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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q1 3:32, 1st and 10, on Brett Rypien — 15.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:32 · 1st and 10
Brett Rypien
Packers
(3:32) 11-B.Rypien to GB 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 49. 11-B.Rypien sacked at LA 45 for -10 yards (34-J.Owens). FUMBLES (34-J.Owens) [34-J.Owens], RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at LA 44. 59-D.Campbell to LA 41 for 3 yards (24-R.Freeman).
Green Bay Packers 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:32, Packers +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Rams at 1 chunk play.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(3:32) 11-B.Rypien to GB 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 49. 11-B.Rypien sacked at LA 45 for -10 yards (34-J.Owens). FUMBLES (34-J.Owens) [34-J.Owens], RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at LA 44. 59-D.Campbell t
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Aaron Jones's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 14:22 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 55 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Packers’s 65 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Rams 0, Packers 5.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 8 against 42.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.3% in week 8 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
GB's play-action rate turned over: 8.2% in week 8 against 26.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-9.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 55 snaps
Packers-6.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.1 vs their 0.4 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Rams51.3%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 39 early downs
Packers42.0%leaned — ran early · −13.4 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Rams12.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers26.7%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Rams50.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.4 vs their 33.6%, and they swing ±28.5 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Packers33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 58%
Tendencies room →Rams20.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Packers18.8%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Rams20.0%leaned — got home · +6.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Packers12.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
GB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.0%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 55.4% and 1.2 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
20/26, 228 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected
Passing · LA
13/28, 130 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-14.6 expected points added · -17.6% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
4/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD
16% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Luke Musgrave banked 7.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 17.9 | −4.9 | 57% | 55% | 24% | 0% | 20 car, 73 yd, 1 TD · 4/6, 26 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.1 | +7.6 | 83% | 87% | 16% | 18% | 3/4, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 228 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 7 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +2.1 | 39% | 42% | 12% | 8% | 1 car, 21 yd · 3/3, 19 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +1.1 | 32% | 45% | 16% | 21% | 4/4, 49 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +2.5 | 86% | 77% | 12% | 20% | 3/3, 36 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 5.3 | −0.8 | 40% | 52% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 40 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.3 | 78% | 81% | 8% | 43% | 1/2, 37 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 4.3 | +2.3 | 11% | 3% | 0% | — | 4 car, 43 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 18% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 39% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:32) 11-B.Rypien to GB 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 49. 11-B.Rypien sacked at LA 45 for -10 yards (34-J.Owens). FUMBLES (34-J.Owens) [34-J.Owens], RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at LA 44. 59-D.Campbell to LA 41 for 3 yards (24-R.Freeman).
Q1 3:32 · Rams · 1st & 10 at GB 45 · lost 11 · -6.36 EP · −16.2% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 72 yards from the GB 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Rams0
Packers6Rams0Packers7Rams3Packers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Rams3Packers10Rams3Packers13Rams3Packers19Rams3Packers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | 13/28 | 130 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −14.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Brett Rypien | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Darrell Henderson | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 26% | −3.3 |
| Puka Nacua | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 26% | +2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Young | 7 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russ Yeast | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/26 | 228 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_LA_GB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 38; the game landed 23 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 26% | −4.4 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kobie Turner | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duke Shelley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 73 |
| 3.6 |
| 1 |
| −7.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | +2.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 | 16% | +4.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 16% | −1.2 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 24% | +1.3 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12% | −0.1 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Owens | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Runyan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
