2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Minnesota VikingsWinner

NO -3 upsetO 41 ✓DomeSaints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 27–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:56, NO +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:56NO 19 — MIN 27NO ball · 1st & 10MIN 87%

(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 9. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 13 for 4 yards (17-A.Perry). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:56NO +11% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 9. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 13 for 4 yards (17-A.Perry). Penalty on NO-75-A.Peat, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 11:54MIN +10% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NO 4 for 24 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Q4 · 11:48MIN +8% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:14MIN +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-A.Perry to MIN 23 for 23 yards (22-H.Smith).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:52MIN Field goal
(10:52) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NO 0 — MIN 3
Q1 · 1:23NO Field goal
(1:23) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 3 — MIN 3
Q2 · 10:17MIN Touchdown
(10:17) Direct snap to 32-T.Chandler. 32-T.Chandler left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 3 — MIN 10
Q2 · 3:40MIN Touchdown
(3:40) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 3 — MIN 17
Q2 · 0:22MIN Touchdown
(:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 3 — MIN 24
Q3 · 10:13MIN Field goal
(10:13) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NO 3 — MIN 27
Q3 · 5:31NO Touchdown
(5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 11 — MIN 27
Q4 · 11:48NO Touchdown
(11:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 19 — MIN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Vikings
Offensive plays	63	68
Total yards	284	388 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	37%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	4/14	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Joshua DobbsQB

23/34, 268 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.3 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

13/25, 122 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-4.6 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

15 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Joshua DobbsQB

8 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

11/15 for 134 yds, 1 TD

47% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

6/9 for 94 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	9	63	4:13	Field goal +3
2	NO	NO 25	9	28	3:05	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 20	4	6	1:25	Punt
4	NO	NO 24	10	56	4:58	Field goal +3
5	MIN	MIN 25	13	70	6:05	Touchdown +7
6	NO	NO 25	5	9	2:03	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 18	10	77	4:41	Touchdown +7
8	NO	NO 29	5	4	1:43	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 24	8	81	1:31	Touchdown +7
10	NO	NO 27	3	13	0:16	End of half
11	NO	NO 25	5	9	2:04	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 36	7	34	2:47	Field goal +3
13	NO	NO 25	12	77	4:43	Touchdown +8
14	MIN	MIN 25	5	9	2:27	Punt
15	NO	NO 16	4	0	0:22	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 47	7	17	2:42	Missed field goal
17	NO	NO 44	10	53	3:15	Touchdown +8
18	MIN	MIN 25	9	26	3:12	Punt
19	NO	NO 7	4	3	2:13	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 47	4	-2	1:21	Punt
21	NO	NO 17	6	32	1:48	Interception
22	MIN	MIN 18	4	-2	0:59	Punt
23	NO	NO 49	2	0	0:18	Interception
24	MIN	MIN 13	4	9	1:43	Punt
25	NO	MIN 48	1	0	0:06	End of game

8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 81 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	13/25	122	2	2	1	-4.6
Derek Carr	13/18	110	0	0	2	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	9	42	4.7	5.8
Derek Carr	1	10	10.0	0.3
Jamaal Williams	4	7	1.8	-2.5
Taysom Hill	1	6	6.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	6	9	94	1	23%	6.5
A.T. Perry	2	4	38	1	10%	3.8
Alvin Kamara	7	7	33	0	18%	-0.5
Rashid Shaheed	5	9	24	0	23%	-8.6
Taysom Hill	2	4	17	0	10%	-0.3
Lynn Bowden	1	1	12	0	3%	0.5
Michael Thomas	1	2	9	0	5%	0.1
Jamaal Williams	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Juwan Johnson	1	3	2	0	8%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Paulson Adebo	5	4	0.0	2
Tyrann Mathieu	6	1	0.0	0
Demario Davis	4	3	1.0	0
Pete Werner	2	3	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	5	0	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	1	3	0.0	0
Malcolm Roach	2	2	0.0	1
Alontae Taylor	3	1	0.0	2
Marshon Lattimore	3	1	0.0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	1	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	23/34	268	1	0	1	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ty Chandler	15	45	3.0	1	-3.7
Joshua Dobbs	8	44	5.5	1	3.5
Alexander Mattison	8	27	3.4	0	-2.1
Kene Nwangwu	2	9	4.5	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	11	15	134	1	47%	9.2
Jordan Addison	4	7	69	0	22%	1.1
Brandon Powell	4	5	35	0	16%	1.5
Jalen Nailor	1	1	16	0	3%	1.1
Johnny Mundt	2	2	8	0	6%	0.0
Alexander Mattison	1	2	6	0	6%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	3	4	0.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	4	2	0.0	0	0
Ivan Pace	3	2	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	4	1	0.0	0	0
Troy Dye	2	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	3	1	1.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	1	2	0.0	0	1
Theo Jackson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	2	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	3	0	0.0	1	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3
Closing total: 41
NO moneyline: -155
MIN moneyline: +130

Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 46 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: NO 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Kevin O'Connell