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Baltimore Ravens 37, Seahawks 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 10:43, 2nd and 4, on Lamar Jackson — 7.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:43 · 2nd and 4
Lamar Jackson
Seahawks
(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
Ravens closed -6 and covered, winning by 34.
Baltimore Ravens 37–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:43, Seahawks +7.2% win probability on one snap.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksQ1 12:04(12:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-70-K.Zeitler, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.
4.6pts
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ1 5:11(5:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 47 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
4.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.41 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 12 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Seahawks159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
Swing −7.2 for RavensExpected points −5.60 for RavensThe model had Seahawks 5 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:43SEA +7% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
1st · 12:04SEA +5% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-70-K.Zeitler, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.
1st · 5:11BAL +4% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 47 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
1st · 2:56BAL +4% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely to BAL 41 for 17 yards (56-J.Brooks).
2nd · 0:59SEA +4% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 40 for 15 yards (22-T.Brown). FUMBLES (22-T.Brown), touched at BAL 41, RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at BAL 43. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 11:38BAL +4% win prob(11:38) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 31 for 8 yards (30-T.Simpson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gus Edwards's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:09 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:09Gus Edwards·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.45Seahawks: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.19Ravens: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.44Seahawks: −0.44 expected points added per play
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.45Seahawks: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 46 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Ravens’s 72 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 1, Ravens 7.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, is past their previous low of 5.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 8.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens15.2%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.4%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 23.7% and 1.5 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson sacked−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at SEA 39 for -9 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe), touched at SEA 38, RECOVERED by SEA-53-B.Mafe at SEA 37.
Q2 10:43 · Ravens · 2nd & 4 at SEA 30 · lost 8 · -5.60 EP · −10.9% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 84 yards from the BAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0953%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.5578%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR12+0.0325%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4278%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1833%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4833%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 35
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Ravens 43
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Ravens 11
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Ravens 49
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Seahawks 37
2nd quarter53 plays
Seahawks0Ravens6
Seahawks0Ravens7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 4
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Seahawks 30
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Seahawks 39
Seahawks0Ravens13
Seahawks0Ravens14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks3Ravens14
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Ravens 14
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended4 plays
Seahawks3Ravens17
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Seahawks 19
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Seahawks3Ravens20
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Seahawks 26
Punt6 plays
Seahawks3Ravens23
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Seahawks 12
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Seahawks3Ravens29
Seahawks3Ravens30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Seahawks 40
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Ravens 21
Seahawks3Ravens36
Seahawks3Ravens37
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Seahawks 6
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Seahawks 14
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Seahawks 4
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -6
Closing total
44.5
Seahawks moneyline
+220
Ravens moneyline
-270
Ravens closed -6 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 40 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs John Harbaugh
1st · 13:34SEA +4% win prob(13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to BAL 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
2nd · 12:11SEA +3% win prob(12:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 41. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 41 for no gain.
