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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Deutsche Bank Park
Final
ColtsIndianapolis10
BY 4final margin
PatriotsNew England6
Indianapolis Colts 10 at New England Patriots 6. Final.
Colts -1 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 10
Indianapolis Colts 10, Patriots 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:25, 2nd and 12, on Julian Blackmon — 19.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:25 · 2nd and 12
Julian Blackmon
Colts
(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Indianapolis Colts 10–6. Biggest swing: Q4 4:25, Colts +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Demario DouglasPatriotsQ4 7:25(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore).
16.1pts
Josh DownsColtsQ4 2:52(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs to IND 38 for 28 yards (2-J.Mills).
11.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Colts won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Colts152 of 162 plays carry both curves
(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
Swing −19.1 for PatriotsExpected points −3.84 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 8 points higher than the market did.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:25IND +19% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
4th · 7:25NE +16% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore).
4th · 2:52NE +12% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs to IND 38 for 28 yards (2-J.Mills).
3rd · 8:41IND +12% win prob(8:41) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4th · 0:36IND +11% win prob(:36) (No Huddle) 4-B.Zappe pass deep middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Thomas at IND 37. 25-R.Thomas to IND 42 for 5 yards.
1st · 7:29NE +10% win prob(7:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at NE 41 for 30 yards (27-M.Bryant).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:02 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:14Chad Ryland·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+30–3
1st1:02Jonathan Taylor·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
4th12:47Chad Ryland·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+37–6
4th8:58Matt Gay·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–6
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryPatriots
Colts3–4Patriots
265Total yards340
5.0Yards per play5.0
43%Success rate53%
38%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
12First downs20
0Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Colts: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.00Patriots: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.10Patriots: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Patriots’s 68 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Colts 1, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots outgained Colts 340-265 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 3.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 26.5%, is past their previous high of 22.2% in week 5 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 9.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.2 pts in week 9 against −14.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 9 against 41.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +10.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots3.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%57 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
75Will FriesG · Full-time98%56 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Full-time98%56 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time95%54 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Full-time88%50 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Heavy rotation56%32 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational46%26 snaps
62Wesley FrenchC · Rotational40%23 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Rotational25%14 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational16%9 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Situational16%9 snaps
9Juwann WinfreeWR · Situational2%1 snap
73Blake FreelandT · Situational2%1 snap
65Josh SillsG · Situational2%1 snap
27Trey SermonRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Julius BrentsCBJack AndersonGArlington HambrightGCameron McGroneMLBAndrew OgletreeTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Sam EhlingerQB
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
62Sidy SowT · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%69 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%69 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%69 snaps
7JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Every snap99%68 snaps
75Conor McDermottT · Full-time91%63 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Full-time89%61 snaps
81Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation73%50 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation73%50 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
Q4 4:25 · Patriots · 2nd & 12 at IND 15 · gained nothing · -3.84 EP · −20.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR39-0.1336%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1367%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.2882%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4025%
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.0722%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Colts0Patriots3
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Colts 14
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.7 seconds
Colts6Patriots3
Colts7Patriots3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 32
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 43
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 25
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 38
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 28
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Patriots 38
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Patriots 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 43
No good8 plays, from midfield to the Colts 17
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 49
The period ended12 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Colts 26
4th quarter45 plays
Colts7Patriots6
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 5
Colts10Patriots6
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Patriots 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Colts 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 46
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
