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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 16, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati20
BY 14final margin
RavensBaltimore34
Cincinnati Bengals 20 at Baltimore Ravens 34. Final.
Ravens -4 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
Baltimore Ravens 34, Bengals 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:29, 3rd and 6, on Nelson Agholor — 15.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:29 · 3rd and 6
Nelson Agholor
Ravens
(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.
Baltimore Ravens 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 2:29, Ravens +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan McPhersonRavensQ2 15:00(15:00) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
9.5pts
Odell BeckhamRavensQ2 4:32(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to CIN 41 for 29 yards (27-J.Battle).
11.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 2 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 6 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals166 of 172 plays carry both curves
(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Swing +15.3 for RavensExpected points +5.34 for RavensThe model had Bengals 3 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:29BAL +15% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
2nd · 4:32BAL +11% win prob(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to CIN 41 for 29 yards (27-J.Battle).
2nd · 15:00CIN +9% win prob(15:00) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
1st · 2:47CIN +7% win prob(2:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to CIN 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 27 for 20 yards (88-C.Kolar). PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 27.
2nd · 8:33BAL +7% win prob(8:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 20 for 13 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
2nd · 5:53BAL +7% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nelson Agholor's 37-yard touchdown catch with 2:29 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Bengals: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Bengals: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.26Ravens: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 59 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Ravens’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 34.1% in week 10 against 12.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens17.1%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteCIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.1%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 24.6% and 1.2 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q2 2:29 · Ravens · 3rd & 6 at CIN 37 · gained 37 · +5.34 EP · +13.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 82 yards from the CIN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
677
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0262%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2575%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3314%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2830%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Bengals0Ravens6
Bengals0Ravens7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 3
Bengals3Ravens7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 31
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 26
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Ravens 34
2nd quarter54 plays
No good1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Bengals 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals9Ravens7
Bengals10Ravens7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Ravens 4
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bengals10Ravens13
Bengals10Ravens14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 37
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 48
Bengals10Ravens20
Bengals10Ravens21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bengals 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Bengals13Ravens21
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 8
Bengals13Ravens24
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 7
Punt6 plays
Bengals13Ravens27
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Bengals 29
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bengals 44
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 25
Bengals13Ravens33
Bengals13Ravens34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Bengals 3
Bengals19Ravens34
Bengals20Ravens34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -4
Closing total
46.5
Bengals moneyline
+170
Ravens moneyline
-205
Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 54 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bengals 4 days · Ravens 4 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 11:26BAL +6% win prob(11:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Irwin [24-J.Clowney]. PENALTY on BAL-23-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 47 - No Play.
1st · 13:38BAL +6% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at CIN 27 for 33 yards (23-D.Hill).
