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2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas33
BY 23final margin
PanthersCarolina10
Dallas Cowboys 33 at Carolina Panthers 10. Final.
Cowboys -11 ✓43 push
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
Dallas Cowboys 33, Panthers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:47, 1st and 10, on Chuba Hubbard — 5.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:47 · 1st and 10
Chuba Hubbard
Panthers
(11:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 38 for 13 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Cowboys closed -11 and covered, winning by 23.
Dallas Cowboys 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:47, Panthers +5.7% win probability on one snap.
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bryce YoungCowboysQ1 9:05(9:05) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DAL 46 for -9 yards (11-M.Parsons).
5.6pts
Luke SchoonmakerCowboysQ1 3:25(3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Cowboys162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(11:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 38 for 13 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Swing +5.7 for PanthersExpected points +0.81 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 41 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:47CAR +6% win prob(11:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 38 for 13 yards (28-M.Hooker).
1st · 9:05DAL +6% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DAL 46 for -9 yards (11-M.Parsons).
1st · 3:25CAR +5% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:24DAL +4% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for no gain (49-F.Luvu).
1st · 5:11CAR +4% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Tolbert to CAR 40 for 7 yards (26-D.Jackson).
1st · 5:49DAL +4% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle to CAR 47 for -1 yards (13-T.Hill).
1st · 10:37
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Luke Schoonmaker's 18-yard touchdown catch with 3:25 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:25Luke Schoonmaker·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+77–0
2nd11:05Brandon Aubrey·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+310–0
2nd2:00Eddy Pineiro·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+310–3
2nd0:29CeeDee Lamb·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+717–3
4th13:58Daron Bland·30-yd defence TD30-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+630–10
4th7:21Brandon Aubrey·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+333–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryPanthers
Cowboys9–0Panthers
314Total yards188
4.8Yards per play3.2
45%Success rate36%
47%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
18First downs13
0Sacks taken7
0Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Cowboys: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.51Panthers: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Cowboys: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Panthers’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Panthers 2.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 11 — 16.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 66.7% in week 4.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 10.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.1 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 27.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 41.3% in week 10 against 16.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +11.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.79× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Panthers9.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 47.1 points above their season mean of 52.9% and 2.1 times their own 22.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 84-S.Sullivan pushed ob at DAL 27 for 20 yards (1-J.Kearse).
Q2 4:14 · Panthers · 3rd & 6 at DAL 47 · gained 20 · +2.24 EP · +8.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 83 yards from the DAL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
498
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.5073%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0870%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1457%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1723%
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+1.2880%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Cowboys 37
Cowboys6Panthers0
Cowboys7Panthers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Panthers 18
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 25
2nd quarter52 plays
Cowboys10Panthers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Panthers 11
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 30
Cowboys10Panthers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Cowboys 13
Cowboys16Panthers3
Cowboys17Panthers3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Panthers 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 37
Cowboys17Panthers9
Cowboys17Panthers10
Touchdown20 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 40
4th quarter40 plays
Cowboys23Panthers10
Cowboys24Panthers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 21
Cowboys30Panthers10
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 41
Cowboys33Panthers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 30
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
