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Detroit Lions 31, Bears 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:48, 2nd and 21, on D.J. Moore — 22.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:48 · 2nd and 21
D.J. Moore
Bears
(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -8, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Detroit Lions 31–26. Biggest swing: Q3 4:48, Bears +22.8% win probability on one snap.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jahmyr GibbsLionsQ4 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to CHI 1 for 6 yards (4-E.Jackson).
16.9pts
Justin FieldsLionsQ4 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 15 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], touched at CHI 15, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
14.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Lions won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 5 of 13 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.8 for LionsExpected points −4.72 for LionsThe model had Bears 16 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:48DET +23% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:38DET +17% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to CHI 1 for 6 yards (4-E.Jackson).
4th · 0:29CHI +14% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 15 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], touched at CHI 15, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
3rd · 6:41CHI +13% win prob8-C.Santos kicks 62 yards from CHI 35 to DET 3. 13-C.Reynolds to DET 34 for 31 yards (29-T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (29-T.Stevenson), RECOVERED by CHI-43-D.Gates at DET 40. DET-13-C.Reynolds was injured during the play.
3rd · 2:33CHI +13% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 8-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (99-G.Dexter) at CHI 47. 49-T.Edmunds to DET 43 for 10 yards (11-K.Raymond).
1st · 6:21CHI +13% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson [94-R.Green] at CHI 32. 29-T.Stevenson to CHI 37 for 5 yards (89-B.Wright, 87-S.LaPorta).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:31 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th14:15Cairo Santos·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+323–14
4th4:20Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+326–14
4th3:06Jameson Williams·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+726–21
4th0:31David Montgomery·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+826–29
4th0:29Lions·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+226–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryLions
Bears2–6Lions
335Total yards341
4.8Yards per play5.8
47%Success rate56%
38%Third-down rate73%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays5
21First downs23
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers4
The read
Lions ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bears: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Bears: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.03Lions: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.28Lions: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 70 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Lions’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 38.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 8.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 40.8% in week 6.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, −12.9 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's play-action rate, 34.5%, is past their previous high of 32.4% in week 10 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions13.8%
right on their number · −3.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.5%, 11.2 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 1.5 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:48 · Bears · 2nd & 21 at DET 39 · gained 39 · +4.72 EP · +18.0% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.4269%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0242%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1627%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0431%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2620%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.9920%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bears6Lions0
Bears7Lions0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 45
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Lions 38
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne inside linebacker, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Bears 35
Fumble lost3 plays
Bears7Lions6
Bears7Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 2
Bears10Lions7
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 13
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bears10Lions13
Bears10Lions14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 47
Bears13Lions14
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Lions 35
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Bears19Lions14
Bears20Lions14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 28
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Lions 25
4th quarter56 plays
Bears23Lions14
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays
Bears26Lions14
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Lions 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bears26Lions20
Bears26Lions21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 32
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears26Lions27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne inside linebacker, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears26Lions29
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Bears 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Bears26Lions31
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
