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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas13
BY 7final margin
DolphinsMiami20
Las Vegas Raiders 13 at Miami Dolphins 20. Final.
Dolphins -14 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
Miami Dolphins 20, Raiders 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:22, 1st and 10, on Jalen Ramsey — 11.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:22 · 1st and 10
Jalen Ramsey
Dolphins
(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).
Dolphins closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Miami Dolphins 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 8:22, Dolphins +11.3% win probability on one snap.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsRaidersQ1 0:08(:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.5pts
Jason SandersRaidersQ3 8:27(8:27) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
9.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Raiders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Raiders at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 3 giveaways, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.34 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Raiders162 of 171 plays carry both curves
(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).
Swing +11.3 for DolphinsExpected points +4.69 for DolphinsThe model had Raiders 19 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:22LV +11% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA 44. 5-J.Ramsey to MIA 47 for 3 yards (11-T.Tucker).
1st · 0:08MIA +10% win prob(:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:27LV +10% win prob(8:27) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
2nd · 9:13LV +9% win prob(9:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to LV 7 for -4 yards (39-N.Hobbs, 20-I.Pola-Mao).
1st · 11:04LV +9% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to MIA 27 for 7 yards (59-L.Masterson). Las Vegas challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to MIA 27 for 7 yards (59-L.Masterson). FUMBLES (59-L.Masterson), RECOVERED by LV-1-M.Epps at MIA 30.
2nd · 2:33MIA +8% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 26-S.Ahmed for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Salvon Ahmed's 11-yard touchdown catch with 2:33 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:46Daniel Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
1st2:10Tyreek Hill·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+73–7
2nd2:33Salvon Ahmed·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+710–14
2nd0:09Daniel Carlson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+313–14
3rd5:29Jason Sanders·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+313–17
3rd0:30Jason Sanders·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryDolphins
Raiders0–9Dolphins
296Total yards423
5.0Yards per play6.3
36%Success rate37%
29%Third-down rate36%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
12First downs21
2Sacks taken1
4Turnovers3
The read
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Raiders: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.10Dolphins: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Raiders: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.08Dolphins: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Raiders: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.15Dolphins: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Dolphins 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's blitz rate sent, 7.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 15.6% in week 8.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 10.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.4 pts in week 10 against +2.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Dolphins14.0%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteMIA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 7.0%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 28.3% and 2.3 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:08 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at MIA 46 · gained 46 · +4.22 EP · +14.5% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 75 yards from the MIA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
35%
Yards
718
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3877%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR38-0.0945%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.1777%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2464%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 20
Raiders3Dolphins0
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 15
Raiders3Dolphins6
Raiders3Dolphins7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 38
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders9Dolphins7
Raiders10Dolphins7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 46
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Raiders 3
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Raiders 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Raiders10Dolphins13
Raiders10Dolphins14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Raiders 9
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Dolphins 22
Raiders13Dolphins14
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 41
No good8 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Raiders 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Raiders13Dolphins17
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Raiders 23
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Raiders13Dolphins20
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Raiders 33
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 43
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 16
Turnover on downs6 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 31
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Dolphins 36
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Dolphins 24
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Raiders 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Dolphins 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -14
Closing total
44.5
Raiders moneyline
+700
Dolphins moneyline
-1100
Dolphins closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Dolphins 14 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Mike McDaniel
1st · 2:10MIA +8% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:03LV +7% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 89-J.Hill to MIA 32 for 10 yards (5-D.Deablo, 39-N.Hobbs). FUMBLES (39-N.Hobbs), RECOVERED by LV-5-D.Deablo at MIA 32.
