2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Deutsche Bank Park

Miami Dolphins

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -1 ✓U 51 ✓Chiefs closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Kansas City Chiefs 21–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:47, MIA +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:47MIA 0 — KC 20MIA ball · 2nd & 7KC 81%

(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook fo

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:47MIA +14% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:31KC +7% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 24-S.Moore to MIA 24 for 23 yards (21-D.Elliott).
Q4 · 1:03MIA +7% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 31, and recovers at KC 44.
Q4 · 5:57MIA +7% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 26-S.Ahmed right end to KC 44 for -6 yards (50-W.Gay).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:08KC Touchdown
(12:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — KC 7
Q2 · 2:37KC Touchdown
(2:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-J.McKinnon for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — KC 14
Q2 · 0:47KC Touchdown
(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — KC 21
Q3 · 4:52MIA Touchdown
(4:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 11-C.Wilson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — KC 21
Q3 · 0:27MIA Touchdown
(:27) 31-R.Mostert left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — KC 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Chiefs
Offensive plays	58	53
Total yards	292 (edge)	270
Yards per play	5.0	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	41%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.08
Third downs	3/12	3/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/34, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/30, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.4 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

12 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

16 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

8/10 for 62 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -6.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

3/6 for 42 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	9	75	2:57	Touchdown +7
2	MIA	MIA 25	6	8	2:50	Punt
3	KC	KC 24	6	20	2:35	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 18	7	38	4:34	Punt
5	KC	KC 9	6	13	2:04	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 30	5	11	1:35	Punt
7	KC	KC 17	4	-2	1:35	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 44	4	10	0:51	Punt
9	KC	KC 5	14	95	8:28	Touchdown +7
10	MIA	MIA 25	6	38	1:58	Defensive touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	0:25	Punt
12	KC	KC 32	1	0	0:08	End of half
13	MIA	MIA 25	5	10	1:46	Punt
14	KC	KC 13	6	29	3:17	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 20	9	75	5:10	Touchdown +7
16	KC	KC 25	6	7	2:35	Fumble
17	MIA	KC 27	5	23	1:50	Touchdown +7
18	KC	KC 21	9	24	3:15	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 11	13	30	7:57	Punt
20	KC	KC 10	4	9	1:42	Punt
21	MIA	MIA 25	6	44	1:28	Turnover on downs
22	KC	KC 44	2	0	1:00	End of game

4 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 95 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	21/34	193	1	0	3	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	12	85	7.1	1	3.3
Jaylen Waddle	1	12	12.0	0	1.0
Tua Tagovailoa	2	7	3.5	0	-2.0
Jeffery Wilson	2	6	3.0	0	-0.4
Salvon Ahmed	3	4	1.3	0	-1.3
Tyreek Hill	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	8	10	62	0	30%	-6.4
Jaylen Waddle	3	6	42	0	18%	1.0
Jeffery Wilson	3	4	32	0	12%	2.8
Cedrick Wilson	1	5	31	1	15%	0.9
Durham Smythe	3	3	17	0	9%	1.7
Salvon Ahmed	2	3	8	0	9%	-1.5
Alec Ingold	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.6
Raheem Mostert	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jevon Holland	2	6	0.0	0
David Long Jr.	2	5	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	4	3	0.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	2	3	1.0	0
DeShon Elliott	3	1	0.0	0
Kader Kohou	3	0	0.0	1
Bradley Chubb	1	1	1.0	1
Christian Wilkins	2	0	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	1	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	2	0	0.0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	20/30	185	2	0	2	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	16	66	4.1	-0.4
Patrick Mahomes	6	24	4.0	1.1
Jerick McKinnon	1	2	2.0	-0.3
La'Mical Perine	1	1	1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Gray	3	3	34	0	11%	1.8
Skyy Moore	2	3	33	0	11%	2.6
Jerick McKinnon	2	2	22	1	7%	2.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	3	22	0	11%	-0.3
Kadarius Toney	1	1	18	0	4%	1.6
Rashee Rice	2	2	17	1	7%	3.9
Justin Watson	2	5	15	0	18%	-1.8
Travis Kelce	3	4	14	0	14%	-2.0
Mecole Hardman	3	3	10	0	11%	0.0
Isiah Pacheco	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
La'Mical Perine	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Trent McDuffie	7	3	0.0
Drue Tranquill	4	4	0.0
Jaylen Watson	3	2	1.0
Leo Chenal	2	3	1.0
Bryan Cook	2	2	0.0
Willie Gay	4	0	0.0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	1	0.0
Michael Danna	1	1	0.0
Justin Reid	2	0	0.0
George Karlaftis	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -1
Closing total: 51
MIA moneyline: -105
KC moneyline: -115

Chiefs closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 51; the game landed 35 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Deutsche Bank Park
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: MIA 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Andy Reid