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2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

37

Houston TexansWinner

39

HOU -2.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 39–37 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, HOU +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 0:10TB 37 — HOU 39HOU ball · 1st & 10TB 57%

(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:10HOU +48% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
  2. Q4 · 0:16HOU +21% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-N.Dell ran ob at TB 15 for 26 yards [50-V.Vea].
  3. Q4 · 0:49HOU +18% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 14:15HOU +18% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:59TB Field goal

    (12:59) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — HOU 0
  2. Q1 · 9:14HOU Touchdown

    (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. He is Out. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 3 — HOU 7
  3. Q1 · 2:19TB Touchdown

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-J.Greenard]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — HOU 7
  4. Q2 · 9:07TB Touchdown

    (9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — HOU 7
  5. Q2 · 5:22HOU Field goal

    (5:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: TB 17 — HOU 10
  6. Q3 · 12:42TB Field goal

    (12:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — HOU 10
  7. Q3 · 12:32HOU Touchdown

    (12:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 85-N.Brown for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — HOU 16
  8. Q3 · 9:28TB Field goal

    (9:28) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 23 — HOU 16
  9. Q3 · 6:05HOU Touchdown

    (6:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 3-N.Dell for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 23 — HOU 22
  10. Q4 · 14:15HOU Touchdown

    (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: TB 23 — HOU 30
  11. Q4 · 11:46TB Touchdown

    (11:46) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 30 — HOU 30
  12. Q4 · 8:48HOU Field goal

    (8:48) 33-D.Ogunbowale 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: TB 30 — HOU 33
  13. Q4 · 0:49TB Touchdown

    (:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 37 — HOU 33
  14. Q4 · 0:10HOU Touchdown

    (:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: TB 37 — HOU 39

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersTexans
Offensive plays6364
Total yards332498 (edge)
Yards per play5.37.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.150.30 (edge)
Success rate40%45% (edge)
Dropback rate54%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.360.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.29
Third downs3/133/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)710 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1927 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers11

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

30/42, 470 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

27.5 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

21/30, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.6 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

20 att, 73 yds, 2 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

13 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Noah BrownWR

6/6 for 153 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Dalton SchultzTE

10/11 for 130 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 25490:22Fumble
2TBHOU 425251:42Field goal +3
3HOUHOU 259603:46Touchdown +7
4TBTB 2515716:57Touchdown +7
5HOUHOU 9511:06Punt
6TBTB 364121:56Punt
7HOUHOU 10402:08Punt
8TBHOU 407402:58Touchdown +7
9HOUHOU 2511433:48Field goal +3
10TBTB 25562:17Punt
11HOUHOU 166193:00End of half
12TBTB 278272:22Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 252750:18Touchdown +6
14TBTB 25712:57Field goal +3
15HOUHOU 218893:24Touchdown +6
16TBTB 195-92:22Punt
17HOUHOU 4810544:26Touchdown +8
18TBTB 258752:28Touchdown +7
19HOUHOU 258692:58Field goal +3
20TBTB 27531:34Punt
21HOUHOU 22442:44Punt
22TBTB 3911663:41Touchdown +7
23HOUHOU 258750:40Touchdown +6
24TBTB 252150:06Fumble

14 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 89 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield21/3026520210.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White20733.622.3
Ke'Shawn Vaughn492.30-1.2
Baker Mayfield441.000.2
Chase Edmonds3-5-1.70-2.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans4587017%6.4
Cade Otton6970230%3.5
Trey Palmer3451013%1.0
Rachaad White4446013%4.7
Chris Godwin2616020%-2.3
Ke'Shawn Vaughn11-103%-1.6
Chase Edmonds11-103%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David820.000
Devin White441.000
Zyon McCollum510.001
Vita Vea400.000
Carlton Davis220.000
Calijah Kancey401.000
Shaquil Barrett301.000
Antoine Winfield110.000
Ryan Neal200.000
Josh Hayes110.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud30/4247050327.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary13262.00-4.7
Xavier Hutchinson11212.000.7
Mike Boone133.00-0.4
Tank Dell221.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Noah Brown66153116%11.4
Dalton Schultz1011130129%9.1
Tank Dell611114229%6.9
Nico Collins3554113%4.3
John Metchie111403%0.9
Andrew Beck22505%-1.2
Devin Singletary22005%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tavierre Thomas540.000
Blake Cashman250.000
Henry To'oTo'o230.000
Steven Nelson320.000
Denzel Perryman230.000
Jerry Hughes310.000
Khalil Davis221.001
Jalen Pitre220.001
Christian Harris310.001
M.J. Stewart210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Closing total
39.5
TB moneyline
+124
HOU moneyline
-148

Texans closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 76 — over by 36.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
TB 10 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs DeMeco Ryans