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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:28 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 2, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q4 0:11, 3rd and 5, on Kwon Alexander — 34.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:11, Steelers +34.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:11 · 3rd and 5
Kwon Alexander
Steelers
(:11) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle intended for 81-J.Whyle INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Alexander at PIT -1. Touchback.
34.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Titans at 3 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(:11) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle intended for 81-J.Whyle INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Alexander at PIT -1. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Diontae Johnson's 3-yard touchdown catch with 4:06 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Diontae Johnson3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny PickettLead never changed again+716–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 67 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Steelers 4.
Titans outgained Steelers 340-327 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 63.5%, is past their previous high of 59.6% in week 1 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.1% in week 8 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 30.2% in week 8 against 10.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.9% in week 8 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
TEN's play-action rate turned over: 46.9% in week 8 against 20.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.0% in week 8 against 42.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-4.6 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 67 snaps
Steelers-8.0 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Titans63.5%leaned — passed early · +12.0 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 52 early downs
Steelers42.6%right on their number · −5.5 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 52%
Tendencies room →Titans20.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Steelers13.3%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.6%.
Steelers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Titans10.0%leaned — sat back · −10.6 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Steelers36.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 30%
Tendencies room →Titans6.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Steelers22.7%leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
TEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.5%, 12.0 points above their season mean of 51.4% and 1.6 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
22/39, 262 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-3.7 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
19/30, 160 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.4 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Diontae Johnson banked 7.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.0 | +7.2 | 88% | 97% | 31% | 47% | 7/9, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.2 | +4.5 | 49% | 27% | 11% | 0% | 17 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 27 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 15.6 | −2.5 | 58% | 57% | 14% | 0% | 16 car, 69 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 7 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 14.3 | +4.1 | 40% | 43% | 10% | 0% | 11 car, 88 yd · 3/3, 25 yd |
| Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +4.1 | 30% | 47% | 14% | 18% | 4/5, 68 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.5 | −5.3 | 69% | 80% | 30% | 38% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/11, 60 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 160 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | −5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/39, 262 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 6.2 | −5.4 | 59% | 73% | 16% | 0% | 5 car, 18 yd · 4/6, 4 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 5.8 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −0.4 | 51% | 53% | 8% | 16% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/3, 23 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.2 | 42% | 36% | 5% | 11% | 1/2, 29 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | 0.0 | 62% | 67% | 10% | 3% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +2.0 | 58% | 44% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 23 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.3 | 72% | 77% | 7% | 10% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −6.5 | 89% | 93% | 17% | 18% | 2/5, -1 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.4 | 49% | 37% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.6 | 26% | 20% | 3% | 22% | 2 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trevon WescoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 53% | 27% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kevin RaderTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:11) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle intended for 81-J.Whyle INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Alexander at PIT -1. Touchback.
Q4 0:11 · Titans · 3rd & 5 at PIT 19 · gained nothing · -2.52 EP · −36.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 92 yards from the PIT 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans0
Steelers6Titans0Steelers7Titans3Steelers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Titans9Steelers7Titans10Steelers7Titans10Steelers10Titans13Steelers10Titans13Steelers13How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Titans16Steelers13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Titans16Steelers19Titans16Steelers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 22/39 | 262 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Philips | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 14% | +4.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 30% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amani Hooker | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 19/30 | 160 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_TEN_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 37; the game landed 36 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Will Levis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 5% | +1.4 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +1.9 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | −1.5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | +3.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16% | −4.8 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Avery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Monty Rice | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 88 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +2.5 |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Calvin Austin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 9 | 90 | 1 | 31% | +8.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Calvin Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 17% | −5.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Rush | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Porter | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Peterson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
