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2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Deutsche Bank Park
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q2 0:47, 2nd and 7, on Tyreek Hill — 13.7 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:47 · 2nd and 7
Tyreek Hill
Chiefs
(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Kansas City Chiefs 21–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:47, Chiefs +13.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.08 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook fo
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashee Rice's 11-yard touchdown catch with 12:08 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Rashee Rice11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 58 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Chiefs 2.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's play-action rate, 32.4%, is past their previous high of 28.9% in week 2 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.7 pts in week 8 against −8.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 8 against 55.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.0% in week 8 against 15.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
MIA's play-action rate turned over: 40.8% in week 8 against 23.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-8.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 58 snaps
Chiefs9.8 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins57.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 45 early downs
Chiefs55.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Dolphins23.7%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chiefs32.4%off script — faked the run · +16.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+2.20× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 134%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.2%.
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Dolphins26.5%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Chiefs31.6%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 40%
Tendencies room →Dolphins14.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Chiefs15.8%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
KC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 32.4%, 16.3 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
21/34, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.5 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
Passing · KC
20/30, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.4 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Raheem Mostert banked 7.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | +2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 185 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 24 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 14.5 | +7.1 | 56% | 42% | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 85 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.5 | −4.8 | 90% | 87% | 30% | 27% | 1 car, 3 yd · 8/10, 62 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 12.4 | −0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/34, 193 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 10.4 | +7.1 | 25% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +1.0 | 65% | 74% | 15% | 31% | 1/5, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashee RiceWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +6.1 | 68% | 56% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 8.4 | −3.0 | 54% | 53% | 18% | 35% | 1 car, 12 yd · 3/6, 42 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Receiving Back | 6.8 | +0.4 | 17% | 21% | 12% | 4% | 2 car, 6 yd · 3/4, 32 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.6 | −2.7 | 68% | 62% | 4% | 0% | 16 car, 66 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +1.3 | 52% | 50% | 11% | 14% | 3/3, 34 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.3 | 25% | 26% | 11% | 11% | 2/3, 33 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.8 | 84% | 84% | 9% | 1% | 3/3, 17 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.6 | 77% | 76% | 14% | 0% | 3/4, 14 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.2 | 55% | 62% | 11% | 34% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.4 | 22% | 15% | 11% | 0% | 3/3, 10 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −7.5 | 63% | 71% | 18% | 46% | 2/5, 15 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 3.2 | −3.1 | 30% | 34% | 9% | 1% | 3 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.1 | −0.3 | 43% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| La'Mical PerineRB | 0.1 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 37% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:47 · Dolphins · 2nd & 7 at KC 30 · lost 7 · -9.80 EP · −10.4% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 95 yards from the KC 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Chiefs6Dolphins0Chiefs7Dolphins0Chiefs13Dolphins0Chiefs14How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Dolphins0Chiefs20Dolphins0Chiefs21Dolphins6Chiefs21Dolphins7Chiefs21Dolphins13Chiefs21Dolphins14Chiefs21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/34 | 193 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 85 | 7.1 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 30% | −6.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 18% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/30 | 185 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_MIA_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 51; the game landed 35 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 16.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 12% | +2.8 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 15% | +0.9 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| DeShon Elliott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 |
| 66 |
| 4.1 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| La'Mical Perine | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 11% | +1.8 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +2.6 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7% | +3.9 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 18% | −1.8 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −2.0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | +0.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| La'Mical Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent McDuffie | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
