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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 10
It turned at Q1 14:14, 3rd and 5, on Trevor Lawrence — 6.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:14, 49ers +6.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:14 · 3rd and 5
Trevor Lawrence
49ers
(14:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 98-J.Hargrave).
6.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.47 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.60 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(14:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 98-J.Hargrave).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon Aiyuk's 13-yard touchdown catch with 11:42 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Brandon Aiyuk13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+77–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryJaguars
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 57 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 72%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 7, Jaguars 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-2.3 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 57 snaps
Jaguars8.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 88%
Tendencies room →49ers47.7%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 44 early downs
Jaguars65.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 43%
Tendencies room →49ers20.0%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jaguars20.5%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 90%
Fourth Down room →49ers66.7%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →49ers12.8%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars30.0%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →49ers23.1%leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars23.3%leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 7.4 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.2 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/26, 296 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.1 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
17/29, 185 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-17.3 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
6/11 for 104 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · -3.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 13.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 23.8 | +11.8 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 19/26, 296 yd, 3 TD |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 20.6 | +13.5 | 73% | 90% | 15% | 40% | 3/4, 116 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 20.2 | −8.8 | 76% | 93% | 37% | 0% | 16 car, 95 yd · 6/10, 47 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.9 | +6.9 | 56% | 70% | 15% | 5% | 3 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 30 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +6.7 | 68% | 83% | 11% | 27% | 3/3, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | −3.9 | 89% | 95% | 35% | 68% | 0/1, 0 yd · 6/11, 104 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 10.6 | +4.2 | 61% | 57% | 11% | 15% | 2/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 6.4 | −3.1 | 61% | 64% | 13% | 8% | 9 car, 35 yd · 2/4, 9 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 6.0 | +1.8 | 21% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 2/2, 28 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 5.2 | −4.4 | 86% | 95% | 23% | 1% | 4/7, 12 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.5 | 91% | 92% | 10% | 12% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.1 | 58% | 49% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.3 | 19% | 13% | 4% | 11% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 2.3 | −1.5 | 27% | 10% | 0% | — | 8 car, 23 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 2.1 | −8.4 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 185 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.0 | 29% | 37% | 7% | 2% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.5 | −1.8 | 18% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| C.J. BeathardQB | 0.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 25% | 18% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Sam DarnoldQB | -0.1 | −3.4 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 1/2, 6 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:21) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:21 · 49ers · 2nd & 1 at SF 34 · gained 66 · +5.37 EP · +7.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 81 yards from the SF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Jaguars049ers7Jaguars049ers10Jaguars049ers10Jaguars349ers13Jaguars349ers19Jaguars349ers20Jaguars349ers26Jaguars349ers27Jaguars349ers33Jaguars349ers34Jaguars3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/26 | 296 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +17.1 |
| Sam Darnold | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 116 | 1 | 15% | +8.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 3 | 55 | 1 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talanoa Hufanga | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/29 | 185 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −17.3 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1/2 | 5 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_10_SF_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| Elijah Mitchell | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +6.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 37% | −1.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15% | +1.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 11% | +2.1 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +1.0 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Fred Warner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ambry Thomas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Hargrave | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar Jean-Charles | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Christian Kirk | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 35% | −3.0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +2.7 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Tim Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 23% | −3.4 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −2.4 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.5 |
| Brenton Strange | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Herndon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Junior | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
