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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Commanders183 of 198 plays carry both curves
(:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to WAS 25 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).
Swing +22.2 for SeahawksExpected points +1.30 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 4 points higher than the market did.play 194
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:24SEA +22% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to WAS 25 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).
4th · 1:02SEA +18% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:56SEA +15% win prob(9:56) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:06SEA +14% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:41SEA +13% win prob(4:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
4th · 0:03SEA +13% win prob(:03) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 43-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:36Brian Robinson·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell · kick no good, hit left upright+66–0
1st8:48Jason Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+36–3
2nd12:11Joey Slye·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+39–3
2nd9:16Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+39–6
2nd1:50Jason Myers·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+39–9
3rd10:37Joey Slye·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+312–9
4th1:02Dyami Brown·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+726–26
4th0:03Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+326–29
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categorySeahawks
Commanders1–7Seahawks
356Total yards489
5.8Yards per play6.7
41%Success rate47%
47%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays9
17First downs23
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Commanders: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.10Seahawks: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Commanders: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Commanders: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 61 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 73 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Seahawks 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 12.1% in week 9 against 31.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 13.0% in week 9 against 35.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Seahawks10.6%
right on their number · −4.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteSEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 38.3%, 11.7 points above their season mean of 26.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Howell pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:02 · Commanders · 3rd & 10 at SEA 35 · gained 35 · +4.75 EP · +22.9% win probability
182 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
845
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1474%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0277%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0550%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.6790%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0433%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.5140%
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Commanders6Seahawks0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 49
Commanders6Seahawks3
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Commanders 21
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Commanders 43
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 41
2nd quarter61 plays
Commanders9Seahawks3
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 31
Commanders9Seahawks6
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Commanders 24
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 26
Commanders9Seahawks9
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Commanders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
The period ended12 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Commanders 33
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Commanders12Seahawks9
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Seahawks 21
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Commanders12Seahawks15
Commanders12Seahawks16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 36
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Commanders 48
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Commanders 45
4th quarter59 plays
Commanders12Seahawks19
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Commanders18Seahawks19
Commanders19Seahawks19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Seahawks 19
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Commanders19Seahawks25
Commanders19Seahawks26
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Commanders 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Commanders25Seahawks26
Commanders26Seahawks26
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Seahawks 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Commanders26Seahawks29
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Commanders 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
