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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on 49ers147 of 157 plays carry both curves
(14:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 98-J.Hargrave).
Swing −6.2 for JaguarsExpected points −2.30 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 15 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:14SF +6% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 98-J.Hargrave).
3rd · 14:21JAX +6% win prob(14:21) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:22JAX +5% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at JAX 13 for 29 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
3rd · 5:39SF +4% win prob(5:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 13-C.Kirk to SF 6 for 3 yards (20-A.Thomas). FUMBLES (20-A.Thomas), touched at SF 7, RECOVERED by SF-20-A.Thomas at SF 8. 20-A.Thomas for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34.
1st · 11:42JAX +4% win prob(11:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:14JAX +4% win prob(7:14) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at SF 31 for 17 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Aiyuk's 13-yard touchdown catch with 11:42 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.3249ers: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.47Jaguars: −0.47 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.4949ers: +0.49 expected points added per play
−0.60Jaguars: −0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 57 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 72%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 7, Jaguars 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars23.3%
leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 7.4 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.2 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Every snap100%62 snaps
55Jon FelicianoC · Every snap100%62 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%62 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Heavy rotation79%49 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+7% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:21) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:21 · 49ers · 2nd & 1 at SF 34 · gained 66 · +5.37 EP · +7.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 81 yards from the SF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
658
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.4568%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.0542%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.1665%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16+1.1338%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.5677%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
49ers6Jaguars0
49ers7Jaguars0
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Jaguars 13
Punt6 plays
49ers10Jaguars0
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Jaguars 13
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 44
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the 49ers 41
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Jaguars 47
49ers10Jaguars3
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the 49ers 19
49ers13Jaguars3
Field goal17 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Jaguars 11
3rd quarter38 plays
49ers19Jaguars3
49ers20Jaguars3
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the 49ers 34
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 43 to midfield
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the 49ers 9
49ers26Jaguars3
49ers27Jaguars3
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the Jaguars 23
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 48
4th quarter35 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Jaguars 43
49ers33Jaguars3
49ers34Jaguars3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 22
Punt6 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Jaguars 3
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 11
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3
Closing total
44.5
49ers moneyline
-170
Jaguars moneyline
+142
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
49ers 14 days · Jaguars 14 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Doug Pederson
2nd · 13:26SF +4% win prob(13:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at SF 48 for -2 yards (sack split by 97-N.Bosa and 92-C.Young). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [92-C.Young], RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 49.
1st · 15:00SF +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right [54-F.Warner].
