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2023 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 12, 2023 · Lumen Field

Washington Commanders

26

Seattle SeahawksWinner

29

SEA -6 no coverO 44 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 29–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:24, SEA +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 0:24WAS 26 — SEA 26SEA ball · 2nd & 10SEA 62%

(:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to WAS 25 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:24SEA +22% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to WAS 25 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).
  2. Q4 · 1:02SEA +18% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 9:56SEA +15% win prob(9:56) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 8:06SEA +14% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:36WAS Touchdown

    (13:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 6 — SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 8:48SEA Field goal

    (8:48) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: WAS 6 — SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 12:11WAS Field goal

    (12:11) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 9 — SEA 3
  4. Q2 · 9:16SEA Field goal

    (9:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: WAS 9 — SEA 6
  5. Q2 · 1:50SEA Field goal

    (1:50) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: WAS 9 — SEA 9
  6. Q3 · 10:37WAS Field goal

    (10:37) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 12 — SEA 9
  7. Q3 · 9:56SEA Touchdown

    (9:56) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 12 — SEA 16
  8. Q4 · 12:19SEA Field goal

    (12:19) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: WAS 12 — SEA 19
  9. Q4 · 8:06WAS Touchdown

    (8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 19 — SEA 19
  10. Q4 · 3:50SEA Touchdown

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 19 — SEA 26
  11. Q4 · 1:02WAS Touchdown

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 26 — SEA 26
  12. Q4 · 0:03SEA Field goal

    (:03) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: WAS 26 — SEA 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersSeahawks
Offensive plays6173
Total yards356489 (edge)
Yards per play5.86.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.10
Success rate41%47% (edge)
Dropback rate77%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.360.03 (edge)
Third downs7/15 (edge)4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1723 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

31/47, 369 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

29/44, 312 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.7 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

19 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

6 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

6/6 for 119 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

7/12 for 98 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 356651:34Touchdown +6
2SEASEA 2510494:43Field goal +3
3WASWAS 297173:07Punt
4SEASEA 157183:15Punt
5WASWAS 2810415:15Field goal +3
6SEASEA 2511512:54Field goal +3
7WASWAS 245-41:46Punt
8SEASEA 36451:08Punt
9WASWAS 19471:29Punt
10SEASEA 3110593:02Field goal +3
11WASWAS 25570:53Punt
12SEASEA 285430:54End of half
13SEASEA 25562:04Punt
14WASWAS 306412:24Field goal +3
15SEASEA 254750:49Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 253200:47Fumble
17SEASEA 484131:46Punt
18WASWAS 2010185:09Punt
19SEASEA 1911554:47Field goal +3
20WASWAS 2710734:14Touchdown +7
21SEASEA 2512654:13Touchdown +7
22WASWAS 2912712:55Touchdown +7
23SEASEA 258500:52Field goal +3

12 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 75 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Howell29/4431230311.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson8384.80-0.5
Sam Howell2178.50-3.5
Antonio Gibson4133.30-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Robinson66119114%8.7
Antonio Gibson5642114%1.8
Dyami Brown224115%6.1
Logan Thomas5540012%4.1
Terry McLaurin4833019%1.3
John Bates332107%1.8
Byron Pringle12705%-0.3
Curtis Samuel266014%-3.7
Alex Armah11302%-0.1
Jahan Dotson02005%-0.9
Jamison Crowder01002%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamin Davis550.000
Kamren Curl530.000
Percy Butler430.001
Benjamin St-Juste420.002
David Mayo420.000
Kendall Fuller510.000
Quan Martin220.000
Jonathan Allen401.000
Daron Payne130.000
Danny Johnson300.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith31/473692015.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker19633.30-2.4
Zach Charbonnet6447.303.2
Geno Smith11313.001.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf71298029%1.1
Tyler Lockett81092124%5.3
Kenneth Walker126415%4.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba4553012%3.6
Will Dissly222205%1.1
Zach Charbonnet4518012%-1.3
Jake Bobo221305%0.4
Noah Fant23607%-2.4
Colby Parkinson11302%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner440.502
Julian Love430.000
Tre Brown500.000
Boye Mafe411.001
Devon Witherspoon410.003
Jamal Adams410.000
Jordyn Brooks210.000
Tariq Woolen120.001
Derick Hall120.000
Jerrick Reed110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -6
Closing total
44
WAS moneyline
+220
SEA moneyline
-270

Seahawks closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 55 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
52°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
WAS 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Pete Carroll