2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

New England Patriots

NE -2.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, WAS +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:38WAS 20 — NE 17NE ball · 2nd & 8WAS 67%

(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:38WAS +29% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
Q2 · 6:16NE +22% win prob(6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:23WAS +15% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at NE -6. 23-K.Dugger to NE 14 for 20 yards (3-B.Pringle).
Q4 · 2:41NE +15% win prob(2:41) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 43 for 19 yards (5-T.Way). Penalty on NE-14-T.Montgomery, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on NE-3-M.Wilson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 27 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:18WAS Field goal
(3:18) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 3 — NE 0
Q2 · 12:10WAS Touchdown
(12:10) 8-B.Robinson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NE 0
Q2 · 9:31NE Touchdown
(9:31) (No Huddle) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NE 7
Q2 · 6:16NE Touchdown
(6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NE 14
Q3 · 10:17NE Field goal
(10:17) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NE 17
Q3 · 6:58WAS Touchdown
(6:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 17 — NE 17
Q3 · 1:52WAS Field goal
(1:52) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — NE 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Patriots
Offensive plays	76	62
Total yards	433 (edge)	329
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.09
Success rate	42% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	67%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

29/45, 325 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.0 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

24/44, 220 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.0 expected points added · -12.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

9 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

18 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/8 for 73 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Jahan DotsonWR

4/8 for 69 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 36	5	8	1:37	Punt
2	NE	NE 16	11	45	4:49	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 39	9	42	5:20	Field goal +3
4	NE	NE 25	5	5	0:53	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 20	12	80	5:16	Touchdown +7
6	NE	NE 25	5	6	0:53	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 14	2	9	0:47	Fumble
8	NE	WAS 25	4	25	0:59	Touchdown +7
9	WAS	WAS 17	7	32	2:45	Punt
10	NE	NE 16	3	84	0:35	Touchdown +7
11	WAS	WAS 20	16	75	5:57	Interception
12	NE	NE 14	1	0	0:09	End of half
13	NE	NE 25	13	36	4:46	Field goal +3
14	WAS	WAS 25	9	75	3:23	Touchdown +7
15	NE	NE 25	7	16	2:12	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 24	8	65	2:50	Field goal +3
17	NE	NE 25	7	22	2:01	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 20	7	20	3:38	Punt
19	NE	NE 5	6	15	1:50	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 34	4	1	2:10	Punt
21	NE	NE 9	6	25	2:06	Punt
22	WAS	WAS 5	10	26	2:57	Punt
23	NE	NE 9	9	50	1:37	Interception
24	WAS	WAS 33	1	0	0:30	End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 84 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	29/45	325	1	1	3	5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	18	63	3.5	1	-3.8
Antonio Gibson	6	34	5.7	0	1.1
Sam Howell	5	27	5.4	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	5	8	73	0	18%	4.6
Jahan Dotson	4	8	69	1	18%	-2.6
Byron Pringle	3	4	55	0	9%	6.8
Antonio Gibson	5	5	42	0	11%	2.6
Dyami Brown	2	4	33	0	9%	1.7
Logan Thomas	4	5	31	0	11%	0.5
Jamison Crowder	4	6	23	0	14%	-1.6
Brian Robinson	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.6
John Bates	1	2	-5	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jamin Davis	4	5	1
Kendall Fuller	5	1	0
Kamren Curl	3	2	0
Khaleke Hudson	3	1	0
David Mayo	3	1	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	0	3
John Ridgeway	3	0	0
Emmanuel Forbes	3	0	3
James Smith-Williams	1	1	0
Byron Pringle	1	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	24/44	220	1	1	0	-6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	87	9.7	1	3.0
Ezekiel Elliott	6	17	2.8	0	-1.5
Mac Jones	3	3	1.0	0	-0.4
Demario Douglas	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	5	7	55	0	16%	2.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	6	7	51	0	16%	0.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	6	42	0	14%	0.5
Hunter Henry	4	6	39	1	14%	3.9
Ezekiel Elliott	3	5	15	0	12%	-1.4
Jalen Reagor	1	6	11	0	14%	-3.3
Tyquan Thornton	1	4	7	0	9%	-6.5
Mike Gesicki	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	9	3	2.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	3	5	1.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	5	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	5	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	5	1	0.0	1	1
Jahlani Tavai	1	4	0.0	0	0
Marte Mapu	4	1	0.0	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	1	2	0.0	0	0
Brenden Schooler	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 40.5
WAS moneyline: +130
NE moneyline: -155

Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 37 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: WAS 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Bill Belichick