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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans19
BY 8final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
New Orleans Saints 19 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Saints -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 10
Minnesota Vikings 27, Saints 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:56, 1st and 10, on Byron Murphy — 11.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:56 · 1st and 10
Byron Murphy
Vikings
(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 9. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 13 for 4 yards (17-A.Perry). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.
O 41 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 27–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:56, Vikings +11.4% win probability on one snap.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.J. HockensonVikingsQ2 11:54(11:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NO 4 for 24 yards (29-P.Adebo).
10.3pts
A.T. PerrySaintsQ4 11:48(11:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Saints174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 9. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 13 for 4 yards (17-A.Perry). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.
Swing +11.4 for VikingsExpected points +3.40 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 4 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:56NO +11% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 9. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 13 for 4 yards (17-A.Perry). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 11:54MIN +10% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NO 4 for 24 yards (29-P.Adebo).
4th · 11:48MIN +8% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:14MIN +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-A.Perry to MIN 23 for 23 yards (22-H.Smith).
2nd · 3:40MIN +7% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:12MIN +7% win prob(6:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NO 36 for 13 yards (28-L.Johnson). Penalty on NO-28-L.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ty Chandler's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:17 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:52Greg Joseph·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+30–3
1st1:23Blake Grupe·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd10:17Ty Chandler·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
Vikings ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Saints: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.10Vikings: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Saints: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.27Vikings: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Saints: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.16Vikings: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Vikings’s 68 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.0% in week 7.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
NO's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, is past their previous high of 67.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 9.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
MIN's blitz rate sent, 21.3%, is past their previous low of 34.4% in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, +5.1 pts, is past their previous high of +1.9 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Vikings14.9%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.6%, 22.3 points above their season mean of 53.3% and 1.9 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−8% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 9. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 13 for 4 yards (17-A.Perry). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 1:56 · Saints · 1st & 10 at MIN 46 · gained nothing · -3.40 EP · −8.1% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 82 yards from the MIN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
672
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1159%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0783%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1135%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4610%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR9-0.37100%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.18100%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Saints0Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 22
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Vikings 44
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 26
Saints3Vikings3
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Vikings 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 36
2nd quarter47 plays
Saints3Vikings9
Saints3Vikings10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Saints 2
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Saints3Vikings16
Saints3Vikings17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Saints 7
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 33
Saints3Vikings23
Saints3Vikings24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Saints 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 34
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Saints3Vikings27
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Saints 15
Saints9Vikings27
Saints11Vikings27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Vikings 14
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt4 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Saints 40
4th quarter55 plays
No good1 play
Saints17Vikings27
Saints19Vikings27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Vikings 15
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 29
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Saints 12
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 49
Intercepted7 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 44
The period ended6 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Vikings 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Vikings 22
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Saintscategory by categoryVikings
Saints0
Vikings3
