4 0:05 · Cowboys · 3rd & 26 at PHI 27 · gained 20 · -1.72 EP · −26.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 87 yards from the PHI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
46%
Yards
698
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.2375%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2657%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0322%
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5-0.37100%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys0Eagles6
Cowboys0Eagles7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Cowboys 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Cowboys6Eagles7
Cowboys7Eagles7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Eagles 4
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.7 seconds
Cowboys13Eagles7
Cowboys14Eagles7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Eagles 5
Cowboys14Eagles13
Cowboys14Eagles14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Cowboys 1
Cowboys17Eagles14
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 33
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Cowboys17Eagles20
Cowboys17Eagles21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Cowboys 29
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 43
Cowboys17Eagles27
Cowboys17Eagles28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Cowboys 48
4th quarter58 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 1
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 6
Cowboys23Eagles28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Eagles 2
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Eagles 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Eagles 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -3.5
Closing total
46.5
Cowboys moneyline
+145
Eagles moneyline
-175
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 51 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 67°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Nick Sirianni
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 3:20PHI +11% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to PHI 31 for 12 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).
4th · 0:46PHI +11% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup. PHI-24-J.Bradberry was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at DAL 14 - No Play.
