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Washington Commanders 20 at New England Patriots 17. Final.
Patriots -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 9
Washington Commanders 20, Patriots 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:38, 2nd and 8, on Quan Martin — 29.5 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:38 · 2nd and 8
Quan Martin
Commanders
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
U 40.5 ✓
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, Commanders +29.5% win probability on one snap.
29.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsQ2 6:16(6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.0pts
Kyle DuggerPatriotsQ2 0:23(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at NE -6. 23-K.Dugger to NE 14 for 20 yards (3-B.Pringle).
15.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 2 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 9 of 17 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 12 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Commanders173 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
Swing −29.5 for PatriotsExpected points −1.89 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 3 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:38WAS +29% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
2nd · 6:16NE +22% win prob(6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:23WAS +15% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at NE -6. 23-K.Dugger to NE 14 for 20 yards (3-B.Pringle).
4th · 2:41NE +15% win prob(2:41) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 43 for 19 yards (5-T.Way). Penalty on NE-14-T.Montgomery, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on NE-3-M.Wilson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 27 - No Play.
4th · 1:02NE +15% win prob(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-J.Smith-Schuster to WAS 43 for 6 yards (13-E.Forbes).
3rd · 6:58NE +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joey Slye's 30-yard field goal with 1:52 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:18Joey Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+33–0
3rd10:17Chad Ryland·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+310–17
3rd6:58Jahan Dotson·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+717–17
3rd1:52Joey Slye·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryPatriots
Commanders6–2Patriots
433Total yards329
5.7Yards per play5.3
42%Success rate35%
53%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays2
22First downs17
3Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Commanders: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Commanders: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.14Patriots: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.05Patriots: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 76 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Patriots 2.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 2.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +6.2 pts, is past their previous high of +3.0 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 39.0% in week 8 against 13.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 37.5% in week 8 against 10.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Patriots11.8%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 6.2 pts, 9.6 points above their season mean of -3.3 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
Q4 0:38 · Patriots · 2nd & 8 at WAS 41 · gained nothing · -1.89 EP · −30.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR52-0.0371%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0267%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2069%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-0.3167%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1014%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 44
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Commanders 39
Commanders3Patriots0
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Patriots 17
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Patriots 41
2nd quarter48 plays
Commanders9Patriots0
Commanders10Patriots0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 9
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 31
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Commanders 16
Commanders10Patriots6
Commanders10Patriots7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 14
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 49
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Commanders10Patriots13
Commanders10Patriots14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted19 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Patriots 5
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Commanders10Patriots17
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Commanders 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Commanders16Patriots17
Commanders17Patriots17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Patriots 33
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Commanders20Patriots17
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Patriots 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 40
4th quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 40
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 20
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 38
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 34
Punt14 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Commanders 36
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Commanders 41
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
