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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q4 0:10, 1st and 10, on Tank Dell — 48.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 39–37 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, Texans +48.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:10 · 1st and 10
Tank Dell
Texans
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
48.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 7 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tank Dell's 15-yard touchdown catch with 0:10 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Tank Dell15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. Stroud · two-point no goodLead never changed again+637–3914 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — total yards.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Texans’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Texans 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's pass rate over expected, −9.1 pts, is past their previous low of −7.3 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
HOU's pass rate over expected, +4.0 pts, is past their previous high of +0.9 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 43.8%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.2% in week 8 against 67.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
TB's play-action rate turned over: 6.3% in week 8 against 32.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
TB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 8 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-9.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 63 snaps
Texans4.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.5 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 83%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers43.8%leaned — ran early · −10.6 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 48 early downs
Texans67.3%leaned — passed early · +13.1 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers32.4%leaned — faked the run · +9.6 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Texans22.2%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers50.0%inside their normal wobble · +21.4 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 76%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers26.7%inside their normal wobble · −12.6 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Texans14.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers15.6%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Texans14.7%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
TB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.1 pts, 7.3 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
30/42, 470 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
27.5 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected
Passing · TB
21/30, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.6 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected
Receiving · HOU
10/11 for 130 yds, 1 TD
29% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
C.J. Stroud banked 20.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 41.8 | +20.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/42, 470 yd, 5 TD |
| Tank DellWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.6 | +6.7 | 85% | 83% | 29% | 53% | 2 car, 2 yd · 6/11, 114 yd, 2 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.9 | +3.3 | 80% | 85% | 13% | 2% | 20 car, 73 yd, 2 TD · 4/4, 46 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 27.3 | +17.4 | 72% | 70% | 16% | 18% | 6/6, 153 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Alpha Receiver | 27.0 | +8.5 | 79% | 83% | 29% | 16% | 10/11, 130 yd, 1 TD |
| Cade OttonTE · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +8.4 | 100% | 100% | 30% | 28% | 6/9, 70 yd, 2 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | −4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 265 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 4 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +4.9 | 79% | 77% | 13% | 12% | 3/5, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.7 | +3.1 | 83% | 91% | 17% | 31% | 4/5, 87 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +0.8 | 73% | 85% | 13% | 22% | 3/4, 51 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Bell Cow Back | 4.6 | −6.9 | 75% | 64% | 5% | 0% | 13 car, 26 yd · 2/2, 0 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 3.6 | −8.0 | 88% | 91% | 20% | 18% | 2/6, 16 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 2.5 | −1.9 | 38% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 5 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.0 | 15% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 1.8 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.4 | 13% | 11% | 0% | — | 1 car, 12 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 0.4 | −2.1 | 12% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, -5 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 0.3 | −0.4 | 26% | 34% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 0:10 · Texans · 1st & 10 at TB 15 · gained 15 · +4.33 EP · +48.9% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
14 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 79 yards from the HOU 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers3
Texans0Buccaneers3Texans6Buccaneers3Texans7Buccaneers9Texans7Buccaneers10Texans7Buccaneers16Texans7Buccaneers17Texans7Buccaneers17Texans10Buccaneers20Texans10How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Buccaneers20Texans16Buccaneers23Texans16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers23Texans22How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers23Texans28Buccaneers23Texans30How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers29Texans30Buccaneers30Texans30Buccaneers30Texans33How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Buccaneers36Texans33Buccaneers37Texans33How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers37Texans39How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/30 | 265 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 2 | +2.3 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Baker Mayfield |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 | 17% | +6.4 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 30% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 30/42 | 470 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +27.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_TB_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 76 — over by 36.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 | −2.3 |
| +3.5 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 13% | +1.0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 13% | +4.7 |
| Chris Godwin | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 20% | −2.3 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Vita Vea | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hayes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 6 | 6 | 153 | 1 | 16% | +11.4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 10 | 11 | 130 | 1 | 29% | +9.1 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 11 | 114 | 2 | 29% | +6.9 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 13% | +4.3 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Andrew Beck | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavierre Thomas | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| M.J. Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
