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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q2 13:59, 4th and 16 — 8.0 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:59, Giants +8.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:59 · 4th and 16
Unnamed on the sheet
Giants
(13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
8.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jakobi Meyers's 17-yard rushing touchdown with 9:50 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Wan'Dale Robinson9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tommy DeVito · two-point no good+66–277 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Raiders’s 59 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Raiders 4.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's play-action rate, 36.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
LV's early-down pass rate, 38.6%, is past their previous low of 42.6% in week 6 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
LV's sack or hit rate, 20.9%, is past their previous high of 16.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.4% in week 8 against 4.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 8 against 11.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 27.5% in week 8 against 64.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-4.3 ptsright on their number · −2.5 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 62 snaps
Raiders-11.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.1 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Giants64.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 45 early downs
Raiders38.6%leaned — ran early · −15.9 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 46%
Tendencies room →Giants11.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Raiders36.0%leaned — faked the run · +14.4 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 146%
Fourth Down room →Giants60.0%right on their number · +13.7 vs their 46.3%, and they swing ±39.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders16.7%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Giants28.0%inside their normal wobble · −15.2 vs their 43.2%, and they swing ±18.6 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Raiders23.3%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 30%
Tendencies room →Giants4.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Raiders20.9%leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
LV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.0%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 21.6% and 1.5 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
16/25, 209 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
7.6 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
15/20, 175 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-14.9 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Wan'Dale Robinson banked 5.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.8 | +1.9 | 78% | 72% | 0% | — | 26 car, 98 yd, 2 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.3 | +0.9 | 75% | 72% | 14% | 1% | 16 car, 90 yd · 3/4, 23 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 13.5 | +3.5 | 82% | 84% | 21% | 23% | 1 car, 17 yd, 1 TD · 2/5, 38 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.5 | +5.5 | 54% | 51% | 17% | 10% | 4/5, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | +0.3 | 81% | 88% | 24% | 23% | 4/7, 59 yd |
| Tommy DeVitoQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | −1.8 | 67% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 175 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 17 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB · Starter QB | 8.4 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 209 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −0.3 | 47% | 36% | 13% | 35% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 52 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.4 | −4.8 | 88% | 96% | 29% | 37% | 4/7, 34 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +1.8 | 86% | 84% | 10% | 8% | 3/3, 43 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +0.5 | 22% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 2/3, 32 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 4.5 | +0.4 | 13% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 2 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −7.0 | 59% | 63% | 17% | 53% | 2/5, 19 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.8 | 22% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.5 | 88% | 76% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.1 | 15% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 2.1 | −1.6 | 29% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.7 | 48% | 56% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB | 1.9 | −3.0 | 33% | — | 0% | — | 4/9, 25 yd · 2 car, 9 yd |
| Deon JacksonRB | 0.2 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jesper HorstedTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 49% | 47% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | -0.2 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:13) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYG 25 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-D.Banks).
Q1 11:13 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at NYG 49 · gained 24 · +1.97 EP · +7.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 84 yards from the NYG 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Raiders6Giants0Raiders7Giants0Raiders13Giants0Raiders14Giants0Raiders20Giants0Raiders21Giants0Raiders24Giants0Raiders27Giants6Raiders27Giants6Raiders30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 15/20 | 175 | 1 | 2 | 6 | −14.9 |
| Daniel Jones | 4/9 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 16 | 90 | 5.6 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Tommy DeVito | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 24% | −1.6 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier McKinney | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A'Shawn Robinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 16/25 | 209 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_NYG_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 36 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Daniel Jones | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| 10% |
| +0.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 17% | +2.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 14% | +3.0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17% | −3.8 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +1.0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −5.0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.4 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah McFadden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jihad Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 98 | 3.8 | 2 | −1.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Zamir White | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 21% | −0.0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 29% | +0.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 6 | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Amari Burney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Koonce | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyree Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
