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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 5, 2023 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 9
It turned at Q4 0:38, 2nd and 8, on Quan Martin — 29.5 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, Commanders +29.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:38 · 2nd and 8
Quan Martin
Commanders
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
29.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 2 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 9 of 17 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 12 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joey Slye's 30-yard field goal with 1:52 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Joey Slye30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+320–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryPatriots
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 76 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Patriots 2.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate, 2.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected, +6.2 pts, is past their previous high of +3.0 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 39.0% in week 8 against 13.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
NE's play-action rate turned over: 37.5% in week 8 against 10.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders8.0 ptsright on their number · +2.6 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 76 snaps
Patriots6.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.6 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 91%
Tendencies room →Commanders64.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 59 early downs
Patriots66.7%leaned — passed early · +11.0 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.7%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Patriots10.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Commanders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.4 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots33.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 58%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.0%leaned — sat back · −15.4 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Patriots31.4%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 35%
Tendencies room →Commanders2.2%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Patriots11.8%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 6.2 pts, 9.6 points above their season mean of -3.3 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
29/45, 325 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.0 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
24/44, 220 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.0 expected points added · -12.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rhamondre Stevenson banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 22.9 | +9.9 | 63% | 65% | 14% | 6% | 9 car, 87 yd, 1 TD · 4/6, 42 yd |
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/45, 325 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 27 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | +2.8 | 76% | 80% | 18% | 30% | 4/8, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +3.0 | 88% | 91% | 14% | 15% | 4/6, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Receiving Back | 12.6 | +2.4 | 44% | 53% | 11% | 0% | 6 car, 34 yd · 5/5, 42 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 12.3 | −0.2 | 86% | 84% | 18% | 17% | 5/8, 73 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.7 | +0.4 | 56% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 18 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 11.1 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/44, 220 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 3 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +0.8 | 36% | 41% | 16% | 9% | 6/7, 51 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +0.1 | 83% | 83% | 16% | 13% | 1 car, 0 yd · 5/7, 55 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +2.8 | 23% | 29% | 9% | 14% | 3/4, 55 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −1.5 | 73% | 84% | 11% | 5% | 4/5, 31 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −3.2 | 47% | 45% | 14% | 11% | 4/6, 23 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Receiving Back | 6.2 | −3.6 | 39% | 37% | 12% | 1% | 6 car, 17 yd · 3/5, 15 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −2.2 | 29% | 29% | 9% | 20% | 2/4, 33 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −8.6 | 77% | 67% | 14% | 31% | 1/6, 11 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −4.6 | 19% | 22% | 9% | 14% | 1/4, 7 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −3.6 | 47% | 37% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, -5 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 86% | 87% | 5% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ty MontgomeryWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Alex ArmahRB | 0.0 | — | 13% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chris RodriguezRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
Q4 0:38 · Patriots · 2nd & 8 at WAS 41 · gained nothing · -1.89 EP · −30.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders3
Patriots0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Commanders9Patriots0Commanders10Patriots0Commanders10Patriots6Commanders10Patriots7How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Commanders10Patriots13Commanders10Patriots14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Commanders10Patriots17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders16Patriots17Commanders17Patriots17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders20Patriots17How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 29/45 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 | −3.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Sam Howell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 18% | +4.6 |
| Jahan Dotson | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamin Davis | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/44 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_09_WAS_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 37 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 27 |
| 5.4 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| −2.6 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 9% | +6.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 11% | +2.6 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 14% | −1.6 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Khaleke Hudson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Mayo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| John Ridgeway | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Forbes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| James Smith-Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 87 | 9.7 | 1 | +3.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 16% | +2.7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 16% | +0.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 14% | +3.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −3.3 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −6.5 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 9 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marte Mapu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenden Schooler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
