For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Los Angeles Chargers

20

Green Bay PackersWinner

23

LAC -3 upsetU 44 ✓

Green Bay Packers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:54, LAC +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 12:54LAC 13 — GB 16LAC ball · 2nd & 2LAC 66%

(12:54) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 3 for -1 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), touched at GB 3, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 6.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 12:54LAC +27% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 3 for -1 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), touched at GB 3, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 6.
  2. Q4 · 2:38GB +22% win prob(2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 3:47GB +20% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to LAC 26 for 35 yards (6-E.Kendricks).
  4. Q2 · 12:25GB +20% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 84-S.Smartt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:24LAC Field goal

    (1:24) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — GB 0
  2. Q2 · 15:00GB Touchdown

    (15:00) 11-J.Reed right end for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 12:25LAC Touchdown

    (12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 84-S.Smartt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 10 — GB 7
  4. Q2 · 0:11GB Field goal

    (:11) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: LAC 10 — GB 10
  5. Q3 · 10:47LAC Field goal

    (10:47) 11-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 13 — GB 10
  6. Q3 · 0:08GB Touchdown

    (:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LAC 13 — GB 16
  7. Q4 · 5:29LAC Touchdown

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — GB 16
  8. Q4 · 2:38GB Touchdown

    (2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — GB 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersPackers
Offensive plays6170
Total yards395398 (edge)
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.070.09 (edge)
Success rate41%44% (edge)
Dropback rate72%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.43-0.16 (edge)
Third downs7/147/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps1621 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers10 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

27/40, 322 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/36, 260 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.1 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

8 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

10 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

10/16 for 116 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Dontayvion WicksWR

3/5 for 91 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 88413:57Turnover on downs
2LACGB 49461:27Turnover on downs
3GBGB 43431:36Punt
4LACLAC 1412796:38Field goal +3
5GBGB 318691:29Touchdown +7
6LACLAC 258752:37Touchdown +7
7GBGB 1711455:00Missed field goal
8LACLAC 42451:25Punt
9GBGB 1916765:44Field goal +3
10LACLAC 23200:07End of half
11LACLAC 2211714:16Field goal +3
12GBGB 2512266:37Punt
13LACLAC 10491:42Punt
14GBGB 306702:21Touchdown +6
15LACLAC 256722:20Fumble
16GBGB 67111:44Punt
17LACLAC 3712785:36Touchdown +7
18GBGB 258512:51Touchdown +7
19LACLAC 255-100:46Punt
20GBGB 41460:20Punt
21LACLAC 206101:08Turnover on downs
22GBLAC 35100:19End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert21/362602025.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert8739.105.9
Austin Ekeler10646.40-4.4
Joshua Kelley6132.20-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen1016116144%4.1
Donald Parham4657017%3.1
Stone Smartt135118%3.3
Quentin Johnston2621017%-1.9
Alex Erickson111203%1.9
Austin Ekeler23608%-1.2
Derius Davis11-303%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kenneth Murray540.000
Eric Kendricks630.000
Khalil Mack802.001
Derwin James520.000
Alohi Gilman430.000
Dean Marlowe400.000
Nicholas Williams120.000
Ja'Sir Taylor300.001
Deane Leonard300.000
Tuli Tuipulotu300.001

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love27/4032220310.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Reed34615.312.3
A.J. Dillon14292.10-4.4
Aaron Jones4143.500.1
Emanuel Wilson3124.000.1
Christian Watson111.00-0.6
Jordan Love300.00-4.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dontayvion Wicks3591013%5.7
Romeo Doubs5653116%5.5
Jayden Reed4646016%2.5
A.J. Dillon4432011%1.9
Tucker Kraft223205%2.1
Luke Musgrave4628016%-1.2
Christian Watson2421111%1.9
Emanuel Wilson12905%0.4
Malik Heath11703%0.3
Aaron Jones12305%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jonathan Owens440.000
Quay Walker250.000
Keisean Nixon610.000
De'Vondre Campbell410.000
Corey Ballentine310.001
Carrington Valentine210.003
Anthony Johnson210.000
Malik Heath200.000
Preston Smith110.000
Lukas Van Ness200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
44
LAC moneyline
-162
GB moneyline
+136

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 43 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
LAC 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Matt LaFleur