For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Panthers167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Swing +17.0 for BearsExpected points +2.38 for BearsThe model had Panthers 3 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:40CAR +17% win prob(1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
4th · 2:00CHI +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders ran ob at CHI 41 for 13 yards (53-T.Edwards).
1st · 6:05CAR +13% win prob(6:05) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to CAR 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:06CHI +11% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble to CHI 25 for 11 yards (6-K.Gordon). Penalty on CHI-33-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 5:18CHI +11% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 13-T.Scott to CAR 21 for 15 yards (32-D.Bootle).
1st · 1:48CHI +9% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 86-M.Strachan pushed ob at CHI 26 for 45 yards (9-J.Brisker).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D'Onta Foreman's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 6:38 left in the 3rd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st6:05Ihmir Smith-Marsette·79-yd return TD79-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–0
1st2:34Cairo Santos·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+37–3
2nd13:36Eddy Pineiro·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+310–3
2nd3:10Cairo Santos·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+310–6
2nd0:03Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+310–9
3rd6:38D'Onta Foreman·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–16
4th11:10Eddy Pineiro·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+313–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryBears
Panthers0–8Bears
213Total yards300
3.7Yards per play4.3
26%Success rate43%
20%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays3
10First downs20
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Panthers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Panthers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.42Panthers: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Bears’s 69 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Bears 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's sack or hit rate, 20.5%, is past their previous high of 18.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 9.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears20.5%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.4 pts, 13.9 points above their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Eddy Pineiro−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 1:40 · Panthers · 4th & 10 at CHI 41 · gained nothing · -2.38 EP · −22.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 70 yards from the CHI 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
35%
Yards
508
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1472%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0353%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28-0.0746%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 43
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Bears 48
Panthers6Bears0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 1 to the Bears 22
Panthers7Bears0
Panthers7Bears3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Panthers 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Bears 23
2nd quarter50 plays
Panthers10Bears3
Field goal4 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Panthers 47
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Panthers10Bears6
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Panthers 18
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 48
Panthers10Bears9
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Panthers 21
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 29
Punt4 plays
Panthers10Bears15
Panthers10Bears16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 4
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Bears 45
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 25
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Panthers13Bears16
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Bears 20
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Panthers 42
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
No good16 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Bears 41
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Panthers 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
