For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

13

Miami DolphinsWinner

20

MIA -14 no coverU 44.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 8:22, LV +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑LV ↓
Q3 · 8:22LV 13 — MIA 14LV ball · 1st & 10MIA 72%

(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 8:22LV +11% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).
  2. Q1 · 0:08MIA +10% win prob(:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 8:27LV +10% win prob(8:27) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  4. Q2 · 9:13LV +9% win prob(9:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to LV 7 for -4 yards (39-N.Hobbs, 20-I.Pola-Mao).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:46LV Field goal

    (6:46) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — MIA 0
  2. Q1 · 2:10MIA Touchdown

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 3 — MIA 7
  3. Q1 · 0:08LV Touchdown

    (:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — MIA 7
  4. Q2 · 2:33MIA Touchdown

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 26-S.Ahmed for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — MIA 14
  5. Q2 · 0:09LV Field goal

    (:09) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — MIA 14
  6. Q3 · 5:29MIA Field goal

    (5:29) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — MIA 17
  7. Q3 · 0:30MIA Field goal

    (:30) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — MIA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersDolphins
Offensive plays5967
Total yards296423 (edge)
Yards per play5.06.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.25-0.10 (edge)
Success rate36%37% (edge)
Dropback rate73%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.22-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.34-0.15 (edge)
Third downs4/144/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1221 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers43 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

28/39, 325 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.8 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

24/41, 271 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

22 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

14 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

10/11 for 146 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

7/13 for 82 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 256212:54Defensive touchdown
2MIAMIA 143131:08Fumble
3LVMIA 307244:17Field goal +3
4MIAMIA 2510704:38Touchdown +7
5LVLV 256752:02Touchdown +7
6MIAMIA 2513625:53Turnover on downs
7LVLV 7431:37Punt
8MIAMIA 3710635:03Touchdown +7
9LVLV 25571:19Punt
10MIAMIA 122200:11Fumble
11LVMIA 32430:53Field goal +3
12MIAMIA 252300:05End of half
13MIAMIA 25200:08Interception
14LVLV 32482:15Punt
15MIAMIA 218484:15Missed field goal
16LVLV 40100:09Interception
17MIAMIA 477302:47Field goal +3
18LVLV 25591:34Punt
19MIAMIA 158523:27Field goal +3
20LVLV 258103:26Punt
21MIAMIA 10461:04Punt
22LV506192:29Turnover on downs
23MIAMIA 314122:05Punt
24LVLV 138633:17Interception
25MIAMIA 386171:06Punt
26LVLV 79541:33Interception
27MIAMIA 20100:25End of game

7 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell24/41271132-9.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs14392.80-4.0
Aidan O'Connell133.00-0.0
Tre Tucker1-6-6.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams71382134%0.5
Jakobi Meyers4549013%0.7
Michael Mayer4546013%3.2
Hunter Renfrow5542013%1.5
Tre Tucker2736018%-8.2
Josh Jacobs111203%1.3
Ameer Abdullah11403%-0.2
Austin Hooper01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Trevon Moehrig630.000
Robert Spillane270.001
Nate Hobbs520.001
Isaiah Pola-Mao330.011
Marcus Peters420.000
Maxx Crosby231.001
Divine Deablo140.000
John Jenkins130.000
Luke Masterson210.000
Ameer Abdullah100.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa28/393252114.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert22863.90-3.7
Tua Tagovailoa263.00-3.8
Salvon Ahmed362.000.3
Devon Achane111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill1011146131%8.4
Jaylen Waddle4855022%-1.3
Robbie Chosen223906%0.8
Salvon Ahmed332518%2.8
Cedrick Wilson3423011%-0.3
Alec Ingold3416011%-1.9
Julian Hill111003%-3.8
Raheem Mostert12706%-1.1
Devon Achane11403%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavien Howard620.001
Jerome Baker510.000
Andrew Van Ginkel320.002
Jaelan Phillips412.011
Jevon Holland410.000
Bradley Chubb320.000
Kader Kohou300.001
Zach Sieler110.001
Jaylen Waddle100.000
Christian Wilkins100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -14
Closing total
44.5
LV moneyline
+700
MIA moneyline
-1100

Dolphins closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
82°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
LV 7 days · MIA 14 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Mike McDaniel