2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · State Farm Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Arizona CardinalsWinner

ATL -2 upsetO 43.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 25–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, ARI +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02ATL 23 — ARI 25ARI ball · 4th & 5ARI 73%

(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02ARI +27% win prob(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q3 · 6:46ATL +22% win prob(6:46) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Landman at ARI 39. 53-N.Landman pushed ob at ARI 14 for 25 yards (1-K.Murray).
Q4 · 0:57ARI +22% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 85-T.McBride to ATL 9 for 33 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q4 · 3:49ARI +19% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London. PENALTY on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:53ARI Field goal
(4:53) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — ARI 3
Q2 · 13:33ATL Touchdown
(13:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 16-S.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — ARI 3
Q2 · 10:37ARI Field goal
(10:37) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — ARI 6
Q2 · 4:12ATL Touchdown
(4:12) 7-B.Robinson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 14 — ARI 6
Q2 · 0:14ARI Touchdown
(:14) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 14 — ARI 12
Q3 · 9:21ARI Field goal
(9:21) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ATL 14 — ARI 15
Q3 · 5:23ATL Field goal
(5:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 17 — ARI 15
Q3 · 0:21ARI Touchdown
(:21) New QB 15-C.Tune. 15-C.Tune up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-75-K.Street, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — ARI 22
Q4 · 2:39ATL Touchdown
(2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 23 — ARI 22
Q4 · 0:02ARI Field goal
(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ATL 23 — ARI 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Cardinals
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	255	354 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	40%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	43%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.19 (edge)
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

19/32, 249 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.5 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Taylor HeinickeQB

8/15, 55 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.5 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

22 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

16 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

8/9 for 131 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Rondale MooreWR

5/8 for 43 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 20	5	1	1:05	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 38	4	6	1:19	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 4	15	83	7:48	Field goal +3
4	ATL	ATL 25	14	70	6:21	Touchdown +7
5	ARI	ARI 25	7	34	2:55	Field goal +3
6	ATL	ATL 25	15	65	6:25	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 25	11	80	3:57	Touchdown +6
8	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
9	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	0:55	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 24	9	58	4:49	Field goal +3
11	ATL	ATL 25	6	13	2:30	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 25	1	0	0:11	Interception
13	ATL	ARI 14	4	-3	1:17	Field goal +3
14	ARI	ARI 25	5	5	2:05	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 16	4	-6	2:05	Punt
16	ARI	ATL 21	4	21	0:49	Touchdown +7
17	ATL	ATL 25	16	64	7:30	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 21	5	0	2:06	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 26	9	42	3:10	Touchdown +6
20	ARI	ARI 25	12	72	2:33	Field goal +3

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 83 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	8/15	55	1	0	3	-7.5
Desmond Ridder	4/6	39	0	0	0	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	22	95	4.3	1	0.8
Taylor Heinicke	4	34	8.5	0	3.5
Tyler Allgeier	9	31	3.4	0	-1.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	13	4.3	0	0.4
Desmond Ridder	3	11	3.7	1	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	3	4	36	0	21%	3.2
Kyle Pitts	3	5	30	0	26%	-2.0
Bijan Robinson	1	2	11	0	11%	0.2
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	7	0	5%	0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	7	0	11%	-0.3
Scott Miller	1	1	2	1	5%	1.9
Jonnu Smith	1	3	1	0	16%	-2.6
Van Jefferson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kaden Elliss	6	5	1.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	9	2	0.0	0	0
Richie Grant	7	2	0.0	0	0
Nate Landman	5	1	1.0	1	1
A.J. Terrell	2	0	0.0	0	2
Keith Smith	1	1	0.0	0	0
Albert Huggins	1	0	0.0	0	0
Timmy Horne	0	1	0.0	0	1
Clark Phillips	1	0	0.0	0	1
Kentavius Street	1	0	0.0	0	1

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	19/32	249	0	1	2	-6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	16	73	4.6	0	2.0
Kyler Murray	6	33	5.5	1	3.5
Tony Jones	1	13	13.0	0	0.0
Keaontay Ingram	2	2	1.0	0	-0.7
Clayton Tune	1	1	1.0	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	8	9	131	29%	2.9
Rondale Moore	5	8	43	26%	-1.6
Michael Wilson	3	6	34	19%	1.0
Marquise Brown	1	4	28	13%	-1.4
Geoff Swaim	2	2	13	6%	0.4
Elijah Higgins	0	1	0	3%	-0.6
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	6	5	0.0	0
Budda Baker	4	5	0.0	0
B.J. Ojulari	4	4	2.0	0
Roy Lopez	3	2	0.0	0
Zaven Collins	3	2	0.0	0
Dennis Gardeck	2	2	1.0	1
Marco Wilson	3	0	0.0	1
Kevin Strong	1	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Ledbetter	2	1	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2
Closing total: 43.5
ATL moneyline: -130
ARI moneyline: +110

Falcons closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 48 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: ATL 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Jonathan Gannon