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2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

27

Carolina Panthers

13

IND -1.5 ✓U 45 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 27–13. Biggest swing: Q4 13:52, IND +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 13:52IND 26 — CAR 10CAR ball · 2nd & 8IND 83%

(13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 13:52IND +15% win prob(13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 8:14CAR +13% win prob(8:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-57-C.Wooten at CAR 48.
  3. Q2 · 0:31IND +9% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at CAR 49. 23-K.Moore for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 2:47CAR +8% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right end to CAR 45 for 7 yards (13-T.Hill). PENALTY on CAR-13-T.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 45.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 13:55IND Field goal

    (13:55) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — CAR 0
  2. Q2 · 7:52IND Touchdown

    (7:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — CAR 0
  3. Q2 · 3:39CAR Field goal

    (3:39) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — CAR 3
  4. Q2 · 0:58IND Field goal

    (:58) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — CAR 3
  5. Q2 · 0:31IND Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at CAR 49. 23-K.Moore for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — CAR 3
  6. Q3 · 4:41CAR Touchdown

    (4:41) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-D.Chark for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — CAR 10
  7. Q4 · 13:52IND Touchdown

    (13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 27 — CAR 10
  8. Q4 · 8:14CAR Field goal

    (8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: IND 27 — CAR 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsPanthers
Offensive plays5471
Total yards201275 (edge)
Yards per play3.73.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.10 (edge)-0.30
Success rate37% (edge)37%
Dropback rate52%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.44
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.28-0.01 (edge)
Third downs4/127/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)16 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1217 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Panthers outgained Colts 275–201 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

24/39, 173 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-24.7 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

17/26, 127 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.0 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

16 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

18 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-6.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Hayden HurstTE

2/4 for 54 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 255132:00Punt
2INDIND 164192:54Punt
3CARCAR 10412:01Punt
4CARCAR 48611:54Punt
5INDIND 1815607:19Field goal +3
6CARCAR 255-41:40Punt
7INDIND 3610514:29Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 4410344:09Field goal +3
9INDIND 2512412:41Field goal +3
10CARCAR 257240:33Defensive touchdown
11CARCAR 252-70:20End of half
12INDIND 256-62:31Punt
13CARCAR 2316777:55Touchdown +7
14INDIND 258252:46Punt
15CARCAR 66703:08Defensive touchdown
16CARCAR 2515445:31Field goal +3
17INDIND 25743:11Punt
18CARCAR 39240:27Interception
19INDIND 38471:08Punt
20CARCAR 116181:31Turnover on downs
21INDCAR 29301:52End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew17/26127101-1.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor18472.60-6.4
Zack Moss7263.70-0.8
Gardner Minshew551.000.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman8864033%4.9
Jonathan Taylor5522121%1.9
Andrew Ogletree1319013%0.8
Isaiah McKenzie2312013%-0.9
Josh Downs111004%0.2
Kylen Granson02008%-1.7
Alec Pierce02008%-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shaquille Leonard730.000
Kenny Moore710.022
Darrell Baker420.001
Julian Blackmon410.000
Segun Olubi320.011
Jaylon Jones500.001
E.J. Speed300.000
Kwity Paye030.500
Rodney Thomas300.000
DeForest Buckner301.002

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young24/39173134-24.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard16583.60-1.7
Bryce Young5418.203.7
Miles Sanders6396.502.0
Raheem Blackshear100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Hayden Hurst2454011%0.0
Adam Thielen5629016%0.4
Stephen Sullivan4528014%-0.4
Miles Sanders3522014%-8.4
Tommy Tremble221205%1.5
Chuba Hubbard469016%-11.5
D.J. Chark23918%1.7
Raheem Blackshear11503%-0.1
Jonathan Mingo145011%-1.0
Terrace Marshall01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Frankie Luvu530.000
Donte Jackson410.000
Alex Cook140.000
Xavier Woods140.000
Brian Burns220.000
Derrick Brown220.001
Dicaprio Bootle300.001
Amare Barno120.000
LaBryan Ray120.000
Jammie Robinson120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -1.5
Closing total
45
IND moneyline
-130
CAR moneyline
+110

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 45; the game landed 40 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
75°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
IND 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Frank Reich