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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Deutsche Bank Park
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 10
It turned at Q4 4:25, 2nd and 12, on Julian Blackmon — 19.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 10–6. Biggest swing: Q4 4:25, Colts +19.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:25 · 2nd and 12
Julian Blackmon
Colts
(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Colts won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jonathan Taylor's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:02 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Patriots’s 68 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Colts 1, Patriots 4.
Patriots outgained Colts 340-265 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate, 3.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
IND's sack or hit rate, 26.5%, is past their previous high of 22.2% in week 5 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.2 pts in week 9 against −14.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 9 against 41.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-6.9 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -4.2 pts, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 53 snaps
Patriots-14.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.3 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 86%
Tendencies room →Colts47.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 38 early downs
Patriots41.5%leaned — ran early · −14.2 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 54%
Tendencies room →Colts17.9%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Patriots17.6%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Colts40.0%right on their number · +5.9 vs their 34.1%, and they swing ±30.8 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots20.0%right on their number · −11.2 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Colts11.8%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots21.4%leaned — sat back · −11.5 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Colts26.5%leaned — got home · +10.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots3.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
IND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
18/28, 194 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2.4 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected
Passing · NE
15/20, 170 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
8/12 for 84 yds, 0 TD
46% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Isaiah McKenzie banked 1.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.4 | −2.0 | 95% | 93% | 46% | 46% | 8/12, 84 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.5 | −2.1 | 88% | 86% | 4% | 0% | 23 car, 69 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +1.4 | 73% | 85% | 35% | 48% | 6/9, 84 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 13.2 | −3.3 | 67% | 76% | 19% | 0% | 20 car, 88 yd · 3/5, 14 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | +0.8 | 33% | 24% | 8% | 0% | 13 car, 54 yd · 2/2, 34 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −1.5 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 170 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 25 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.8 | 46% | 46% | 15% | 8% | 4/4, 31 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +0.9 | 25% | 43% | 12% | 26% | 2/3, 40 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 5.7 | −7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/28, 194 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −3.8 | 73% | 82% | 19% | 26% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.1 | 67% | 59% | 12% | 25% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.4 | 96% | 100% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.4 | 38% | 50% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 99% | 100% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.1 | 16% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.1 | 56% | 57% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | 16% | 14% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 60% | 43% | 4% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 48% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Bailey ZappeQB | -1.0 | −2.7 | 12% | — | 0% | — | 3/7, 25 yd, 1 INT |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 1. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (69-C.Strange).
Q4 4:25 · Patriots · 2nd & 12 at IND 15 · gained nothing · -3.84 EP · −20.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Patriots3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Colts6Patriots3Colts7Patriots3Colts7Patriots6Colts10Patriots6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/28 | 194 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Gardner Minshew |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 | 46% | +0.8 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 10 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/20 | 170 | 0 | 1 | 5 | −3.6 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3/7 | 25 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_10_IND_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 42; the game landed 16 — under by 26.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| -1 |
| -0.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| +1.6 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 15% | +3.2 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Lewis | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Douglas | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 | 35% | +1.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 8% | +2.5 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% | −0.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 19% | −2.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +1.5 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Godchaux | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Wade | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
