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Houston Texans 30 at Cincinnati Bengals 27. Final.
Bengals -5.5 upsetO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 10
Houston Texans 30, Bengals 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:04, 2nd and 10, on Tyler Boyd — 31.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:04 · 2nd and 10
Tyler Boyd
Bengals
(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
Bengals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, Bengals +31.6% win probability on one snap.
31.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsQ3 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.8pts
Cam Taylor-BrittBengalsQ4 3:41(3:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 3-N.Dell INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at HOU 34. 29-C.Taylor-Britt to HOU 4 for 30 yards (3-N.Dell).
17.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Bengals at 8 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Texans176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
Swing +31.6 for BengalsExpected points +4.18 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:04CIN +32% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
3rd · 0:21CIN +18% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:41HOU +17% win prob(3:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 3-N.Dell INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at HOU 34. 29-C.Taylor-Britt to HOU 4 for 30 yards (3-N.Dell).
4th · 0:05CIN +15% win prob(:05) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
4th · 4:00HOU +14% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 0-S.Griffin at HOU -2. Touchback.
4th · 0:42CIN +13% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz to CIN 46 for 25 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Ammendola's 38-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:48Trenton Irwin·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+70–7
4th1:37Evan McPherson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+327–27
4th0:05Matt Ammendola·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+330–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryBengals
Texans7–2Bengals
544Total yards381
7.4Yards per play6.5
45%Success rate37%
31%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
15Explosive plays8
26First downs16
1Sacks taken4
3Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.00Bengals: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Texans: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.06Bengals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Texans: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.22Bengals: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 74 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Bengals’s 59 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Bengals 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 77.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.2% in week 6.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bengals9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.3%, 14.2 points above their season mean of 63.1% and 1.5 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%75 snaps
77George FantT · Every snap100%75 snaps
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%75 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
63Michael DeiterC · Every snap100%75 snaps
3Nathaniel DellWR · Full-time96%72 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time88%66 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Full-time81%61 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Heavy rotation75%56 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation60%45 snaps
81Eric SaubertTE · Rotational32%24 snaps
8John MetchieWR · Rotational25%19 snaps
22Mike BooneRB · Situational19%14 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Situational13%10 snaps
40Dalton KeeneTE · Situational11%8 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew BeckFBJimmie WardFSHenry To'oTo'oILBJake HansenOLBDameon PierceRBBrevin JordanTENico CollinsWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+32% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
Q4 2:04 · Bengals · 2nd & 10 at CIN 29 · gained 64 · +4.18 EP · +32.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 78 yards from the CIN 8 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
924
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0974%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.2963%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2638%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Texans0Bengals6
Texans0Bengals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Texans 32
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 45
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 38
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Bengals 9
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 18
Texans6Bengals7
Texans7Bengals7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Bengals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Bengals 31
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Texans10Bengals7
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Bengals 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Texans13Bengals7
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 26
Texans19Bengals7
Texans20Bengals7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Bengals 6
Texans20Bengals10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Texans 24
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Texans20Bengals16
Texans20Bengals17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 38
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter60 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Texans26Bengals17
Texans27Bengals17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Bengals 8
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Texans 35
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Bengals 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Texans 14
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 28
Texans27Bengals23
Texans27Bengals24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Texans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Texans27Bengals27
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Texans 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Texans30Bengals27
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bengals 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -5.5
Closing total
46
Texans moneyline
+205
Bengals moneyline
-250
Bengals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Texans 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Zac Taylor
4th · 9:44
HOU +12% win prob
(9:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Houston-Carson [98-S.Rankins] at HOU 11. 30-D.Houston-Carson to HOU 24 for 13 yards (67-C.Volson).
2nd · 1:00CIN +12% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to CIN 29 for 29 yards (27-J.Battle).
