2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Los Angeles Rams

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -3.5 ✓U 38 ✓Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Green Bay Packers 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:32, LA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:32LA 0 — GB 0LA ball · 1st & 10GB 54%

(3:32) 11-B.Rypien to GB 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 49. 11-B.Rypien sacked at LA 45 for -10 yards (34-J.Owens). FUMBLES (34-J.Owens) [34-J.Owens], RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at LA 44. 59-D.Campbell t

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:32LA +16% win prob(3:32) 11-B.Rypien to GB 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 49. 11-B.Rypien sacked at LA 45 for -10 yards (34-J.Owens). FUMBLES (34-J.Owens) [34-J.Owens], RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at LA 44. 59-D.Campbell to LA 41 for 3 yards (24-R.Freeman).
Q3 · 8:22LA +10% win prob(8:22) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 36 for 9 yards (4-J.Fuller). FUMBLES (4-J.Fuller), RECOVERED by LA-26-D.Shelley at GB 45. 26-D.Shelley to GB 36 for 9 yards (76-J.Runyan).
Q3 · 14:53LA +8% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to LA 42 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LA-44-A.Witherspoon at LA 42. 44-A.Witherspoon ran ob at LA 42 for no gain.
Q3 · 6:34LA +8% win prob(6:34) 8-L.Havrisik 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:22GB Touchdown
(14:22) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 0 — GB 7
Q2 · 1:47LA Field goal
(1:47) 8-L.Havrisik 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 3 — GB 7
Q3 · 2:13GB Field goal
(2:13) 17-A.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: LA 3 — GB 10
Q4 · 9:11GB Field goal
(9:11) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: LA 3 — GB 13
Q4 · 3:46GB Touchdown
(3:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 88-L.Musgrave for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 3 — GB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Packers
Offensive plays	55	65
Total yards	187	394 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.45	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	29%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

20/26, 228 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Brett RypienQB

13/28, 130 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.6 expected points added · -17.6% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

20 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

-7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

9 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Luke MusgraveTE

3/4 for 51 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Dontayvion WicksWR

4/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	8	22	3:33	Punt
2	GB	GB 8	10	33	5:36	Punt
3	LA	LA 26	4	-2	2:27	Fumble
4	GB	LA 41	8	41	4:05	Touchdown +7
5	LA	LA 20	5	6	1:26	Punt
6	GB	GB 38	5	24	1:48	Punt
7	LA	LA 10	4	9	1:33	Punt
8	GB	GB 40	4	9	2:04	Punt
9	LA	LA 10	13	56	5:46	Field goal +3
10	GB	GB 25	11	44	1:42	Missed field goal
11	GB	GB 47	2	11	0:15	Fumble
12	LA	LA 42	7	32	4:02	Punt
13	GB	GB 16	4	30	2:34	Fumble
14	LA	GB 36	4	5	1:40	Missed field goal
15	GB	GB 39	7	53	4:19	Field goal +3
16	LA	LA 25	8	28	2:14	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 48	4	-6	1:21	Punt
18	LA	LA 27	2	0	0:12	Interception
19	GB	50	7	34	4:15	Field goal +3
20	LA	LA 25	5	4	0:42	Punt
21	GB	GB 28	9	72	4:45	Touchdown +7
22	LA	LA 35	7	27	1:09	Turnover on downs
23	GB	GB 38	8	49	2:32	End of game

5 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brett Rypien	13/28	130	0	1	1	-14.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Royce Freeman	12	32	2.7	-6.0
Brett Rypien	3	19	6.3	1.3
Darrell Henderson	10	19	1.9	-3.0
Ben Skowronek	1	-2	-2.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	2	7	48	26%	-3.3
Puka Nacua	3	7	32	26%	2.2
Darrell Henderson	2	2	16	7%	-1.0
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	15	4%	1.1
Tutu Atwell	4	7	13	26%	-4.4
Austin Trammell	1	1	6	4%	-0.6
Royce Freeman	0	1	0	4%	-1.2
Tyler Higbee	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Byron Young	7	2	2.0	0
Jordan Fuller	2	5	0.0	0
Russ Yeast	4	3	0.0	0
Christian Rozeboom	2	5	0.0	0
Kobie Turner	3	3	1.0	0
Michael Hoecht	3	3	0.0	0
Quentin Lake	3	1	0.0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	1	0.0	1
Duke Shelley	4	0	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	2	2	1.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	20/26	228	1	0	4	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	20	73	3.6	1	-7.2
Emanuel Wilson	4	43	10.8	0	2.2
A.J. Dillon	9	40	4.4	0	-1.4
Jayden Reed	1	21	21.0	0	1.3
Jordan Love	4	7	1.8	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Luke Musgrave	3	4	51	1	16%	4.2
Dontayvion Wicks	4	4	49	0	16%	-1.2
Christian Watson	1	2	37	0	8%	2.1
Romeo Doubs	3	3	36	0	12%	3.4
Aaron Jones	4	6	26	0	24%	1.3
Jayden Reed	3	3	19	0	12%	-0.1
Josiah Deguara	1	1	7	0	4%	0.2
A.J. Dillon	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.6
Malik Heath	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Owens	5	4	1.0	0
Jaire Alexander	6	1	0.0	2
De'Vondre Campbell	3	3	0.0	0
Isaiah McDuffie	4	1	0.0	0
Rashan Gary	1	2	0.0	0
Keisean Nixon	3	0	0.0	0
Lukas Van Ness	2	0	0.0	0
Eric Wilson	2	0	0.0	0
Jon Runyan	1	0	0.0	0
Tedarrell Slaton	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -3.5
Closing total: 38
LA moneyline: +160
GB moneyline: -198

Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 38; the game landed 23 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LA 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Matt LaFleur