2023 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 16, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -4 ✓O 46.5 ✓Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.

Baltimore Ravens 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 2:29, BAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:29CIN 10 — BAL 13BAL ball · 3rd & 6BAL 52%

(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:29BAL +15% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q2 · 4:32BAL +11% win prob(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to CIN 41 for 29 yards (27-J.Battle).
Q2 · 15:00CIN +9% win prob(15:00) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Q1 · 2:47CIN +7% win prob(2:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to CIN 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 27 for 20 yards (88-C.Kolar). PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 27.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:06BAL Touchdown
(10:06) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — BAL 7
Q1 · 7:37CIN Field goal
(7:37) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — BAL 7
Q2 · 5:53CIN Touchdown
(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — BAL 7
Q2 · 2:29BAL Touchdown
(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — BAL 14
Q2 · 0:28BAL Touchdown
(:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — BAL 21
Q3 · 9:59CIN Field goal
(9:59) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 13 — BAL 21
Q3 · 4:05BAL Field goal
(4:05) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CIN 13 — BAL 24
Q3 · 0:30BAL Field goal
(:30) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CIN 13 — BAL 27
Q4 · 4:52BAL Touchdown
(4:52) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 13 — BAL 34
Q4 · 1:12CIN Touchdown
(1:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 20 — BAL 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Ravens
Offensive plays	59	60
Total yards	272	405 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	0.07
Third downs	2/11	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/26, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

11/17, 101 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.9 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

16 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

12 att, 62 yds, 2 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Odell BeckhamWR

4/7 for 116 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tanner HudsonTE

4/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	11	75	4:58	Touchdown +7
2	CIN	CIN 25	8	29	2:30	Field goal +3
3	BAL	BAL 25	5	-13	1:47	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 38	4	-7	1:35	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 31	4	6	1:36	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 42	7	23	2:39	Missed field goal
7	BAL	BAL 43	5	3	1:44	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 18	13	92	7:22	Touchdown +7
9	BAL	BAL 25	9	85	3:29	Touchdown +7
10	CIN	CIN 25	7	22	0:50	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 20	8	49	1:07	Touchdown +7
12	CIN	CIN 25	2	2	0:23	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	11	38	5:04	Field goal +3
14	BAL	BAL 25	11	68	5:54	Field goal +3
15	CIN	CIN 25	5	-2	1:51	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 44	5	27	1:45	Field goal +3
17	CIN	CIN 25	5	2	1:20	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 35	7	28	3:33	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 20	4	3	2:08	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 32	7	73	3:36	Touchdown +7
21	CIN	CIN 25	10	70	3:41	Touchdown +7
22	BAL	CIN 42	3	4	1:08	End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	11/17	101	1	0	2	2.9
Jake Browning	8/14	68	1	0	3	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	16	69	4.3	1.2
Jake Browning	4	40	10.0	3.9
Trayveon Williams	2	20	10.0	0.1
Joe Burrow	1	7	7.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tanner Hudson	4	4	49	0	13%	4.3
Trenton Irwin	3	5	36	0	16%	0.6
Joe Mixon	5	5	31	1	16%	3.6
Tyler Boyd	3	6	22	0	19%	-1.6
Drew Sample	2	2	19	0	6%	1.3
Ja'Marr Chase	2	7	12	1	23%	-1.9
Shedrick Jackson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Irv Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Battle	9	2	0.0	0
Logan Wilson	4	3	0.0	0
Dax Hill	5	1	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	4	1	1.0	0
Cam Sample	2	1	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	0	0.0	1
Germaine Pratt	2	1	0.0	0
Myles Murphy	2	0	0.0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	0	1.0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	1	0	0.0	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16/26	264	2	0	3	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	12	62	5.2	2	2.4
Lamar Jackson	9	54	6.0	0	0.7
Keaton Mitchell	8	33	4.1	0	-1.1
Zay Flowers	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Justice Hill	1	1	1.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	4	7	116	0	30%	6.2
Zay Flowers	3	4	43	0	17%	0.3
Nelson Agholor	1	1	37	1	4%	5.3
Mark Andrews	2	2	23	0	9%	1.8
Charlie Kolar	1	1	13	0	4%	0.8
Rashod Bateman	1	2	10	1	9%	3.6
Gus Edwards	2	2	8	0	9%	-0.3
Keaton Mitchell	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
Justice Hill	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.0
Isaiah Likely	0	2	0	0	9%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Queen	8	2	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	3	6	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	4	2	0.0	2
Geno Stone	1	2	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	3	0	1.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	1	2	0.0	2
Tavius Robinson	2	1	1.0	0
Brent Urban	3	0	0.0	0
Malik Harrison	2	0	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4
Closing total: 46.5
CIN moneyline: +170
BAL moneyline: -205

Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 54 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CIN 4 days · BAL 4 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.