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2023 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 9, 2023 · Soldier Field

Carolina Panthers

13

Chicago BearsWinner

16

CHI -3 pushU 38 ✓

Chicago Bears 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:40, CAR +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑CAR ↓
Q4 · 1:40CAR 13 — CHI 16CAR ball · 4th & 10CHI 76%

(1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:40CAR +17% win prob(1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
  2. Q4 · 2:00CHI +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders ran ob at CHI 41 for 13 yards (53-T.Edwards).
  3. Q1 · 6:05CAR +13% win prob(6:05) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to CAR 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 13:06CHI +11% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble to CHI 25 for 11 yards (6-K.Gordon). Penalty on CHI-33-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:05CAR Touchdown

    (6:05) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to CAR 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 0
  2. Q1 · 2:34CHI Field goal

    (2:34) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 3
  3. Q2 · 13:36CAR Field goal

    (13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — CHI 3
  4. Q2 · 3:10CHI Field goal

    (3:10) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — CHI 6
  5. Q2 · 0:03CHI Field goal

    (:03) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — CHI 9
  6. Q3 · 6:38CHI Touchdown

    (6:38) (Shotgun) 21-D.Foreman right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — CHI 16
  7. Q4 · 11:10CAR Field goal

    (11:10) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — CHI 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersBears
Offensive plays5769
Total yards213300 (edge)
Yards per play3.74.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.14-0.06 (edge)
Success rate26%43% (edge)
Dropback rate77%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06-0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.42-0.06 (edge)
Third downs3/156/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1020 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers00

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

21/38, 185 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Tyson BagentQB

20/33, 162 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Onta ForemanRB

21 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

9 att, 23 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

5/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

5/7 for 45 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 256181:38Punt
2CARCAR 2010274:15Punt
3CHICHI 17213:21Defensive touchdown
4CHICHI 259443:17Field goal +3
5CARCAR 259603:56Field goal +3
6CHICHI 259324:15Punt
7CARCAR 94-60:59Punt
8CHICHI 4711355:13Field goal +3
9CARCAR 277161:54Punt
10CHICHI 99551:12Field goal +3
11CARCAR 25511:03Punt
12CHICHI 27421:30Punt
13CARCAR 94-51:58Punt
14CHICAR 3810383:56Touchdown +7
15CARCAR 258352:07Punt
16CHICHI 116133:38Punt
17CARCHI 408354:42Field goal +3
18CHICHI 259313:56Punt
19CARCAR 915505:35Missed field goal
20CHICHI 494111:35End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 60 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young21/38185003-8.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard9232.60-3.0
Bryce Young3186.005.8
Raheem Blackshear273.50-0.2
Miles Sanders2-5-2.50-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Strachan124506%2.0
Adam Thielen61042029%-2.0
Jonathan Mingo3720021%-3.2
Chuba Hubbard221606%-0.9
Tommy Tremble331609%2.7
Miles Sanders221506%2.2
Hayden Hurst2414012%-1.2
Terrace Marshall131109%-0.7
Raheem Blackshear11603%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Frankie Luvu550.000
Derrick Brown710.000
Donte Jackson520.002
Deion Jones410.001
Amare Barno400.000
Vonn Bell220.000
Xavier Woods310.000
Dicaprio Bootle300.001
Eku Leota210.000
Nick Thurman110.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyson Bagent20/33162000-2.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Onta Foreman21803.81-1.5
Roschon Johnson5183.60-0.9
Tyler Scott11616.000.9
Tyson Bagent6122.00-1.4
Darrynton Evans252.50-0.5
D.J. Moore111.00-0.6
Cole Kmet111.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore5958028%-1.0
Cole Kmet5745022%0.7
Tyler Scott111503%3.1
Roschon Johnson4614019%-2.2
Darnell Mooney2414013%0.0
D'Onta Foreman221206%0.2
Equanimeous St. Brown11403%-0.1
Darrynton Evans02006%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards570.000
Kyler Gordon710.001
Jaquan Brisker340.001
Jack Sanborn140.001
Tyrique Stevenson120.001
Yannick Ngakoue201.000
Eddie Jackson200.000
Jaylon Johnson100.000
Josh Blackwell100.000
Noah Sewell100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
38
CAR moneyline
+150
CHI moneyline
-180

Bears closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 38; the game landed 29 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
51°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
CAR 4 days · CHI 4 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Matt Eberflus