2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -5.5 upsetO 46 ✓Bengals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, CIN +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:04HOU 27 — CIN 24CIN ball · 2nd & 10HOU 72%

(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:04CIN +32% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
Q3 · 0:21CIN +18% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:41HOU +17% win prob(3:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 3-N.Dell INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at HOU 34. 29-C.Taylor-Britt to HOU 4 for 30 yards (3-N.Dell).
Q4 · 0:05CIN +15% win prob(:05) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:48CIN Touchdown
(9:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 16-T.Irwin for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — CIN 7
Q2 · 10:38HOU Touchdown
(10:38) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-N.Dell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CIN 7
Q2 · 0:15HOU Field goal
(:15) 16-M.Ammendola 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 10 — CIN 7
Q3 · 9:30HOU Field goal
(9:30) 16-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — CIN 7
Q3 · 7:12HOU Touchdown
(7:12) 26-D.Singletary right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CIN 7
Q3 · 3:05CIN Field goal
(3:05) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CIN 10
Q3 · 0:21CIN Touchdown
(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CIN 17
Q4 · 12:52HOU Touchdown
(12:52) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 27 — CIN 17
Q4 · 3:22CIN Touchdown
(3:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 27 — CIN 24
Q4 · 1:37CIN Field goal
(1:37) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: HOU 27 — CIN 27
Q4 · 0:05HOU Field goal
(:05) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 30 — CIN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Bengals
Offensive plays	74	59
Total yards	544 (edge)	381
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	45% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	55%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	4/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	15 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

23/39, 356 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.1 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

27/40, 347 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

30 att, 150 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

11 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Noah BrownWR

7/8 for 172 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 11.8 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

5/6 for 124 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	12	60	5:17	Touchdown +7
2	HOU	HOU 25	7	20	1:47	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 12	8	26	4:14	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 18	9	78	3:42	Fumble
5	CIN	CIN 11	4	7	1:24	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 34	8	60	3:03	Touchdown +7
7	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	1:34	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 20	7	54	3:28	Fumble
9	CIN	CIN 28	4	9	2:51	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 12	9	61	2:30	Field goal +3
11	CIN	CIN 9	2	0	0:10	End of half
12	HOU	HOU 25	12	72	5:33	Field goal +3
13	CIN	CIN 25	5	-11	1:28	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 41	3	17	0:51	Touchdown +7
15	CIN	CIN 25	8	53	4:08	Field goal +3
16	HOU	HOU 25	5	7	1:27	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 27	4	65	1:23	Touchdown +7
18	HOU	HOU 25	8	75	2:23	Touchdown +7
19	CIN	CIN 24	8	41	3:12	Interception
20	HOU	HOU 24	7	30	3:45	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 8	7	64	1:57	Interception
22	HOU	HOU 20	3	8	0:20	Interception
23	CIN	HOU 4	3	1	0:15	Touchdown +7
24	HOU	HOU 25	5	7	1:08	Punt
25	CIN	CIN 29	6	58	0:37	Field goal +3
26	HOU	HOU 25	7	55	1:33	Field goal +3

11 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	23/39	356	1	1	1	5.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	30	150	5.0	1	2.4
Xavier Hutchinson	1	17	17.0	0	1.1
Tank Dell	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
C.J. Stroud	2	8	4.0	1	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Brown	7	8	172	0	21%	11.8
Dalton Schultz	4	6	71	0	15%	3.1
Tank Dell	6	14	56	1	36%	-6.6
John Metchie	2	2	25	0	5%	1.6
Robert Woods	1	3	15	0	8%	0.1
Devin Singletary	1	2	11	0	5%	0.6
Mike Boone	2	3	6	0	8%	-0.9
Xavier Hutchinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tavierre Thomas	3	4	0.0	0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	7	0	0.0	1	1
Blake Cashman	3	3	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	2	3	0.0	1	1
Sheldon Rankins	5	0	3.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Harris	1	3	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Denzel Perryman	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dare Ogunbowale	2	0	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	27/40	347	2	2	4	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	11	46	4.2	1	-1.8
Joe Burrow	5	20	4.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	5	6	124	1	15%	9.3
Tyler Boyd	8	12	117	0	31%	0.9
Trenton Irwin	2	4	54	1	10%	5.6
Tanner Hudson	6	7	33	0	18%	3.5
Drew Sample	2	3	12	0	8%	-4.2
Irv Smith	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Trayveon Williams	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.6
Mitchell Wilcox	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Andrei Iosivas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Joe Mixon	2	3	-1	0	8%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cam Taylor-Britt	7	2	0.0	1	2
Chidobe Awuzie	5	3	0.0	0	1
Dax Hill	4	3	0.0	0	2
Cam Sample	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	2	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	1	4	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	1	3	0.5	0	1
Trey Hendrickson	2	2	0.5	0	0
D.J. Turner	1	2	0.0	0	1
Nick Scott	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -5.5
Closing total: 46
HOU moneyline: +205
CIN moneyline: -250

Bengals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: HOU 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Zac Taylor