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2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis27
BY 14final margin
PanthersCarolina13
Indianapolis Colts 27 at Carolina Panthers 13. Final.
Colts -1.5 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Indianapolis Colts 27, Panthers 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 13:52, 2nd and 8, on Kenny Moore — 15.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:52 · 2nd and 8
Kenny Moore
Colts
(13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Indianapolis Colts 27–13. Biggest swing: Q4 13:52, Colts +15.0% win probability on one snap.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ1 8:14(8:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-57-C.Wooten at CAR 48.
12.6pts
Kenny MooreColtsQ2 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at CAR 49. 23-K.Moore for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Colts at 1 chunk play.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Colts169 of 176 plays carry both curves
(13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.0 for PanthersExpected points −10.03 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 134
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:52IND +15% win prob(13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:14CAR +13% win prob(8:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-57-C.Wooten at CAR 48.
2nd · 0:31IND +9% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at CAR 49. 23-K.Moore for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:47CAR +8% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right end to CAR 45 for 7 yards (13-T.Hill). PENALTY on CAR-13-T.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 45.
4th · 15:00CAR +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 81-H.Hurst pushed ob at IND 36 for 48 yards (25-R.Thomas).
1st · 4:37CAR +7% win prob(4:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on CAR-46-E.Leota, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at IND 27 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 26-yard field goal with 13:55 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:55Matt Gay·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+33–0
4th8:14Eddy Pineiro·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+327–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryPanthers
Colts3–5Panthers
201Total yards275
3.7Yards per play3.9
37%Success rate37%
33%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays6
12First downs17
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers3
The read
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Colts: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.44Panthers: −0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Colts: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.01Panthers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 54 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Panthers’s 71 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Panthers 2.
NotePanthers outgained Colts 275-201 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 12.2% in week 3.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Panthers14.3%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteIND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.3 points below their season mean of 22.3% and 1.8 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Every snap100%61 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Full-time95%58 snaps
75Will FriesG · Full-time95%58 snaps
73Blake FreelandT · Full-time95%58 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time89%54 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational49%30 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational44%27 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational38%23 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Situational21%13 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Situational20%12 snaps
9Juwann WinfreeWR · Situational10%6 snaps
62Wesley FrenchC · Situational5%3 snaps
65Josh SillsG · Situational5%3 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
64Arlington HambrightG · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Julius BrentsCBJack AndersonGZaire FranklinOLBAmeer SpeedSSBraden SmithTWill MalloryTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Sam EhlingerQB
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Calvin ThrockmortonG · Every snap100%71 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%71 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Every snap100%71 snaps
56Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%71 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%71 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Jonathan MingoWR · Every snap99%70 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Heavy rotation65%46 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation58%41 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational45%32 snaps
88Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational34%24 snaps
6Miles SandersRB · Rotational25%18 snaps
84Stephen SullivanTE · Situational21%15 snaps
3Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational10%7 snaps
Inactive · 6
David LongCBNash JensenGVonn BellSSRicky LeeTBrett TothTLaviska ShenaultWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:52 · Panthers · 2nd & 8 at IND 34 · gained nothing · -10.03 EP · −18.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 77 yards from the CAR 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
473
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR71-0.3061%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0761%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1629%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 25
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 15
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Colts 41
The period ended14 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Panthers 2
2nd quarter56 plays
Colts3Panthers0
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays
Colts9Panthers0
Colts10Panthers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Panthers 10
Colts10Panthers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Colts 17
Colts13Panthers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Panthers 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Colts19Panthers3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
Colts20Panthers3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Colts20Panthers9
Colts20Panthers10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Colts 5
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 6 to the Panthers 26
4th quarter46 plays
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Colts26Panthers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Colts 34
Colts27Panthers10
Colts27Panthers13
Field goal15 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Colts 31
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 45
Intercepted2 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 43
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Colts 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Panthers 26
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
