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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 11
It turned at Q4 12:37, 1st and 20, on Ja'Quan McMillian — 26.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:37 · 1st and 20
Ja'Quan McMillian
Broncos
(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 4-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian [47-J.Jewell] at MIN 18. 29-J.McMillian to MIN 9 for 9 yards (32-T.Chandler).
Denver Broncos 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:37, Broncos +26.7% win probability on one snap.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 2 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 12 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 4-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian [47-J.Jewell] at MIN 18. 29-J.McMillian to MIN 9 for 9 yards (32-T.Chandler).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Courtland Sutton's 15-yard touchdown catch with 1:09 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Courtland Sutton15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilson · two-point no goodLead never changed again+620–2110 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryBroncos
Vikings ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Broncos’s 52 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Broncos 5.
Vikings outgained Broncos 385-296 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's play-action rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 6.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate, 26.3%, is past their previous high of 24.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.9% in week 10 against 68.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 10 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.9 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.1 pts in week 10 against +0.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-3.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.4 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 70 snaps
Broncos0.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +4.1 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings47.1%leaned — ran early · −12.8 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 51 early downs
Broncos68.4%leaned — passed early · +12.2 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Vikings26.3%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Broncos2.7%off script — dropped back clean · −18.4 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−2.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings75.0%leaned — went for it · +38.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos16.7%right on their number · −5.0 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±19.1 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 97%
Tendencies room →Vikings43.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos42.1%inside their normal wobble · +10.3 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Vikings18.9%leaned — got home · +5.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos26.3%leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 18.4 points below their season mean of 21.1% and 2.1 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
27/35, 259 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.5 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
20/32, 221 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.1 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
4/5 for 66 yds, 1 TD
16% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Courtland Sutton banked 8.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua DobbsQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 221 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.6 | +8.5 | 80% | 92% | 16% | 31% | 4/5, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Committee Back | 15.0 | +3.8 | 31% | 26% | 14% | 2% | 10 car, 73 yd · 4/4, 37 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +6.6 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 12% | 4/4, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 14.5 | +1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/35, 259 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 13.7 | +2.8 | 36% | 49% | 22% | 3% | 1 car, 7 yd · 7/7, 60 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | −0.5 | 71% | 95% | 22% | 25% | 5/7, 58 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −1.1 | 70% | 79% | 24% | 29% | 4/7, 55 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −5.1 | 95% | 87% | 21% | 37% | 3/6, 44 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.3 | −2.7 | 49% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 37 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −7.9 | 65% | 55% | 7% | 0% | 18 car, 81 yd · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | −1.2 | 15% | 19% | 16% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 5/5, 14 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +1.0 | 59% | 68% | 14% | 6% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +2.1 | 78% | 84% | 6% | 11% | 2/2, 33 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.4 | 56% | 68% | 9% | 18% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.7 | 96% | 89% | 7% | 15% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 35% | 16% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 4-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian [47-J.Jewell] at MIN 18. 29-J.McMillian to MIN 9 for 9 yards (32-T.Chandler).
Q4 12:37 · Vikings · 1st & 20 at MIN 15 · gained nothing · -5.09 EP · −24.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Vikings0
Broncos3Vikings6Broncos3Vikings7Broncos3Vikings10Broncos3Vikings10Broncos6Vikings10Broncos9How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Vikings16Broncos9Vikings17Broncos9How the play was built
A man in motion.
Vikings17Broncos12How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Vikings17Broncos15How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Vikings20Broncos15How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Vikings20Broncos21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 20/32 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 | +4.3 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 24% | +2.0 |
| Josh Oliver | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 14% | +5.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/35 | 259 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_11_MIN_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 21% | +0.4 |
| Ty Chandler | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 14% | −1.7 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −2.1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 37 |
| 3.4 |
| 0 |
| −3.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 16% | +5.8 |
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 22% | +2.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 22% | +1.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 16% | −1.1 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −2.2 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 11 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jonathan Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
