2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -2.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–6. Biggest swing: Q2 5:49, TB +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:49TEN 3 — TB 6TB ball · 1st & 10TB 51%

(5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:49TB +18% win prob(5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons].
Q3 · 12:17TB +15% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to TEN 8 for 43 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q1 · 0:55TB +7% win prob(:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to TB 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-39-M.Jackson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at TB 12.
Q2 · 0:36TB +6% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears right tackle to TEN 9 for 2 yards (94-C.Kancey).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:38TEN Field goal
(8:38) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — TB 0
Q2 · 5:49TB Touchdown
(5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons]. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 3 — TB 7
Q3 · 10:45TB Field goal
(10:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — TB 10
Q3 · 2:53TB Touchdown
(2:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 3 — TB 17
Q4 · 12:57TEN Field goal
(12:57) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — TB 17
Q4 · 7:05TB Field goal
(7:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — TB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	59	60
Total yards	209	341 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	34%	35% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.23 (edge)
Third downs	6/15	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

18/29, 278 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.9 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

19/39, 199 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.6 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

20 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-7.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

11 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/10 for 143 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Kyle PhilipsWR

3/5 for 61 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	13	50	6:26	Field goal +3
2	TB	TB 25	7	33	3:32	Interception
3	TEN	TEN 17	7	9	4:19	Punt
4	TB	TB 7	4	2	0:54	Punt
5	TEN	TB 41	4	8	2:10	Missed field goal
6	TB	TB 41	4	4	1:27	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 24	4	16	2:24	Punt
8	TB	TB 15	7	85	3:09	Touchdown +7
9	TEN	TEN 25	5	4	1:01	Punt
10	TB	TB 31	9	28	4:02	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 7	1	2	0:36	End of half
12	TB	TB 25	12	68	4:18	Field goal +3
13	TEN	TEN 25	8	15	3:11	Punt
14	TB	TB 20	9	80	4:45	Touchdown +7
15	TEN	TEN 25	12	46	4:52	Field goal +3
16	TB	TB 25	12	43	5:53	Field goal +3
17	TEN	TEN 25	5	23	0:47	Interception
18	TB	TEN 42	4	-3	1:18	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 32	5	22	1:24	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 46	4	1	1:40	Punt
21	TEN	TEN 20	7	14	1:10	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TEN 34	1	0	0:42	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Will Levis	19/39	199	0	1	4	-11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	11	24	2.2	0	-3.1
Tyjae Spears	5	18	3.6	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Philips	3	5	61	13%	4.2
Tyjae Spears	4	5	42	13%	2.5
DeAndre Hopkins	3	9	27	23%	-8.6
Chigoziem Okonkwo	3	6	27	15%	-0.6
Chris Moore	2	4	21	10%	-0.3
Josh Whyle	2	5	16	13%	0.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	4	9	10%	-1.2
Derrick Henry	1	1	-4	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Harold Landry	4	5	1.0	0	0
Elijah Molden	5	2	0.0	0	0
Amani Hooker	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	2	0.0	0	1
Teair Tart	2	1	1.0	0	0
Monty Rice	1	2	0.0	0	0
Roger McCreary	2	1	0.0	1	1
Eric Garror	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Peko	2	1	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	3	0	1.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	18/29	278	2	1	3	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	20	51	2.5	-7.1
Baker Mayfield	3	12	4.0	1.7
Chase Edmonds	4	9	2.3	0.3
Deven Thompkins	1	6	6.0	0.4
Kyle Trask	1	-1	-1.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	10	143	1	34%	10.3
Chris Godwin	4	6	54	0	21%	2.6
Rachaad White	2	3	47	1	10%	2.5
Trey Palmer	2	4	21	0	14%	-1.2
Cade Otton	2	3	10	0	10%	0.5
Deven Thompkins	1	2	5	0	7%	-1.6
Chase Edmonds	1	1	-2	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Antoine Winfield	3	3	0.0	1	1
Jamel Dean	1	4	0.0	0	1
Zyon McCollum	3	2	0.0	0	1
Lavonte David	2	2	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	2	1	1.0	0	0
Ryan Neal	2	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Devin White	1	1	1.0	0	1
Joe Tryon	2	0	0.0	0	0
YaYa Diaby	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -2.5
Closing total: 39.5
TEN moneyline: +120
TB moneyline: -142

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 26 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: TEN 10 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Todd Bowles