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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 31 at Atlanta Falcons 28. Final.
Falcons -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Minnesota Vikings 31, Falcons 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:27, 3rd and 4, on Brandon Powell — 32.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:27 · 3rd and 4
Brandon Powell
Vikings
(:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 38.5 ✓
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, Vikings +32.4% win probability on one snap.
32.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joshua DobbsFalconsQ2 7:45(7:45) 15-J.Dobbs sacked at MIN 22 for -4 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (17-A.Ebiketie) [17-A.Ebiketie], touched at MIN 22, RECOVERED by ATL-0-L.Carter at MIN 20. 0-L.Carter to MIN 1 for 19 yards (84-J.Oliver).
19.9pts
Joshua DobbsVikingsQ4 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).
32.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 18 on third down, against Vikings at 7 of 16 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 7 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Vikings183 of 192 plays carry both curves
(:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −32.4 for FalconsExpected points −2.79 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:27ATL +32% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:52ATL +32% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).
2nd · 7:45MIN +20% win prob(7:45) 15-J.Dobbs sacked at MIN 22 for -4 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (17-A.Ebiketie) [17-A.Ebiketie], touched at MIN 22, RECOVERED by ATL-0-L.Carter at MIN 20. 0-L.Carter to MIN 1 for 19 yards (84-J.Oliver).
3rd · 2:20MIN +18% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at ATL 42. 7-B.Murphy ran ob at ATL 24 for 18 yards (81-J.Smith).
3rd · 7:04ATL +16% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:41ATL +14% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end to MIN 35 for 13 yards (22-H.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Powell's 6-yard touchdown catch with 0:27 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:11Younghoe Koo·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+30–3
1st2:23Greg Joseph·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–3
2nd14:12Calais Campbell·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–5
2nd9:02Younghoe Koo·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–8
2nd5:35Younghoe Koo·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–11
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Falcons, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Vikings: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Vikings: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.32Falcons: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 73 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Falcons’s 66 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Falcons 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 34.4% in week 8 against 10.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Falcons10.4%
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 36.9 points below their season mean of 36.9% and 1.3 times their own 27.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%75 snaps
67Ed IngramG · Every snap100%75 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%75 snaps
76David QuessenberryG · Every snap100%75 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%75 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time97%73 snaps
15Joshua DobbsQB · Full-time85%64 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time84%63 snaps
9Trishton JacksonWR · Heavy rotation71%53 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Heavy rotation69%52 snaps
2Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation56%42 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational32%24 snaps
31Cam AkersRB · Rotational31%23 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational17%13 snaps
16Jaren HallQB · Situational15%11 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Situational8%6 snaps
13N'Keal HarryWR · Situational8%6 snaps
Inactive · 8
Dean LowryDELewis CineFSEzra ClevelandGBrian AsamoahILBKene NwangwuRBChristian DarrisawTNick MuseTEJalen NailorWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Austin SchlottmannC
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%69 snaps
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%69 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
15Van JeffersonWR · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational42%29 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational35%24 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
14Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational28%19 snaps
43Tucker FiskTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
18Mack HollinsWR · Situational20%14 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Situational13%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Joe GazianoDETravis BellDTKeith SmithFBJovaughn GwynGLogan WoodsideQBDeMarcco HellamsSSDrake LondonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Dobbs scrambles+34% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).
Q4 0:52 · Vikings · 4th & 7 at ATL 34 · gained 22 · +3.18 EP · +33.9% win probability
181 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 79 yards from the ATL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
36%
Yards
735
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0458%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38-0.1853%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3650%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14-0.2050%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.8283%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.24100%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Vikings 48
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 16
Vikings0Falcons3
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Vikings 34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings3Falcons3
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Vikings 36
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt1 play
Vikings3Falcons5
Vikings3Falcons8
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Vikings 24
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Vikings3Falcons11
Field goal5 plays
Vikings9Falcons11
Vikings10Falcons11
Touchdown17 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 2
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 38
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
Vikings10Falcons14
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 28
Vikings13Falcons14
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 14
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Vikings13Falcons20
Vikings13Falcons21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 45
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
Fumble lost1 play
Vikings19Falcons21
Vikings21Falcons21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 13
4th quarter56 plays
Vikings24Falcons21
Field goal2 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 13
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Vikings 45
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 20 to midfield
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Vikings24Falcons27
Vikings24Falcons28
Touchdown16 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Vikings 5
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Vikings30Falcons28
Vikings31Falcons28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.6 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3.5
Closing total
38.5
Vikings moneyline
+160
Falcons moneyline
-192
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 59 — over by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Arthur Smith
4th · 0:05MIN +13% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep right (7-B.Murphy).
4th · 1:19ATL +13% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 3-J.Addison pushed ob at ATL 37 for 24 yards (27-R.Grant). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
