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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:38 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 11
It turned at Q4 0:35, 4th and 8, on Kyler Murray — 20.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 21–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:35, Texans +20.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:35 · 4th and 8
Kyler Murray
Texans
(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 10 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 7 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Devin Singletary's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 11:27 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Texans’s 66 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Texans 6.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 11.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
ARI's blitz rate sent turned over: 32.1% in week 10 against 9.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-5.7 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 58 snaps
Texans2.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 83%
Tendencies room →Cardinals56.8%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 44 early downs
Texans59.6%right on their number · +5.4 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals18.9%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Texans19.0%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals75.0%leaned — went for it · +27.1 vs their 47.9%, and they swing ±25.3 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Cardinals9.5%leaned — sat back · −10.3 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Texans27.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cardinals11.9%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Texans16.2%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 27.1 points above their season mean of 47.9% and 1.1 times their own 25.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
27/37, 336 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
3.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
20/30, 214 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.8 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tank Dell banked 8.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank DellWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.9 | +8.8 | 76% | 83% | 26% | 43% | 8/10, 149 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | 0.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 214 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.8 | +5.3 | 85% | 81% | 5% | 0% | 22 car, 112 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | −6.1 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 27/37, 336 yd, 2 TD, 3 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.6 | +1.6 | 75% | 76% | 28% | 14% | 6/8, 76 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.5 | −8.3 | 76% | 81% | 29% | 24% | 7/11, 65 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +7.5 | 72% | 70% | 3% | 17% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +4.0 | 85% | 88% | 8% | 9% | 2/3, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert WoodsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −6.7 | 75% | 81% | 21% | 22% | 5/8, 44 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver | 9.3 | −1.7 | 100% | 89% | 24% | 17% | 5/7, 43 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | −2.8 | 69% | 54% | 10% | 0% | 14 car, 62 yd · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.4 | 39% | 24% | 7% | 4% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −5.2 | 95% | 89% | 17% | 28% | 1 car, -6 yd · 2/5, 18 yd |
| Tony JonesRB | 3.1 | +1.0 | 26% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.5 | 22% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 1.5 | −0.6 | 13% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.7 | 15% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Davis MillsQB | 0.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | −0.3 | 31% | 24% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].
Q4 0:35 · Cardinals · 4th & 8 at HOU 27 · gained nothing · -2.26 EP · −19.1% win probability
147 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 75 yards from the ARI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals6
Texans0Cardinals7Texans0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Cardinals7Texans6Cardinals7Texans7Cardinals10Texans7Cardinals10Texans13Cardinals10Texans14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals10Texans20Cardinals10Texans21Cardinals16Texans21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/30 | 214 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 6 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 28% | −1.3 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 3% | +4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Woods | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 27/37 | 336 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3.8 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_11_ARI_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -5.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 37 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 24% | −0.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 17% | −3.2 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +1.1 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| James Conner | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Phil Hoskins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Dimukeje | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 22 | 112 | 5.1 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Dell | 8 | 10 | 149 | 1 | 26% | +10.5 |
| Nico Collins | 7 | 11 | 65 | 0 | 29% | −3.2 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 21% | −4.7 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 8% | +3.2 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 10 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Anderson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Hewitt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
