For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 24, Bills 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 4th and 11, on Wil Lutz — 39.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 4th and 11
Wil Lutz
Broncos
(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Broncos +39.7% win probability on one snap.
39.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonBillsQ4 0:40(:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at BUF 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 57-A.Epenesa and 20-T.Rapp).
20.8pts
Russell WilsonBroncosQ4 0:35(:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 10-J.Jeudy [57-A.Epenesa]. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at BUF 45 - No Play.
28.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Broncos164 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Swing −39.7 for BillsExpected points −0.29 for BillsThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04BUF +40% win prob(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4th · 0:35BUF +29% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 10-J.Jeudy [57-A.Epenesa]. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at BUF 45 - No Play.
4th · 0:40DEN +21% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at BUF 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 57-A.Epenesa and 20-T.Rapp).
3rd · 1:19DEN +16% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 48, touched at BUF 48, RECOVERED by DEN-49-A.Singleton at BUF 48. 49-A.Singleton to BUF 48 for no gain (14-S.Diggs).
4th · 4:37BUF +14% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 41 for 9 yards (31-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (31-J.Simmons), and recovers at BUF 45. 4-J.Cook to DEN 26 for 29 yards (29-J.McMillian). Rush credited for 42 yds.
4th · 11:42BUF +14% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy to BUF 35 for 19 yards (20-T.Rapp).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 36-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:42Wil Lutz·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
2nd7:23Courtland Sutton·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, hit left upright+69–0
4th0:04Wil Lutz·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+324–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryBills
Broncos2–6Bills
306Total yards371
4.4Yards per play7.0
39%Success rate51%
44%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays9
18First downs19
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers4
The read
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Broncos: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.25Bills: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.15Bills: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 69 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bills’s 53 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Bills 3.
NoteBills outgained Broncos 371-306 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, −13.1 pts, is past their previous low of −7.0 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, −9.0 pts, is past their previous low of −3.3 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 9.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 83.7% in week 9 against 46.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bills18.9%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.1 pts, 9.4 points below their season mean of -3.7 pts and 2.4 times their own 4.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%75 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%75 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%75 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Full-time96%72 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time87%65 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Heavy rotation69%52 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation65%49 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation64%48 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation52%39 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational40%30 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational33%25 snaps
85Lucas KrullTE · Rotational27%20 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational19%14 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational16%12 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Situational15%11 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational8%6 snaps
87David SillsWR · Situational5%4 snaps
60Luke WattenbergC · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex ForsythCElijah GarciaDEBen NiemannILBKeondre CoburnNTThomas IncoomOLBJ.L. SkinnerSSNate AdkinsTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jarrett StidhamQBCameron FlemingT
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%54 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%54 snaps
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%54 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%54 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%54 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time98%53 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time98%53 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation52%28 snaps
4James CookRB · Rotational46%25 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational26%14 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational17%9 snaps
11Deonte HartyWR · Situational7%4 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational2%1 snap
26Ty JohnsonRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Christian BenfordCBPoona FordDEMicah HydeFSGermain IfediGBaylon SpectorOLBAlec AndersonT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Wil Lutz+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 0:04 · Broncos · 4th & 11 at BUF 18 · gained nothing · +0.29 EP · +34.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
37%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0550%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0565%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0238%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1925%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0433%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Broncos3Bills0
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bills 22
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Broncos 28
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 12 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 38
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Bills 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 26
Broncos9Bills0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Bills 7
Broncos9Bills6
Broncos9Bills8
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Broncos 22
Broncos12Bills8
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bills 30
Intercepted2 plays
Broncos15Bills8
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 22
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Bills 43
Broncos15Bills14
Broncos15Bills15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Broncos 3
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Bills 44
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Broncos 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Bills 46
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Broncos21Bills15
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Bills 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Broncos21Bills21
Broncos21Bills22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Broncos 6
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Broncos24Bills22
Field goal18 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bills 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -7.5
Closing total
47.5
Broncos moneyline
+310
Bills moneyline
-395
Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 46 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 48°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the west; 0.01 in of precipitation; clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Broncos 15 days · Bills 8 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Sean McDermott
4th · 1:09BUF +13% win prob(1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 25-S.Perine to BUF 45 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams).
2nd · 0:45DEN +13% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 11-D.Harty INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Moreau at BUF 40. 23-F.Moreau pushed ob at BUF 31 for 9 yards (4-J.Cook).
