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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

41

Los Angeles Chargers

38

DET -2.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 41–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:42, LAC +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑DET ↓
Q4 · 3:42DET 38 — LAC 37LAC ball · 4th & 1DET 87%

(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:42LAC +26% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:47LAC +18% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta to LAC 20 for 6 yards (3-D.James, 33-D.Leonard).
  3. Q4 · 7:35LAC +15% win prob(7:35) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 89-B.Wright for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 11:33LAC +15% win prob(11:33) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:13DET Field goal

    (10:13) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — LAC 0
  2. Q1 · 6:58LAC Field goal

    (6:58) 11-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — LAC 3
  3. Q1 · 4:22DET Touchdown

    (4:22) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — LAC 3
  4. Q2 · 7:34DET Touchdown

    (7:34) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 17 — LAC 3
  5. Q2 · 3:27LAC Touchdown

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 17 — LAC 10
  6. Q2 · 3:21DET Touchdown

    (3:21) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — LAC 10
  7. Q2 · 0:29LAC Touchdown

    (:29) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — LAC 17
  8. Q3 · 8:03LAC Touchdown

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — LAC 24
  9. Q3 · 4:36DET Touchdown

    (4:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 31 — LAC 24
  10. Q4 · 11:33LAC Touchdown

    (11:33) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 31 — LAC 31
  11. Q4 · 7:35DET Touchdown

    (7:35) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 89-B.Wright for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 38 — LAC 31
  12. Q4 · 3:42LAC Touchdown

    (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 38 — LAC 38
  13. Q4 · 0:02DET Field goal

    (:02) 36-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 41 — LAC 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsChargers
Offensive plays6168
Total yards535 (edge)421
Yards per play8.8 (edge)6.2
Expected points added / play0.45 (edge)0.20
Success rate56% (edge)47%
Dropback rate54%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.45 (edge)0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)-0.10
Third downs4/127/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps2121
Sacks taken00
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/33, 333 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.8 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

27/40, 323 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

14.6 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

12 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

14 att, 77 yds, 2 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

11/14 for 175 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 17.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/9 for 156 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 13.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 25541:28Punt
2DETDET 257763:23Field goal +3
3LACLAC 259453:15Field goal +3
4DETDET 257592:36Touchdown +7
5LACLAC 25320:33Interception
6DETLAC 3312325:36Turnover on downs
7LACLAC 2490:52Punt
8DETDET 4010604:47Touchdown +7
9LACLAC 2512754:09Touchdown +7
10DETDET 253750:14Touchdown +7
11LACLAC 2512752:44Touchdown +7
12DETDET 25250:23End of half
13DETDET 2510232:33Punt
14LACLAC 811774:28Touchdown +7
15DETDET 259753:28Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 2518668:01Touchdown +7
17DETDET 259754:00Touchdown +7
18LACLAC 329683:56Touchdown +7
19DETDET 2510553:34Field goal +3

13 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/3333320014.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery121169.716.4
Jahmyr Gibbs14775.524.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown294.501.8
Jared Goff3-2-0.70-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown89156128%13.0
Kalif Raymond2446013%-0.0
Sam LaPorta4540016%3.4
Jahmyr Gibbs3535016%-1.1
Brock Wright232319%1.5
Jameson Williams221806%0.3
Josh Reynolds2415013%2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone350.001
Tracy Walker III510.000
Alim McNeill240.000
Kerby Joseph420.011
Cameron Sutton500.001
Derrick Barnes220.000
Jack Campbell220.000
Benito Jones120.000
Malcolm Rodriguez120.000
Brian Branch210.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert27/4032341014.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler19673.51-0.9
Joshua Kelley5163.20-1.7
Justin Herbert4153.801.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen1114175235%17.3
Austin Ekeler4748018%-0.7
Jalen Guyton4641115%1.5
Quentin Johnston4434110%4.9
Donald Parham221805%0.9
Derius Davis22705%-0.5
Gerald Everett02005%-5.4
Stone Smartt03008%-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James750.000
Alohi Gilman610.001
Eric Kendricks410.000
Kenneth Murray410.000
Deane Leonard230.001
Ja'Sir Taylor310.000
Nicholas Williams210.000
Khalil Mack200.000
Josh Harris100.000
Joey Bosa100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -2.5
Closing total
48.5
DET moneyline
-142
LAC moneyline
+120

Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 79 — over by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
DET 13 days · LAC 6 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Brandon Staley