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Dallas Cowboys 49, Giants 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:20, 4th and 2, on Tony Pollard — 7.5 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:20 · 4th and 2
Tony Pollard
Giants
(10:20) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYG 1 for 1 yard (51-A.Ojulari; 97-D.Lawrence).
Dome
Cowboys closed -17.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Dallas Cowboys 49–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:20, Giants +7.5% win probability on one snap.
7.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ1 7:18(7:18) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
3.4pts
Saquon BarkleyCowboysQ2 13:28(13:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to DAL 4 for no gain (95-J.Hankins, 90-D.Lawrence).
3.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 16 chunk plays, against Giants at 6 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Giants at 0 of 12 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.25 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(10:20) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYG 1 for 1 yard (51-A.Ojulari; 97-D.Lawrence).
Swing −7.5 for CowboysExpected points −2.27 for CowboysThe model had Giants 32 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:20NYG +8% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYG 1 for 1 yard (51-A.Ojulari; 97-D.Lawrence).
1st · 7:18NYG +3% win prob(7:18) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
2nd · 13:28NYG +3% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to DAL 4 for no gain (95-J.Hankins, 90-D.Lawrence).
1st · 8:14NYG +3% win prob(8:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-19-I.Simmons.
1st · 5:26DAL +3% win prob(5:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 42-D.Vaughn to NYG 46 for -2 yards (30-D.Holmes).
1st · 6:33NYG +3% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NYG 4 for -3 yards (58-M.Smith). NYG-78-A.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 3:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
CeeDee Lamb's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 3:44 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:44CeeDee Lamb·14-yd TD run14-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd8:52Jake Ferguson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–14
2nd3:52Brandin Cooks·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–21
4th0:10Sterling Shepard·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tommy DeVitofrom Tommy DeVito+717–49
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants1–8Cowboys
173Total yards641
3.2Yards per play8.4
31%Success rate53%
0%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns6
6Explosive plays16
12First downs31
5Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Giants: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.31Cowboys: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Giants: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.47Cowboys: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Giants: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 76 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Cowboys 8.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's play-action rate, 41.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 7.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 37.5% in week 4.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 9.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 10 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 39.0 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.4% in week 9 against 54.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cowboys18.9%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteDAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.3%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 25.3% and 1.8 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Gillan punts+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-19-I.Simmons.
Q1 8:14 · Giants · 4th & 6 at NYG 5 · gained nothing · -0.08 EP · +9.5% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 96 yards from the DAL 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.4060%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2070%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1867%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.6336%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2920%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 2
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 1 to the Giants 5
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Cowboys 49
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Giants 7
Giants0Cowboys6
Giants0Cowboys7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 14
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 25
2nd quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 4
Giants0Cowboys13
Giants0Cowboys14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 4 to the Giants 1
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Giants0Cowboys20
Giants0Cowboys21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Giants 10
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Giants0Cowboys27
Giants0Cowboys28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Giants 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 43
Giants6Cowboys28
Giants7Cowboys28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Cowboys 10
Giants7Cowboys34
Giants7Cowboys35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Giants 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Giants7Cowboys41
Giants7Cowboys42
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Giants 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 36
4th quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 27
Giants10Cowboys42
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 17
Giants10Cowboys48
Giants10Cowboys49
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 1
Giants16Cowboys49
Giants17Cowboys49
Touchdown21 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
