2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -5.5 no coverU 48 ✓DomeTexans closed -5.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Houston Texans 21–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:35, ARI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:35ARI 16 — HOU 21ARI ball · 4th & 8HOU 77%

(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:35ARI +21% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].
Q4 · 9:42ARI +16% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 2-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Barnes (33-A.Hamilton) at ARI 3. 51-K.Barnes to ARI 49 for 46 yards (77-G.Fant).
Q4 · 5:03ARI +12% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 3-N.Dell INTERCEPTED by 33-A.Hamilton at ARI 19. 33-A.Hamilton ran ob at ARI 19 for no gain. ARI-33-A.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Q4 · 12:54ARI +11% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to HOU 21 for 2 yards (4-T.Thomas; 24-D.Stingley).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:36ARI Touchdown
(13:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 4-R.Moore for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 7 — HOU 0
Q1 · 5:54HOU Touchdown
(5:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 7 — HOU 7
Q1 · 1:26ARI Field goal
(1:26) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — HOU 7
Q2 · 11:27HOU Touchdown
(11:27) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — HOU 14
Q2 · 0:34HOU Touchdown
(:34) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 3-N.Dell for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — HOU 21
Q3 · 2:57ARI Touchdown
(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 16 — HOU 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Texans
Offensive plays	59	66
Total yards	319	420 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	42%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	3/10	9/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

27/37, 336 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

3.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

20/30, 214 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.8 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

22 att, 112 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

14 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Tank DellWR

8/10 for 149 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

6/8 for 76 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	70	1:32	Touchdown +7
2	HOU	HOU 25	12	60	4:01	Turnover on downs
3	ARI	ARI 15	4	6	1:42	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 39	6	61	1:57	Touchdown +7
5	ARI	ARI 25	10	46	4:27	Field goal +3
6	HOU	HOU 25	12	75	5:01	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
8	HOU	HOU 25	10	63	5:02	Interception
9	ARI	ARI 20	7	3	3:55	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 26	7	74	1:49	Touchdown +7
11	ARI	ARI 27	4	19	0:26	End of half
12	HOU	HOU 25	11	45	5:45	Missed field goal
13	ARI	ARI 38	13	53	6:23	Touchdown +6
14	HOU	HOU 25	5	-8	1:32	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 32	8	47	3:32	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 22	4	9	2:11	Punt
17	HOU	ARI 25	4	12	1:07	Interception
18	ARI	ARI 49	4	16	2:12	Turnover on downs
19	HOU	HOU 45	5	29	2:20	Interception
20	ARI	ARI 19	10	59	4:28	Turnover on downs
21	HOU	HOU 27	1	0	0:30	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	20/30	214	1	1	3	-6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	14	62	4.4	0	0.1
Kyler Murray	7	51	7.3	1	4.8
Tony Jones	1	10	10.0	0	0.4
Rondale Moore	2	6	3.0	0	-0.6
Marquise Brown	1	-6	-6.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Greg Dortch	6	8	76	0	28%	-1.3
Rondale Moore	1	1	48	1	3%	4.0
Trey McBride	5	7	43	0	24%	-0.4
Marquise Brown	2	5	18	0	17%	-3.2
Geoff Swaim	2	2	15	0	7%	1.1
Tony Jones	1	1	11	0	3%	-0.3
Elijah Higgins	1	2	2	0	7%	-1.2
James Conner	2	3	1	0	10%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marco Wilson	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	6	0	1.0	1	1
Josh Woods	4	1	0.0	0	0
Antonio Hamilton	4	1	0.0	1	3
Phil Hoskins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Victor Dimukeje	4	0	0.0	0	0
Dante Stills	2	2	1.0	0	0
Budda Baker	3	1	0.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	2	1	0.0	1	2
Dennis Gardeck	3	0	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	27/37	336	2	3	3	3.8
Davis Mills	1/1	2	0	0	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	22	112	5.1	1	-0.5
Mike Boone	1	0	0.0	0	-3.4
Andrew Beck	1	0	0.0	0	-1.7
C.J. Stroud	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tank Dell	8	10	149	1	26%	10.5
Nico Collins	7	11	65	0	29%	-3.2
Robert Woods	5	8	44	0	21%	-4.7
Dalton Schultz	2	3	32	1	8%	3.2
Steven Sims	2	2	25	0	5%	1.8
John Metchie	1	1	12	0	3%	1.2
Devin Singletary	2	2	6	0	5%	-0.7
Mike Boone	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	10	6	1.0	0	1
Derek Stingley	3	3	0.0	1	2
Jalen Pitre	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Harris	5	0	0.0	0	2
DeAndre Houston-Carson	3	2	0.0	0	1
Tavierre Thomas	2	2	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	1	2	0.0	0	1
Will Anderson	2	0	1.0	0	0
Neville Hewitt	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -5.5
Closing total: 48
ARI moneyline: +205
HOU moneyline: -250

Texans closed -5.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 37 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: ARI 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs DeMeco Ryans