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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee6
BY 14final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
Tennessee Titans 6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. Final.
Buccaneers -2.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Titans 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:49, 1st and 10, on Rachaad White — 18.4 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:49 · 1st and 10
Rachaad White
Buccaneers
(5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons].
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–6. Biggest swing: Q2 5:49, Buccaneers +18.4% win probability on one snap.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ1 0:55(:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to TB 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-39-M.Jackson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at TB 12.
7.3pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ3 12:17(12:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to TEN 8 for 43 yards (21-R.McCreary).
14.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.27 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Titans at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Titans at 6 of 15 on third down.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Titans156 of 162 plays carry both curves
(5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons].
Swing +18.4 for BuccaneersExpected points +3.99 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 6 points higher than the market did.play 54
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:49TB +18% win prob(5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons].
3rd · 12:17TB +15% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to TEN 8 for 43 yards (21-R.McCreary).
1st · 0:55TB +7% win prob(:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to TB 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-39-M.Jackson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at TB 12.
2nd · 0:36TB +6% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears right tackle to TEN 9 for 2 yards (94-C.Kancey).
1st · 5:54TEN +6% win prob(5:54) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TEN 42 for -7 yards (93-T.Tart).
1st · 9:14TEN +6% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at TB 20 for -9 yards (50-V.Vea).
3rd · 2:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rachaad White's 43-yard touchdown catch with 5:49 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:38Nick Folk·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–0
4th12:57Nick Folk·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+36–17
4th7:05Chase McLaughlin·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+36–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Titans0–7Buccaneers
209Total yards341
3.5Yards per play5.7
34%Success rate35%
40%Third-down rate47%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays6
12First downs16
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Titans: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Titans: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.27Buccaneers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Titans: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.23Buccaneers: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate, 30.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.0% in week 2.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Buccaneers30.2%
off script — got home · +17.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.2%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 13.2% and 2.2 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiT · Every snap100%63 snaps
66Christopher HubbardT · Every snap100%63 snaps
8Will LevisQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%63 snaps
11Chris MooreWR · Full-time83%52 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
76Andrew RupcichT · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
32Tyjae SpearsRB · Heavy rotation60%38 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Rotational43%27 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational43%27 snaps
88Trevon WescoTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
18Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational35%22 snaps
71Andre DillardT · Rotational29%18 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Daniel BrunskillCSean Murphy-BuntingCBCaleb MurphyOLBRashad WeaverOLBRyan TannehillQBTreylon BurksWRColton DowellWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to TEN 8 for 43 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q3 12:17 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 10 at TB 49 · gained 43 · +4.01 EP · +10.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
34%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0555%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2882%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.3956%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4146%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Titans3Buccaneers0
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Buccaneers 9
Intercepted7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Titans 35
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 7 to the Buccaneers 9
2nd quarter38 plays
Punt1 play
No good4 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 32
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Titans3Buccaneers6
Titans3Buccaneers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Titans 43
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Titans 41
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Titans3Buccaneers10
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Titans 7
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 47
Titans3Buccaneers16
Titans3Buccaneers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Titans 22
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Buccaneers 27
4th quarter52 plays
Titans6Buccaneers17
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 6
Titans6Buccaneers20
Field goal15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Titans 17
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Titans 38
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Buccaneers 39
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Buccaneers 47
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
