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2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Ford Field

Chicago Bears

26

Detroit LionsWinner

31

DET -8 no coverO 48 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 31–26. Biggest swing: Q3 4:48, DET +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑CHI ↓
Q3 · 4:48CHI 19 — DET 14CHI ball · 2nd & 21DET 65%

(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:48DET +23% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:38DET +17% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to CHI 1 for 6 yards (4-E.Jackson).
  3. Q4 · 0:29CHI +14% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 15 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], touched at CHI 15, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
  4. Q3 · 6:41CHI +13% win prob8-C.Santos kicks 62 yards from CHI 35 to DET 3. 13-C.Reynolds to DET 34 for 31 yards (29-T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (29-T.Stevenson), RECOVERED by CHI-43-D.Gates at DET 40. DET-13-C.Reynolds was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:26CHI Touchdown

    (9:26) (Shotgun) 21-D.Foreman right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — DET 0
  2. Q2 · 9:28DET Touchdown

    (9:28) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — DET 7
  3. Q2 · 1:51CHI Field goal

    (1:51) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 0:16DET Touchdown

    (:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 14
  5. Q3 · 6:46CHI Field goal

    (6:46) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — DET 14
  6. Q3 · 4:48CHI Touchdown

    (4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 20 — DET 14
  7. Q4 · 14:15CHI Field goal

    (14:15) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 23 — DET 14
  8. Q4 · 4:20CHI Field goal

    (4:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 26 — DET 14
  9. Q4 · 3:06DET Touchdown

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 26 — DET 21
  10. Q4 · 0:31DET Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CHI 26 — DET 29
  11. Q4 · 0:29DET Safety

    (:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 15 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], touched at CHI 15, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

    Score after this play: CHI 26 — DET 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsLions
Offensive plays7059
Total yards335341 (edge)
Yards per play4.85.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.020.07 (edge)
Success rate47%56% (edge)
Dropback rate41%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.110.28 (edge)
Third downs5/138/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2123 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers1 (edge)4

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/35, 236 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

16/23, 169 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.2 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

18 att, 104 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

12 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

7/9 for 96 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/11 for 77 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 2512755:37Touchdown +7
2DETDET 258303:09Interception
3CHICHI 3710195:05Punt
4DETDET 204111:39Interception
5CHICHI 37221:12Fumble
6DETCHI 349343:55Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 2516627:36Field goal +3
8DETDET 2512751:36Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 25200:11End of half
10DETDET 256231:58Punt
11CHICHI 1510556:21Field goal +3
12DET—100:09Fumble
13CHIDET 404511:51Touchdown +7
14DETDET 256212:16Interception
15CHIDET 437203:13Field goal +3
16DETDET 255-31:12Punt
17CHICHI 914608:45Field goal +3
18DETDET 258751:16Touchdown +7
19CHICHI 25510:26Punt
20DETDET 2712752:04Touchdown +8
21CHICHI 252-100:07Safety
22DETCHI 41200:22End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields16/231691024.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields181045.803.9
Khalil Herbert16352.20-5.0
Roschon Johnson6305.002.1
D'Onta Foreman6142.31-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore7996141%10.8
Darnell Mooney112405%1.5
Cole Kmet3420018%-1.4
Equanimeous St. Brown221909%1.0
Khalil Herbert236014%-0.6
Tyler Scott12409%-5.2
Marcedes Lewis01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards440.011
Kyler Gordon520.000
Jaquan Brisker510.000
Tremaine Edmunds330.011
Eddie Jackson400.000
Jack Sanborn121.000
Tyrique Stevenson210.011
Justin Jones210.000
Montez Sweat111.000
Jaylon Johnson200.001

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/35236232-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery12766.312.8
Jahmyr Gibbs8364.512.8
Jared Goff231.50-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown81177134%9.0
Jahmyr Gibbs6659019%3.2
Jameson Williams234419%3.8
David Montgomery222206%1.1
Sam LaPorta3518016%-3.9
Josh Reynolds121106%-2.7
Kalif Raymond12506%-1.1
Donovan Peoples-Jones01003%-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone1040.000
Jack Campbell540.000
Derrick Barnes620.000
Aidan Hutchinson241.000
Brian Branch420.001
Jerry Jacobs220.000
Josh Paschal130.000
Cameron Sutton310.000
Tracy Walker III310.000
Kerby Joseph210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -8
Closing total
48
CHI moneyline
+340
DET moneyline
-440

Lions closed -8, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 57 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
CHI 10 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.