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Las Vegas Raiders 30, Giants 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 13:59, 4th and 16 — 8.0 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:59 · 4th and 16
Unnamed on the sheet
Giants
(13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
Dome
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 24.
Las Vegas Raiders 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:59, Giants +8.0% win probability on one snap.
8.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jakobi MeyersRaidersQ1 11:13(11:13) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYG 25 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-D.Banks).
7.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ2 11:28(11:28) 6-A.Cole punts 69 yards to NYG 3, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 20 for 17 yards (51-M.Koonce).
8.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Giants153 of 166 plays carry both curves
(13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
Swing −8.0 for RaidersExpected points −0.26 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:59LV +8% win prob(13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
2nd · 11:28LV +8% win prob(11:28) 6-A.Cole punts 69 yards to NYG 3, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 20 for 17 yards (51-M.Koonce).
1st · 11:13LV +7% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYG 25 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-D.Banks).
2nd · 3:53NYG +6% win prob(3:53) 15-T.DeVito pass deep middle intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV 0. 21-A.Robertson to LV 40 for 40 yards (67-J.Pugh).
1st · 9:50LV +5% win prob(9:50) 16-J.Meyers left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:17LV +5% win prob(9:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to LV 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.
2nd · 6:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jakobi Meyers's 17-yard rushing touchdown with 9:50 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:50Jakobi Meyers·17-yd TD run17-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:07Daniel Carlson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–24
3rd8:27Daniel Carlson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–27
4th14:17Wan'Dale Robinson·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tommy DeVitofrom Tommy DeVito · two-point no good+66–27
4th9:33Daniel Carlson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–30
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryRaiders
Giants1–8Raiders
277Total yards334
4.4Yards per play5.7
38%Success rate47%
25%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays5
16First downs15
8Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Giants: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.00Raiders: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.47Giants: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.30Raiders: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Giants: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.22Raiders: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Raiders’s 59 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Raiders 4.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's play-action rate, 36.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 32.1% in week 8.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.4% in week 8 against 4.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 8 against 11.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 27.5% in week 8 against 64.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Raiders20.9%
leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.0%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 21.6% and 1.5 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%63 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%63 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%63 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Full-time86%54 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time81%51 snaps
73Evan NealT · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
15Tommy DeVitoQB · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Heavy rotation59%37 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
18Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational49%31 snaps
83Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational41%26 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Rotational33%21 snaps
31Matt BreidaRB · Rotational29%18 snaps
0Parris CampbellWR · Situational22%14 snaps
79Tyre PhillipsT · Situational22%14 snaps
34Deon JacksonRB · Situational2%1 snap
3Sterling ShepardWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Sean HarlowCGervarrius OwensFSJordon RileyNTJashaun CorbinRBJoshua MilesT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Mark GlowinskiGMarcus McKethanT
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%60 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%60 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%60 snaps
4Aidan O'ConnellQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Full-time88%53 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time88%53 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time82%49 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational48%29 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Rotational47%28 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Situational22%13 snaps
3DeAndre CarterWR · Situational15%9 snaps
22Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational13%8 snaps
35Zamir WhiteRB · Situational8%5 snaps
19D.J. TurnerWR · Situational5%3 snaps
80Jesper HorstedTE · Situational2%1 snap
54Netane MutiG · Situational2%1 snap
71Justin HerronT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Isaac RochellDEByron YoungDTJakob JohnsonFBDivine DeabloMLBLuke MastersonOLBBrian HoyerQBThayer MunfordT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell pass+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:13) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYG 25 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-D.Banks).
Q1 11:13 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at NYG 49 · gained 24 · +1.97 EP · +7.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 84 yards from the NYG 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
38%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2273%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0346%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0135%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.5928%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 29
Giants0Raiders6
Giants0Raiders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Giants 17
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Raiders 34
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Raiders 47
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 47
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 27
Giants0Raiders13
Giants0Raiders14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Giants 2
Intercepted4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Raiders 48
Giants0Raiders20
Giants0Raiders21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Giants 1
Intercepted2 plays
Giants0Raiders24
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 5
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Giants0Raiders27
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Giants 28
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 39
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
The period ended11 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Raiders 16
4th quarter45 plays
Giants6Raiders27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 9
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 28
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 30
Giants6Raiders30
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 23
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Raiders 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 36
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 31
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
