2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Deutsche Bank Park

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

New England Patriots

IND -1 ✓U 42 ✓Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.

Indianapolis Colts 10–6. Biggest swing: Q4 4:25, IND +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:25IND 10 — NE 6NE ball · 2nd & 12IND 56%

(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:25IND +19% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
Q4 · 7:25NE +16% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q4 · 2:52NE +12% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs to IND 38 for 28 yards (2-J.Mills).
Q3 · 8:41IND +12% win prob(8:41) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:14NE Field goal
(8:14) 37-C.Ryland 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: IND 0 — NE 3
Q1 · 1:02IND Touchdown
(1:02) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 7 — NE 3
Q4 · 12:47NE Field goal
(12:47) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: IND 7 — NE 6
Q4 · 8:58IND Field goal
(8:58) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 10 — NE 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Patriots
Offensive plays	53	68
Total yards	265	340 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.0
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.00 (edge)
Success rate	43%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Patriots outgained Colts 340–265 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

18/28, 194 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

15/20, 170 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

20 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

23 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/12 for 84 yds, 0 TD

46% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Demario DouglasWR

6/9 for 84 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 20	14	61	6:49	Field goal +3
2	IND	IND 25	16	75	7:13	Touchdown +7
3	NE	NE 25	8	12	3:25	Punt
4	IND	IND 13	4	0	0:30	Punt
5	NE	NE 18	4	7	1:53	Punt
6	IND	IND 29	4	9	1:50	Punt
7	NE	NE 20	4	1	1:52	Punt
8	IND	IND 20	7	42	2:54	Punt
9	NE	NE 13	6	27	2:24	Punt
10	IND	IND 20	7	36	1:08	Missed field goal
11	NE	NE 47	1	30	0:02	End of half
12	IND	IND 25	5	27	2:25	Interception
13	NE	50	8	33	3:57	Missed field goal
14	IND	IND 25	6	11	2:50	Punt
15	NE	NE 6	15	93	8:04	Field goal +3
16	IND	IND 47	8	20	3:50	Field goal +3
17	NE	NE 25	10	50	4:38	Interception
18	IND	IND 5	7	45	2:24	Punt
19	NE	NE 14	8	26	1:21	Interception
20	IND	IND 42	1	0	0:31	End of game

4 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 93 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	18/28	194	0	1	0	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	23	69	3.0	1	-1.7
Zack Moss	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Gardner Minshew	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	8	12	84	46%	0.8
Josh Downs	2	3	40	12%	1.6
Isaiah McKenzie	4	4	31	15%	3.2
Alec Pierce	1	1	21	4%	1.3
Will Mallory	1	2	7	8%	-0.4
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	6	4%	-0.4
Kylen Granson	1	2	5	8%	-0.7
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zaire Franklin	10	3	0.0	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	2	7	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	4	4	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Jones	4	1	0.0	0	0
Dayo Odeyingbo	4	0	3.0	0	0
Darrell Baker	3	1	0.0	0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	0	0.0	1	2
Kwity Paye	1	1	1.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	2	0	1.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	15/20	170	0	1	5	-3.6
Bailey Zappe	3/7	25	0	1	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	20	88	4.4	3.5
Ezekiel Elliott	13	54	4.2	-0.3
Mac Jones	3	25	8.3	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	6	9	84	35%	1.9
Ezekiel Elliott	2	2	34	8%	2.5
Mike Gesicki	2	3	22	12%	-1.4
Hunter Henry	3	5	21	19%	-0.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	5	14	19%	-2.2
Kayshon Boutte	1	1	11	4%	1.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	1	9	4%	1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Davon Godchaux	3	4	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	3	3	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	3	3	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	2	2	0	0
Christian Barmore	2	2	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	1	0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0	1
Kyle Dugger	2	1	0	0
Shaun Wade	3	0	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1
Closing total: 42
IND moneyline: -118
NE moneyline: -102

Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 42; the game landed 16 — under by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Deutsche Bank Park
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: IND 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Shane Steichen vs Bill Belichick