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Los Angeles Chargers 27 at New York Jets 6. Final.
Chargers -3 ✓U 41 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Jets 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:35, 4th and 6 — 12.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:35 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Chargers
(13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.2
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.
Los Angeles Chargers 27–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:35, Chargers +12.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Garrett WilsonChargersQ1 11:02(11:02) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 17-G.Wilson to LAC 37 for 7 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at LAC 35, RECOVERED by LAC-3-D.James at LAC 29.
7.9pts
Zach WilsonChargersQ1 6:35(6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at LAC 48 for -6 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by LAC-97-J.Bosa at 50.
11.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 17 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.37 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Chargers173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.2 for JetsExpected points −5.95 for JetsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:35LAC +12% win prob(13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:35LAC +11% win prob(6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at LAC 48 for -6 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by LAC-97-J.Bosa at 50.
1st · 11:02LAC +8% win prob(11:02) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 17-G.Wilson to LAC 37 for 7 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at LAC 35, RECOVERED by LAC-3-D.James at LAC 29.
1st · 5:14NYJ +4% win prob(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to NYJ 29 for 17 yards (57-C.Mosley).
1st · 3:17NYJ +3% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-3-J.Whitehead, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 20 yards (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on NYJ-3-J.Whitehead, Face Mask, 0 yards, enforced at NYJ 1.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derius Davis's 87-yard return touchdown with 13:35 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:35Derius Davis·87-yd return TD87-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+77–0
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Chargers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.37Jets: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Chargers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.42Jets: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Chargers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.23Jets: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 55 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Jets’s 77 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Jets 2.
NoteJets outgained Chargers 270-191 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 32.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 29.2% in week 8.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 9.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 8.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Jets32.4%
leaned — got home · +15.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.4%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 17.0% and 1.9 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Morstead punts−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:35 · Jets · 4th & 6 at NYJ 28 · gained nothing · -5.95 EP · −16.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 73 yards from the NYJ 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
34%
Yards
461
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.4579%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1282%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1329%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1457%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
Chargers6Jets0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 28
Chargers7Jets0
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chargers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 36
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Chargers 42
Chargers13Jets0
Chargers14Jets0
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Jets 1
Punt6 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Jets 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 27
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 26
Chargers14Jets3
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Chargers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 42
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 23
Chargers17Jets3
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Jets 37
3rd quarter35 plays
Chargers17Jets6
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chargers 11
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 32
Punt14 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Chargers 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 24
4th quarter47 plays
Chargers20Jets6
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jets 20
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 32
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jets 29 to midfield
Chargers26Jets6
Chargers27Jets6
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chargers 6
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
