2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -3.5 upsetO 38.5 ✓Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, ATL +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:27MIN 30 — ATL 28MIN ball · 3rd & 4MIN 51%

(:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:27ATL +32% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:52ATL +32% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).
Q2 · 7:45MIN +20% win prob(7:45) 15-J.Dobbs sacked at MIN 22 for -4 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (17-A.Ebiketie) [17-A.Ebiketie], touched at MIN 22, RECOVERED by ATL-0-L.Carter at MIN 20. 0-L.Carter to MIN 1 for 19 yards (84-J.Oliver).
Q3 · 2:20MIN +18% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at ATL 42. 7-B.Murphy ran ob at ATL 24 for 18 yards (81-J.Smith).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:11ATL Field goal
(7:11) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: MIN 0 — ATL 3
Q1 · 2:23MIN Field goal
(2:23) 1-G.Joseph 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — ATL 3
Q2 · 14:12ATL Safety
(14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (93-C.Campbell).
Score after this play: MIN 3 — ATL 5
Q2 · 9:02ATL Field goal
(9:02) 6-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — ATL 8
Q2 · 5:35ATL Field goal
(5:35) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — ATL 11
Q2 · 1:00MIN Touchdown
(1:00) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-A.Mattison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 10 — ATL 11
Q3 · 12:20ATL Field goal
(12:20) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on MIN-20-J.Ward, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
Score after this play: MIN 10 — ATL 14
Q3 · 8:16MIN Field goal
(8:16) 1-G.Joseph 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 13 — ATL 14
Q3 · 7:04ATL Touchdown
(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 13 — ATL 21
Q3 · 2:29MIN Touchdown
(2:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: MIN 21 — ATL 21
Q4 · 14:22MIN Field goal
(14:22) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 24 — ATL 21
Q4 · 2:13ATL Touchdown
(2:13) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-15-V.Jefferson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 24 — ATL 28
Q4 · 0:27MIN Touchdown
(:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 31 — ATL 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Falcons
Offensive plays	73	66
Total yards	366	370 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	40% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	66%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.32 (edge)
Third downs	7/16	10/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Taylor HeinickeQB

21/38, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · -7.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Joshua DobbsQB

20/30, 158 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Joshua DobbsQB

7 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

11 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Jonnu SmithTE

5/6 for 100 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

7/12 for 69 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	9	22	3:52	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 8	4	8	2:09	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 32	5	34	1:53	Field goal +3
4	MIN	MIN 25	10	78	4:46	Field goal +3
5	ATL	ATL 25	8	39	2:27	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 7	3	-7	0:49	Safety
7	ATL	ATL 38	11	38	5:07	Field goal +3
8	MIN	MIN 25	4	-5	1:24	Fumble
9	ATL	MIN 1	4	1	2:01	Field goal +3
10	MIN	MIN 25	15	60	4:37	Touchdown +7
11	ATL	ATL 25	8	18	0:46	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 40	1	0	0:09	End of half
13	MIN	MIN 25	4	5	1:13	Fumble
14	ATL	MIN 30	4	-6	1:32	Field goal +3
15	MIN	MIN 25	9	64	4:02	Field goal +3
16	ATL	ATL 25	6	80	1:19	Touchdown +7
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	5	1:42	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 18	1	14	0:18	Fumble
19	MIN	ATL 40	7	42	2:34	Touchdown +8
20	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
21	MIN	ATL 24	5	11	2:54	Field goal +3
22	ATL	ATL 25	8	30	1:45	Punt
23	MIN	MIN 20	9	30	3:27	Punt
24	ATL	ATL 21	14	84	6:58	Touchdown +7
25	MIN	MIN 25	13	75	1:46	Touchdown +7
26	ATL	ATL 25	5	16	0:22	End of game

12 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	20/30	158	2	0	3	-3.9
Jaren Hall	5/6	78	0	0	0	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	7	66	9.4	1	7.2
Alexander Mattison	16	44	2.8	0	-4.6
Cam Akers	8	25	3.1	0	-2.7
Jaren Hall	2	11	5.5	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	7	12	69	0	34%	3.3
Jordan Addison	5	7	52	0	20%	1.4
Alexander Mattison	2	2	49	1	6%	5.4
Johnny Mundt	1	1	18	0	3%	1.1
K.J. Osborn	2	2	17	0	6%	3.7
Brandon Powell	2	3	15	1	9%	2.4
Cam Akers	3	3	13	0	9%	-0.5
Trishton Jackson	1	3	2	0	9%	-1.0
Josh Oliver	2	2	1	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	7	2	1.0	0	1
Danielle Hunter	3	4	0.0	0	0
Akayleb Evans	4	2	0.0	0	0
Harrison Phillips	2	4	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	2	3	0.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	2	2	0.0	0	1
D.J. Wonnum	3	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	2	2	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	3	0	0.0	1	2
NaJee Thompson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	21/38	268	1	1	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	11	51	4.6	0	-5.4
Tyler Allgeier	12	39	3.3	1	-1.6
Taylor Heinicke	3	20	6.7	0	1.5
Jonnu Smith	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jonnu Smith	5	6	100	1	18%	7.6
KhaDarel Hodge	3	6	60	0	18%	2.7
Kyle Pitts	4	5	56	0	15%	5.4
Mack Hollins	3	3	36	0	9%	1.8
Van Jefferson	1	4	14	0	12%	-2.3
Bijan Robinson	2	4	8	0	12%	-1.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Damiere Byrd	0	2	0	0	6%	-6.8
Tyler Allgeier	2	3	-9	0	9%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kaden Elliss	5	4	0.0	1
Nate Landman	4	5	1.0	1
Richie Grant	4	4	0.0	2
David Onyemata	3	5	1.0	0
Jessie Bates	5	3	0.0	1
Jeff Okudah	3	2	0.0	1
Calais Campbell	4	0	1.0	0
A.J. Terrell	2	0	0.0	0
Arnold Ebiketie	2	0	1.0	0
Jonnu Smith	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3.5
Closing total: 38.5
MIN moneyline: +160
ATL moneyline: -192

Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 59 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: MIN 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Arthur Smith