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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Green Bay Packers 23. Final.
Chargers -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
Green Bay Packers 23, Chargers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 12:54, 2nd and 2, on Austin Ekeler — 27.1 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:54 · 2nd and 2
Austin Ekeler
Packers
(12:54) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 3 for -1 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), touched at GB 3, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 6.
U 44 ✓
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:54, Packers +27.1% win probability on one snap.
27.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dontayvion WicksPackersQ4 3:47(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to LAC 26 for 35 yards (6-E.Kendricks).
20.1pts
Romeo DoubsPackersQ4 2:38(2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Chargers168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(12:54) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 3 for -1 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), touched at GB 3, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 6.
Swing +27.1 for PackersExpected points +5.97 for PackersThe model had Packers 9 points higher than the market did.play 126
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:54LAC +27% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 3 for -1 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), touched at GB 3, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 6.
4th · 2:38GB +22% win prob(2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:47GB +20% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to LAC 26 for 35 yards (6-E.Kendricks).
2nd · 12:25GB +20% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 84-S.Smartt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:29GB +18% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00GB +12% win prob(15:00) 11-J.Reed right end for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Romeo Doubs's 24-yard touchdown catch with 2:38 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st1:24Cameron Dicker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–0
4th2:38Romeo Doubs·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+720–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryPackers
Chargers2–4Packers
395Total yards398
6.5Yards per play5.7
41%Success rate44%
50%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays8
16First downs21
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Chargers: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Chargers: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.43Chargers: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.16Packers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 61 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Packers’s 70 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
LAC's blitz rate sent, 47.7%, is past their previous high of 42.4% in week 10 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 4.9% in week 10 against 22.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Packers11.4%
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 47.7%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 29.8% and 1.7 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Ekeler up−30% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:54) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 3 for -1 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), touched at GB 3, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 6.
Q4 12:54 · Chargers · 2nd & goal at GB 2 · lost 1 · -5.97 EP · −29.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 79 yards from the LAC 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
791
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1467%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0870%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0845%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1645%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Chargers 49
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Packers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Packers 46
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers3Packers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Packers 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 48
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers3Packers6
Chargers3Packers7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chargers9Packers7
Chargers10Packers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 49
No good12 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Chargers 23
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 47
Chargers10Packers10
Field goal20 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Chargers 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chargers13Packers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Packers 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chargers13Packers16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Chargers 11
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter58 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Packers 2
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Packers 17
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chargers19Packers16
Chargers20Packers16
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Packers 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chargers20Packers22
Chargers20Packers23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Chargers 24
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 41 to the Packers 47
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
