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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Paycor Stadium
30
27
Houston Texans 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, CIN +32% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
How the points landed
(9:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 16-T.Irwin for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — CIN 7(10:38) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-N.Dell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CIN 7(:15) 16-M.Ammendola 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 10 — CIN 7(9:30) 16-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — CIN 7(7:12) 26-D.Singletary right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CIN 7(3:05) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CIN 10(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CIN 17(12:52) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 27 — CIN 17(3:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 27 — CIN 24(1:37) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: HOU 27 — CIN 27(:05) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 30 — CIN 27Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Texans | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 74 | 59 |
| Total yards | 544 (edge) | 381 |
| Yards per play | 7.4 (edge) | 6.5 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.10 (edge) | 0.00 |
| Success rate | 45% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.17 (edge) | 0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.22 |
| Third downs | 4/13 | 6/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 15 (edge) | 8 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 (edge) |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
23/39, 356 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.1 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
27/40, 347 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
3.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | CIN 25 | 12 | 60 | 5:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 20 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 3 | CIN | CIN 12 | 8 | 26 | 4:14 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 18 | 9 | 78 | 3:42 | Fumble | |
| 5 | CIN | CIN 11 | 4 | 7 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 34 | 8 | 60 | 3:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | CIN | CIN 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 20 | 7 | 54 | 3:28 | Fumble | |
| 9 | CIN | CIN 28 | 4 | 9 | 2:51 | Punt | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 12 | 9 | 61 | 2:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | CIN | CIN 9 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 25 | 12 | 72 | 5:33 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | CIN | CIN 25 | 5 | -11 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 41 | 3 | 17 | 0:51 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | CIN | CIN 25 | 8 | 53 | 4:08 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 17 | CIN | CIN 27 | 4 | 65 | 1:23 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:23 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | CIN | CIN 24 | 8 | 41 | 3:12 | Interception | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 24 | 7 | 30 | 3:45 | Punt | |
| 21 | CIN | CIN 8 | 7 | 64 | 1:57 | Interception | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 20 | 3 | 8 | 0:20 | Interception | |
| 23 | CIN | HOU 4 | 3 | 1 | 0:15 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 25 | CIN | CIN 29 | 6 | 58 | 0:37 | Field goal +3 | |
| 26 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 55 | 1:33 | Field goal +3 |
11 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a fumble.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/39 | 356 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 30 | 150 | 5.0 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 | -2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 7 | 8 | 172 | 0 | 21% | 11.8 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 15% | 3.1 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 14 | 56 | 1 | 36% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavierre Thomas | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake Cashman | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 27/40 | 347 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| -6.6 |
| John Metchie | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | 0.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | 0.6 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8% | -0.9 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 5 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.8 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 124 | 1 | 15% | 9.3 |
| Tyler Boyd | 8 | 12 | 117 | 0 | 31% | 0.9 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 10% | 5.6 |
| Tanner Hudson | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 18% | 3.5 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | -4.2 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.5 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 8% | -2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dax Hill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cam Sample | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Scott | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
