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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · State Farm Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta23
BY 2final margin
CardinalsArizona25
Atlanta Falcons 23 at Arizona Cardinals 25. Final.
Falcons -2 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 10
Arizona Cardinals 25, Falcons 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 4th and 5, on Matt Prater — 26.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 4th and 5
Matt Prater
Cardinals
(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
O 43.5 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 25–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Cardinals +26.6% win probability on one snap.
26.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nate LandmanFalconsQ3 6:46(6:46) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Landman at ARI 39. 53-N.Landman pushed ob at ARI 14 for 25 yards (1-K.Murray).
22.3pts
Trey McBrideCardinalsQ4 0:57(:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 85-T.McBride to ATL 9 for 33 yards (3-J.Bates).
21.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 10 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 1 giveaway.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Falcons at +0.01 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Falcons167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Swing +26.6 for CardinalsExpected points +0.06 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02ARI +27% win prob(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
3rd · 6:46ATL +22% win prob(6:46) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Landman at ARI 39. 53-N.Landman pushed ob at ARI 14 for 25 yards (1-K.Murray).
4th · 0:57ARI +22% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 85-T.McBride to ATL 9 for 33 yards (3-J.Bates).
4th · 3:49ARI +19% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London. PENALTY on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play.
4th · 8:01ATL +19% win prob(8:01) 9-D.Ridder up the middle to ARI 21 for no gain (93-J.Ledbetter).
4th · 1:50ARI +17% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to ATL 45 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 23-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:53Matt Prater·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+30–3
2nd13:33Scott Miller·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+77–3
2nd10:37Matt Prater·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+37–6
4th2:39Desmond Ridder·9-yd TD run9-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+623–22
4th0:02Matt Prater·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+323–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryCardinals
Falcons3–6Cardinals
255Total yards354
3.9Yards per play5.9
40%Success rate50%
50%Third-down rate30%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
17First downs20
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.00Cardinals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.12Cardinals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.19Cardinals: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 65 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, −22.5 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 7.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −15.3 pts in week 2.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 9.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's blitz rate sent, 43.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 34.4% in week 8.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 9.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 7 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals17.9%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.5 pts, 12.6 points below their season mean of -9.9 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%71 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%71 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%71 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Heavy rotation77%55 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation75%53 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation70%50 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Heavy rotation69%49 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational44%31 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational42%30 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational39%28 snaps
15Van JeffersonWR · Rotational37%26 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Rotational31%22 snaps
9Desmond RidderQB · Rotational31%22 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational30%21 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Situational21%15 snaps
87John FitzPatrickTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Dee AlfordCBJoe GazianoDETravis BellDTDavid OnyemataDTJovaughn GwynGLogan WoodsideQBMack HollinsWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater+26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:02 · Cardinals · 4th & goal at ATL 5 · gained nothing · +0.06 EP · +25.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
606
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1162%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR23-0.1539%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.1239%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0341%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.1447%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7+0.5629%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5240%
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 21
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 44
Falcons0Cardinals3
Field goal18 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Falcons 18
The period ended12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cardinals 15
2nd quarter46 plays
Falcons6Cardinals3
Falcons7Cardinals3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 2
Falcons7Cardinals6
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Falcons 28
Falcons13Cardinals6
Falcons14Cardinals6
Touchdown16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cardinals 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Falcons14Cardinals12
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Falcons 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
Falcons14Cardinals15
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Falcons 30
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Falcons17Cardinals15
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 10
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 17
Falcons17Cardinals21
Falcons17Cardinals22
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Cardinals 21
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 32
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Falcons23Cardinals22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Cardinals 9
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Falcons23Cardinals25
Field goal17 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Falcons 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
