2023 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 13, 2023 · New Era Field

Denver BroncosWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -7.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, BUF +40% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04DEN 24 — BUF 22DEN ball · 4th & 11DEN 60%

(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04BUF +40% win prob(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 · 0:35BUF +29% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 10-J.Jeudy [57-A.Epenesa]. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at BUF 45 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:40DEN +21% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at BUF 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 57-A.Epenesa and 20-T.Rapp).
Q3 · 1:19DEN +16% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 48, touched at BUF 48, RECOVERED by DEN-49-A.Singleton at BUF 48. 49-A.Singleton to BUF 48 for no gain (14-S.Diggs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:42DEN Field goal
(12:42) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — BUF 0
Q2 · 7:23DEN Touchdown
(7:23) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. QB pressure: S.Lawson. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught 8 yds. into end zone, along sideline.
Score after this play: DEN 9 — BUF 0
Q2 · 3:41BUF Touchdown
(3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-N.Bonitto]. Caught 1 yd. into end zone. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DEN 9 — BUF 8
Q2 · 0:49DEN Field goal
(:49) 16-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 12 — BUF 8
Q2 · 0:04DEN Field goal
(:04) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 15 — BUF 8
Q3 · 6:45BUF Touchdown
(6:45) (No Huddle) 28-L.Murray left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 15 — BUF 15
Q4 · 5:10DEN Touchdown
(5:10) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 33-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-T.Dodson].
Score after this play: DEN 21 — BUF 15
Q4 · 2:00BUF Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 21 — BUF 22
Q4 · 0:04DEN Field goal
(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 24 — BUF 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Bills
Offensive plays	69	53
Total yards	306	371 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	39%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	8/18 (edge)	3/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Bills outgained Broncos 371–306 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

24/29, 193 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/26, 177 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-4.0 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

12 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

21 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

2/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

8/11 for 53 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	2	3	0:08	Fumble
2	DEN	BUF 28	4	11	2:13	Field goal +3
3	BUF	BUF 25	9	62	4:17	Interception
4	DEN	DEN 12	8	35	3:58	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 20	6	13	1:54	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 21	9	38	4:43	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 20	4	5	1:37	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 48	8	37	3:53	Touchdown +6
9	BUF	BUF 19	10	83	3:41	Touchdown +8
10	DEN	DEN 25	9	55	2:51	Field goal +3
11	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
12	DEN	BUF 31	4	9	0:37	Field goal +3
13	DEN	DEN 25	5	13	2:51	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 39	4	9	0:47	Turnover on downs
15	DEN	BUF 47	3	2	1:31	Fumble
16	BUF	BUF 46	8	54	3:09	Touchdown +7
17	DEN	DEN 39	8	8	4:12	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 11	3	41	1:17	Fumble
19	DEN	BUF 48	4	4	1:21	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 11	7	26	2:30	Punt
21	DEN	DEN 46	13	64	7:16	Touchdown +6
22	BUF	BUF 25	8	75	3:11	Touchdown +7
23	DEN	DEN 25	11	30	1:51	Field goal +3

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 83 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	24/29	193	2	0	4	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	21	79	3.8	-1.6
Russell Wilson	9	30	3.3	1.3
Samaje Perine	1	8	8.0	-0.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	6	8	1.3	-2.8
Marvin Mims	1	-3	-3.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	8	11	53	1	38%	-1.5
Samaje Perine	3	3	35	0	10%	3.7
Jerry Jeudy	3	3	35	0	10%	4.1
Javonte Williams	4	4	31	1	14%	3.6
Adam Trautman	2	2	15	0	7%	-0.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	14	0	3%	0.9
Chris Manhertz	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	2	4	0	7%	-0.4
Lucas Krull	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2
Marvin Mims	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	2	8	0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	3	1	2
Delarrin Turner-Yell	2	3	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	4	1	0	0
Justin Simmons	2	3	1	1
Josey Jewell	1	3	0	0
D.J. Jones	2	2	0	0
P.J. Locke	1	1	0	0
Patrick Surtain	1	1	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	2	0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/26	177	1	2	0	-4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	12	109	9.1	0	4.0
Latavius Murray	9	68	7.6	1	5.7
Josh Allen	4	13	3.3	1	-3.8
Ty Johnson	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	2	6	56	0	24%	1.0
Dalton Kincaid	5	6	51	1	24%	1.6
Stefon Diggs	3	5	34	0	20%	0.3
Khalil Shakir	1	2	24	0	8%	-1.7
James Cook	2	2	11	0	8%	-5.1
Latavius Murray	2	3	1	0	12%	-2.0
Deonte Harty	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Terrel Bernard	8	5	1.0
Jordan Poyer	5	2	0.0
Rasul Douglas	5	1	0.0
Taron Johnson	4	2	0.0
Taylor Rapp	3	3	0.5
Gregory Rousseau	4	2	1.0
Tyrel Dodson	2	2	0.0
Ed Oliver	2	1	0.0
Dane Jackson	2	1	0.0
A.J. Epenesa	1	2	1.5

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7.5
Closing total: 47.5
DEN moneyline: +310
BUF moneyline: -395

Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 46 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DEN 15 days · BUF 8 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Sean McDermott