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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Green Bay Packers

19

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

23

PIT -3 ✓O 38.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, GB +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 0:03GB 19 — PIT 23GB ball · 2nd & 10PIT 61%

(:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee at PIT 2. 23-D.Kazee ran ob at PIT 32 for 30 yards (50-Z.Tom). PENALTY on GB-50-Z.Tom, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforce

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03GB +39% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee at PIT 2. 23-D.Kazee ran ob at PIT 32 for 30 yards (50-Z.Tom). PENALTY on GB-50-Z.Tom, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 32.
  2. Q4 · 3:32GB +27% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Neal (20-P.Peterson) at PIT -8. 31-K.Neal to PIT 24 for 32 yards (87-R.Doubs). PIT-31-K.Neal was injured during the play.
  3. Q4 · 4:22PIT +23% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 13-D.Wicks to PIT 15 for 32 yards (31-K.Neal).
  4. Q4 · 0:59PIT +21% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at PIT 35 for 46 yards (23-D.Kazee) [95-K.Benton].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:05PIT Touchdown

    (10:05) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 0 — PIT 7
  2. Q1 · 4:47GB Touchdown

    (4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — PIT 7
  3. Q2 · 14:17PIT Touchdown

    (14:17) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — PIT 14
  4. Q2 · 8:12PIT Field goal

    (8:12) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — PIT 17
  5. Q2 · 4:21GB Touchdown

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 13 — PIT 17
  6. Q3 · 9:11GB Field goal

    (9:11) 17-A.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 16 — PIT 17
  7. Q3 · 3:07GB Field goal

    (3:07) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 19 — PIT 17
  8. Q3 · 1:09PIT Field goal

    (1:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: GB 19 — PIT 20
  9. Q4 · 5:17PIT Field goal

    (5:17) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: GB 19 — PIT 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersSteelers
Offensive plays6460
Total yards399 (edge)324
Yards per play6.2 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.06 (edge)0.04
Success rate38%48% (edge)
Dropback rate66%43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.060.21 (edge)
Third downs8/16 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)89 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1618 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers20 (edge)

Packers outgained Steelers 399–324 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

21/40, 289 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

5.2 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

14/23, 126 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

15 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

16 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Jayden ReedWR

5/5 for 84 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Luke MusgraveTE

2/4 for 64 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 2511584:59Touchdown +7
2GBGB 3112695:19Touchdown +7
3PITPIT 4013555:30Touchdown +7
4GBGB 23521:06Punt
5PITPIT 468254:58Field goal +3
6GBGB 139803:54Touchdown +6
7PITPIT 15511:02Punt
8GBGB 46460:37Punt
9PITPIT 96371:15Punt
10GBGB 15241:20End of half
11GBPIT 4412315:52Field goal +3
12PITPIT 225101:58Punt
13GBGB 229684:06Field goal +3
14PITPIT 346351:59Field goal +3
15GBGB 34501:59Punt
16PITPIT 256272:21Punt
17GBGB 97132:21Punt
18PITPIT 348494:10Field goal +3
19GBGB 257611:54Interception
20PITPIT 247272:21Punt
21GBGB 197650:59Interception

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love21/402892215.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon9707.802.0
Aaron Jones13352.70-3.3
Jordan Love2115.500.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jayden Reed5584114%7.8
Luke Musgrave2464011%3.5
Dontayvion Wicks3451011%3.0
Romeo Doubs3531114%1.8
Christian Watson2723019%-7.3
Aaron Jones4619016%1.8
A.J. Dillon131108%-1.1
Tucker Kraft13608%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Rudy Ford630.000
Isaiah McDuffie530.000
Jonathan Owens610.001
Tedarrell Slaton240.000
Corey Ballentine230.002
Keisean Nixon220.001
Preston Smith211.000
Lukas Van Ness210.000
De'Vondre Campbell120.001
Rashan Gary120.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kenny Pickett14/23126001-5.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren151016.715.2
Najee Harris16825.112.9
Kenny Pickett4164.00-0.0
Calvin Austin166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens3445018%1.2
Connor Heyward3432018%-0.0
Diontae Johnson1417018%-1.7
Najee Harris3414018%-0.6
Jaylen Warren249018%-1.6
Darnell Washington11605%0.3
Calvin Austin11305%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Keanu Neal440.011
Elandon Roberts520.001
T.J. Watt511.000
Keeanu Benton230.001
Joey Porter310.000
James Pierre300.000
Elijah Riley210.000
Mark Robinson210.000
Alex Highsmith020.001
Patrick Peterson200.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -3
Closing total
38.5
GB moneyline
+140
PIT moneyline
-166

Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 42 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
50°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
GB 7 days · PIT 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike Tomlin