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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q2 10:43, 2nd and 4, on Lamar Jackson — 7.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 37–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:43, Seahawks +7.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:43 · 2nd and 4
Lamar Jackson
Seahawks
(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.41 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Gus Edwards's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:09 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 46 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Ravens’s 72 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 1, Ravens 7.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, is past their previous low of 5.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-1.8 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 46 snaps
Ravens0.1 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 78%
Tendencies room →Seahawks60.6%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 33 early downs
Ravens44.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 59 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Seahawks12.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.4 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens13.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.7 vs their 25.7%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens33.3%inside their normal wobble · +16.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±18.8 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Seahawks27.0%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens42.4%leaned — sent pressure · +18.7 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks2.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens15.2%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
BAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.4%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 23.7% and 1.5 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
21/26, 187 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.2 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
13/28, 157 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-14.7 expected points added · -13.3% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
6/7 for 63 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Keaton Mitchell banked 14.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton MitchellRB | 20.4 | +14.3 | 18% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 138 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -4 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 17.2 | +12.3 | 18% | 18% | 0% | — | 5 car, 52 yd, 2 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.0 | −0.5 | 58% | 74% | 31% | 25% | 9/10, 80 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Featured Receiver | 14.6 | −1.1 | 46% | 63% | 22% | 22% | 5/7, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | +2.4 | 82% | 88% | 28% | 23% | 6/7, 63 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −8.9 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 21/26, 187 yd · 10 car, 60 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | 0.0 | 25% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 4/4, 42 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 6.3 | −2.9 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 5/7, 38 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 8 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −6.4 | 90% | 97% | 32% | 42% | 3/8, 32 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −2.5 | 86% | 91% | 16% | 27% | 1/4, 50 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −4.1 | 57% | 61% | 16% | 40% | 3/5, 28 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 4.0 | −5.5 | 63% | 68% | 3% | 9% | 13 car, 40 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.2 | 21% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.7 | −4.2 | 49% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 9 car, 16 yd · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 2.7 | −8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/28, 157 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 2.3 | −1.6 | 55% | 64% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.3 | 68% | 79% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.1 | 45% | 42% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 55% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 53% | 52% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 22% | 12% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
Q2 10:43 · Ravens · 2nd & 4 at SEA 30 · lost 8 · -5.60 EP · −10.9% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 84 yards from the BAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
Ravens6Seahawks0Ravens7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Seahawks0Ravens13Seahawks0Ravens14Seahawks3Ravens14Seahawks3Ravens17Seahawks3Ravens20Seahawks3Ravens23Seahawks3Ravens29Seahawks3Ravens30Seahawks3Ravens36Seahawks3Ravens37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 13/28 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −14.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Geno Smith |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 28% | +1.0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/26 | 187 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3.2 |
| Tyler Huntley | 5/7 | 38 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_SEA_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -6 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 40 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| −0.8 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 32% | −2.2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Rhattigan | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derick Hall | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 138 | 15.3 | 1 | +10.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Gus Edwards | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Justice Hill | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 9 | 10 | 80 | 0 | 31% | +1.4 |
| Odell Beckham | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 22% | +1.9 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +4.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | −2.3 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
