2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

SF -3 ✓U 44.5 ✓49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.

San Francisco 49ers 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:14, SF +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:14SF 0 — JAX 0JAX ball · 3rd & 5SF 63%

(14:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 98-J.Hargrave).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:14SF +6% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 98-J.Hargrave).
Q3 · 14:21JAX +6% win prob(14:21) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:22JAX +5% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at JAX 13 for 29 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Q3 · 5:39SF +4% win prob(5:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 13-C.Kirk to SF 6 for 3 yards (20-A.Thomas). FUMBLES (20-A.Thomas), touched at SF 7, RECOVERED by SF-20-A.Thomas at SF 8. 20-A.Thomas for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:42SF Touchdown
(11:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — JAX 0
Q1 · 4:25SF Field goal
(4:25) 4-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 10 — JAX 0
Q2 · 4:24JAX Field goal
(4:24) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: SF 10 — JAX 3
Q2 · 0:03SF Field goal
(:03) 4-J.Moody 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 13 — JAX 3
Q3 · 14:21SF Touchdown
(14:21) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 20 — JAX 3
Q3 · 1:29SF Touchdown
(1:29) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 27 — JAX 3
Q4 · 12:48SF Touchdown
(12:48) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 34 — JAX 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Jaguars
Offensive plays	57	54
Total yards	440 (edge)	221
Yards per play	7.7 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	-0.47
Success rate	49% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	53%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.49 (edge)	-0.60
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/26, 296 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.1 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

17/29, 185 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-17.3 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

16 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

9 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

3/4 for 116 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

6/11 for 104 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	5	-1	1:21	Punt
2	SF	SF 43	5	57	2:05	Touchdown +7
3	JAX	JAX 25	5	0	2:35	Punt
4	SF	SF 38	10	41	4:38	Field goal +3
5	JAX	JAX 23	8	21	2:50	Punt
6	SF	SF 20	4	13	1:41	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 43	4	13	1:28	Fumble
8	SF	SF 49	4	4	1:26	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 1	14	85	7:36	Field goal +3
10	SF	SF 22	12	59	4:20	Field goal +3
11	SF	SF 25	4	75	0:50	Touchdown +7
12	JAX	JAX 25	7	41	3:33	Interception
13	SF	SF 43	4	6	2:08	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 15	8	63	3:12	Defensive touchdown
15	SF	SF 19	8	81	3:57	Touchdown +7
16	JAX	JAX 23	6	-3	2:08	Interception
17	SF	JAX 40	4	40	1:32	Touchdown +7
18	JAX	JAX 25	5	-4	0:53	Punt
19	SF	SF 31	13	64	8:51	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	JAX 5	4	6	1:13	Punt
21	SF	SF 35	3	0	1:43	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	19/26	296	3	0	2	17.1
Sam Darnold	1/2	6	0	0	0	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	16	95	5.9	0	3.4
Deebo Samuel	3	29	9.7	1	2.3
Elijah Mitchell	8	23	2.9	0	-2.0
Sam Darnold	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	3	4	116	1	15%	8.8
Brandon Aiyuk	3	3	55	1	11%	6.3
Christian McCaffrey	6	10	47	0	37%	-1.9
Deebo Samuel	4	4	30	0	15%	1.0
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	26	1	11%	2.1
Ronnie Bell	1	1	20	0	4%	2.5
Jauan Jennings	1	2	8	0	7%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Talanoa Hufanga	5	3	0.0	1	1
Dre Greenlaw	5	2	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	4	3	0.0	0	0
Fred Warner	3	3	0.0	1	1
Ambry Thomas	3	0	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	2	1	0.5	0	0
Nick Bosa	1	1	1.5	0	1
Javon Hargrave	1	1	1.5	0	0
Shemar Jean-Charles	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Mason	1	1	0.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	17/29	185	2	5	-17.3
C.J. Beathard	1/2	5	0	0	-1.1
Christian Kirk	0/1	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	9	35	3.9	-0.1
D'Ernest Johnson	3	12	4.0	-1.0
Trevor Lawrence	2	7	3.5	-0.3
Tank Bigsby	3	5	1.7	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	6	11	104	35%	-3.0
D'Ernest Johnson	2	2	28	6%	2.7
Calvin Ridley	2	3	20	10%	1.1
Tim Jones	2	2	17	6%	1.5
Evan Engram	4	7	12	23%	-3.4
Travis Etienne	2	4	9	13%	-2.4
Tank Bigsby	0	1	0	3%	-5.5
Brenton Strange	0	1	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	6	3	2.0	0
Devin Lloyd	5	3	0.0	0
Andrew Wingard	2	4	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	3	2	0.0	1
Tre Herndon	3	1	0.0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	2	1	0.0	0
Andre Cisco	1	2	0.0	0
Adam Gotsis	1	2	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	1	1	0.0	0
Gregory Junior	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3
Closing total: 44.5
SF moneyline: -170
JAX moneyline: +142

49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: SF 14 days · JAX 14 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Doug Pederson