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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

33

Baltimore Ravens

31

BAL -6 upsetO 38.5 ✓

Cleveland Browns 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, BAL +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑CLE ↓
Q4 · 0:03CLE 33 — BAL 31CLE ball · 4th & 5CLE 62%

(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03BAL +38% win prob(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
  2. Q4 · 8:24CLE +27% win prob(8:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 0-G.Newsome (54-O.Okoronkwo) at BAL 34. 0-G.Newsome for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 14:26CLE +13% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at CLE 18. 14-K.Hamilton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 1:39BAL +12% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to BAL 39 for 16 yards (6-P.Queen). CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 14:26BAL Touchdown

    (14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at CLE 18. 14-K.Hamilton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 0 — BAL 7
  2. Q1 · 10:22BAL Touchdown

    (10:22) 34-K.Mitchell left tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 0 — BAL 14
  3. Q1 · 7:31CLE Field goal

    (7:31) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 3 — BAL 14
  4. Q1 · 3:33BAL Field goal

    (3:33) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: CLE 3 — BAL 17
  5. Q2 · 7:33CLE Field goal

    (7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 6 — BAL 17
  6. Q2 · 1:05CLE Field goal

    (1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 9 — BAL 17
  7. Q3 · 12:37BAL Touchdown

    (12:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 3-O.Beckham for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 9 — BAL 24
  8. Q3 · 2:25CLE Touchdown

    (2:25) 69-L.Watson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CLE 17 — BAL 24
  9. Q4 · 11:37BAL Touchdown

    (11:37) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 17 — BAL 31
  10. Q4 · 9:04CLE Touchdown

    (9:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 24 — BAL 31
  11. Q4 · 8:24CLE Touchdown

    (8:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 0-G.Newsome (54-O.Okoronkwo) at BAL 34. 0-G.Newsome for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CLE 30 — BAL 31
  12. Q4 · 0:03CLE Field goal

    (:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 33 — BAL 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsRavens
Offensive plays7550
Total yards376 (edge)306
Yards per play5.06.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)-0.17
Success rate45% (edge)42%
Dropback rate61%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.09
Third downs8/15 (edge)2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)12
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13/23, 223 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

20/34, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

17 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

8 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

6/9 for 98 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/6 for 73 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 25340:40Defensive touchdown
2CLECLE 256121:29Punt
3BALBAL 216742:38Touchdown +7
4CLECLE 3311342:46Field goal +3
5BALBAL 259513:58Field goal +3
6CLECLE 25552:28Punt
7BALBAL 40421:15Punt
8CLECLE 2012757:16Field goal +3
9BALBAL 2610325:16Missed field goal
10CLEBAL 386331:12Field goal +3
11BALBAL 25390:19Interception
12CLECLE 477110:43Turnover on downs
13BALBAL 228782:31Touchdown +7
14CLECLE 25198210:09Touchdown +8
15BALBAL 256202:29Punt
16BALCLE 128173:17Touchdown +7
17CLECLE 258562:37Touchdown +7
18BALBAL 25320:41Defensive touchdown
19BALBAL 258213:21Punt
20CLECLE 2012644:55Field goal +3

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 82 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Deshaun Watson20/34213114-0.2
P.J. Walker0/10000-0.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jerome Ford171076.303.4
Deshaun Watson8374.602.9
Kareem Hunt10323.21-1.6
Harrison Bryant122.002.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amari Cooper6998028%6.7
David Njoku6958028%-4.4
Elijah Moore5744122%4.2
Jordan Akins11803%0.5
Harrison Bryant11303%-0.7
Jerome Ford11203%0.5
James Proche01003%1.0
Cedric Tillman03009%-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Martin Emerson620.000
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah330.501
Grant Delpit410.001
Za'Darius Smith220.500
Juan Thornhill210.000
Myles Garrett121.500
Mike Ford200.012
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo110.001
Greg Newsome110.511
Anthony Walker110.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson13/23223123-5.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson8415.10-1.2
Keaton Mitchell33411.311.7
Gus Edwards11242.21-2.2
Justice Hill273.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers5673026%3.8
Mark Andrews2444017%1.4
Odell Beckham124019%4.2
Keaton Mitchell123209%0.6
Rashod Bateman2425017%-0.8
Isaiah Likely11504%-0.3
Gus Edwards11404%-0.2
Nelson Agholor02009%-1.9
Patrick Ricard01004%-7.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith1170.000
Patrick Queen630.000
Kyle Hamilton700.012
Jadeveon Clowney242.000
Geno Stone130.001
Michael Pierce310.000
Nnamdi Madubuike121.000
Odafe Oweh201.000
Brent Urban110.000
Marlon Humphrey200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -6
Closing total
38.5
CLE moneyline
+210
BAL moneyline
-258

Ravens closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 64 — over by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
49°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
CLE 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.