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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37 at Houston Texans 39. Final.
Texans -2.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Houston Texans 39, Buccaneers 37 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:10, 1st and 10, on Tank Dell — 48.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:10 · 1st and 10
Tank Dell
Texans
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Dome
Texans closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 39–37 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, Texans +48.0% win probability on one snap.
48.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cade OttonBuccaneersQ4 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.3pts
Tank DellTexansQ4 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-N.Dell ran ob at TB 15 for 26 yards [50-V.Vea].
20.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 7 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Buccaneers175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing +48.0 for TexansExpected points +4.33 for TexansThe model had Buccaneers 4 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:10HOU +48% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 0:16HOU +21% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-N.Dell ran ob at TB 15 for 26 yards [50-V.Vea].
4th · 0:49HOU +18% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:15HOU +18% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:12HOU +17% win prob(12:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to HOU 1 for 53 yards (21-S.Nelson).
3rd · 12:32HOU +16% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 85-N.Brown for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tank Dell's 15-yard touchdown catch with 0:10 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:59Chase McLaughlin·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–0
4th0:10Tank Dell·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. Stroudfrom C.J. Stroud · two-point no goodLead never changed again+637–39
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryTexans
Buccaneers2–6Texans
332Total yards498
5.3Yards per play7.8
40%Success rate45%
23%Third-down rate27%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays10
19First downs27
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — total yards.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.30Texans: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Buccaneers: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.55Texans: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Buccaneers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.29Texans: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Texans’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Texans 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.2% in week 8 against 67.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
TB's play-action rate turned over: 6.3% in week 8 against 32.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
TB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 8 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Texans14.7%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.1 pts, 7.3 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+49% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 0:10 · Texans · 1st & 10 at TB 15 · gained 15 · +4.33 EP · +48.9% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 79 yards from the HOU 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
40%
Yards
830
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1760%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1874%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.5068%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1124%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Fumble lost4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Buccaneers3Texans0
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 17
Buccaneers3Texans6
Buccaneers3Texans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Buccaneers9Texans7
Buccaneers10Texans7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Texans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 10
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 38
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers16Texans7
Buccaneers17Texans7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 1
Buccaneers17Texans10
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 32
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 16 to midfield
3rd quarter40 plays
Buccaneers20Texans10
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Texans 31
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Buccaneers20Texans16
Touchdown3 plays
Buccaneers23Texans16
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Texans 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers23Texans22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Buccaneers 29
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Buccaneers 4
4th quarter61 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Buccaneers23Texans28
Buccaneers23Texans30
Touchdown4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Buccaneers29Texans30
Buccaneers30Texans30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Texans 1
Buccaneers30Texans33
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Buccaneers36Texans33
Buccaneers37Texans33
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Texans 14
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers37Texans39
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Buccaneers 15
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -2.5
Closing total
39.5
Buccaneers moneyline
+124
Texans moneyline
-148
Texans closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 76 — over by 36.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Buccaneers 10 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs DeMeco Ryans
4th · 1:13HOU +14% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to HOU 36 for 5 yards (4-T.Thomas, 94-K.Davis).
4th · 0:06TB +13% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer to TB 40 for 15 yards. Lateral to 70-R.Hainsey to TB 37 for -3 yards. Lateral to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 4 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o). FUMBLES (39-H.To'oTo'o), touched at TB 40, RECOVERED by HOU-30-D.Houston-Carson at TB 41. 30-D.Houston-Carson to TB 41 for no gain (78-T.Wirfs).
