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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland33
BY 2final margin
RavensBaltimore31
Cleveland Browns 33 at Baltimore Ravens 31. Final.
Ravens -6 upsetO 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 10
Cleveland Browns 33, Ravens 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 5, on Dustin Hopkins — 37.9 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 5
Dustin Hopkins
Browns
(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Ravens closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Browns +37.9% win probability on one snap.
37.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle HamiltonRavensQ1 14:26(14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at CLE 18. 14-K.Hamilton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
Greg NewsomeBrownsQ4 8:24(8:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 0-G.Newsome (54-O.Okoronkwo) at BAL 34. 0-G.Newsome for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Ravens at 2 of 8 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Ravens at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Browns173 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Swing −37.9 for RavensExpected points −0.45 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 186
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03BAL +38% win prob(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 8:24CLE +27% win prob(8:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 0-G.Newsome (54-O.Okoronkwo) at BAL 34. 0-G.Newsome for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:26CLE +13% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at CLE 18. 14-K.Hamilton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:39BAL +12% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to BAL 39 for 16 yards (6-P.Queen). CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
4th · 15:00BAL +9% win prob(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CLE 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-13-D.Duvernay at CLE 12.
4th · 1:13BAL +9% win prob(1:13) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right end to BAL 26 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 0-R.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 40-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:24Greg Newsome·34-yd defence TD34-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+630–31
4th0:03Dustin Hopkins·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+333–31
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryRavens
Browns7–2Ravens
376Total yards306
5.0Yards per play6.1
45%Success rate42%
53%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays4
23First downs12
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Browns: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.17Ravens: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.22Ravens: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Browns: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.09Ravens: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 75 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 50 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Ravens 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 9 against 40.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 31.3% in week 9 against 13.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.3% in week 9 against 57.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Ravens17.4%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteCLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.9%, 12.0 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.2 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Dustin Hopkins+38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 0:03 · Browns · 4th & 5 at BAL 22 · gained nothing · +0.45 EP · +37.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 79 yards from the BAL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0754%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.2341%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.2365%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.1571%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1380%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Browns0Ravens6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Browns0Ravens7
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 38
Browns0Ravens13
Browns0Ravens14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Browns 39
Browns3Ravens14
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Ravens 18
Browns3Ravens17
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 19
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 43
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Browns6Ravens17
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Ravens 10
No good13 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Browns 25
Browns9Ravens17
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Ravens 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 34
The period ended11 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Ravens 42
3rd quarter36 plays
Browns9Ravens23
Browns9Ravens24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Browns 40
Browns15Ravens24
Browns17Ravens24
Touchdown22 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 37
4th quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
Browns17Ravens30
Browns17Ravens31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 1
Browns23Ravens31
Browns24Ravens31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Browns30Ravens31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 27
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 41
Browns33Ravens31
Field goal17 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Ravens 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
