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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 11
It turned at Q3 8:22, 1st and 10, on Jalen Ramsey — 11.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 8:22, Dolphins +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:22 · 1st and 10
Jalen Ramsey
Dolphins
(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Raiders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Raiders at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 3 giveaways, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Salvon Ahmed's 11-yard touchdown catch with 2:33 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Salvon Ahmed11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+710–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Dolphins 3.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 7.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
LV's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
LV's blitz rate sent, 12.2%, is past their previous low of 17.4% in week 10 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.4 pts in week 10 against +2.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 59 snaps
Dolphins6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 82%
Tendencies room →Raiders69.8%leaned — passed early · +15.2 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 43 early downs
Dolphins52.7%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Raiders20.9%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Dolphins34.1%leaned — faked the run · +9.2 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Raiders33.3%right on their number · +7.4 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins33.3%inside their normal wobble · −21.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±30.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Raiders12.2%leaned — sat back · −10.0 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Dolphins7.0%off script — sat back · −21.3 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−2.27× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Raiders7.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Dolphins14.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
MIA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 7.0%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 28.3% and 2.3 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
28/39, 325 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.8 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
Passing · LV
24/41, 271 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-9.6 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyreek Hill banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.6 | +8.4 | 59% | 71% | 31% | 42% | 10/11, 146 yd, 1 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.2 | +1.4 | 98% | 100% | 34% | 46% | 7/13, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/39, 325 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 12.1 | +5.5 | 29% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 3 car, 6 yd · 3/3, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.3 | −4.6 | 79% | 71% | 6% | 0% | 22 car, 86 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −3.7 | 83% | 88% | 22% | 31% | 4/8, 55 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.4 | 44% | 47% | 13% | 4% | 5/5, 42 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB · Starter QB | 9.1 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/41, 271 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.2 | 82% | 86% | 13% | 15% | 4/5, 49 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +1.5 | 80% | 86% | 13% | 4% | 4/5, 46 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.1 | −1.3 | 77% | 67% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 39 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +3.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.9 | 64% | 59% | 11% | 15% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −7.2 | 39% | 40% | 18% | 27% | 1 car, -6 yd · 2/7, 36 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB · Receiving Back | 4.6 | −2.4 | 49% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 3/4, 16 yd |
| Devon AchaneRB | 1.5 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 1.4 | 0.0 | 23% | 33% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jesper HorstedTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 48% | 37% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| D.J. TurnerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 67% | 59% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:08 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at MIA 46 · gained 46 · +4.22 EP · +14.5% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 75 yards from the MIA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Raiders3
Dolphins0Raiders3Dolphins6Raiders3Dolphins7How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Raiders9Dolphins7Raiders10Dolphins7How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Raiders10Dolphins13Raiders10Dolphins14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders13Dolphins14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Raiders13Dolphins17Raiders13Dolphins20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 24/41 | 271 | 1 | 3 | 2 | −9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tre Tucker |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 82 | 1 | 34% | +0.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Moehrig | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Hobbs |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/39 | 325 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_11_LV_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -6 |
| -6.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.4 |
| +0.7 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 18% | −8.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Peters | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Masterson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Devon Achane | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 11 | 146 | 1 | 31% | +8.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 22% | −1.3 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 8% | +2.8 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −1.9 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | −3.8 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Devon Achane | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavien Howard | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerome Baker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
