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2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Minnesota Vikings

20

Denver BroncosWinner

21

DEN -2.5 no coverU 43.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:37, MIN +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑MIN ↓
Q4 · 12:37MIN 17 — DEN 12MIN ball · 1st & 20MIN 70%

(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 4-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian [47-J.Jewell] at MIN 18. 29-J.McMillian to MIN 9 for 9 yards (32-T.Chandler).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 12:37MIN +27% win prob(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 4-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian [47-J.Jewell] at MIN 18. 29-J.McMillian to MIN 9 for 9 yards (32-T.Chandler).
  2. Q4 · 0:28MIN +23% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right [93-D.Jones]. PENALTY on MIN-15-J.Dobbs, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 36.
  3. Q4 · 2:27DEN +16% win prob(2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 13 yards (40-I.Pace). Penalty on MIN-40-I.Pace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  4. Q1 · 13:38MIN +15% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Hockenson. 15-J.Dobbs left end to MIN 34 for no gain (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning), RECOVERED by DEN-29-J.McMillian at MIN 35. 29-J.McMillian to MIN 30 for 5 yards (17-K.Osborn).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:31DEN Field goal

    (10:31) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — DEN 3
  2. Q2 · 15:00MIN Touchdown

    (15:00) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-Z.Allen]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DEN 3
  3. Q2 · 8:13MIN Field goal

    (8:13) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 10 — DEN 3
  4. Q2 · 4:11DEN Field goal

    (4:11) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: MIN 10 — DEN 6
  5. Q2 · 0:05DEN Field goal

    (:05) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: MIN 10 — DEN 9
  6. Q3 · 8:01MIN Touchdown

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DEN 9
  7. Q4 · 12:44DEN Field goal

    (12:44) 16-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DEN 12
  8. Q4 · 10:40DEN Field goal

    (10:40) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DEN 15
  9. Q4 · 3:20MIN Field goal

    (3:20) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 20 — DEN 15
  10. Q4 · 1:09DEN Touchdown

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Hunter].

    Score after this play: MIN 20 — DEN 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsBroncos
Offensive plays7052
Total yards385 (edge)296
Yards per play5.55.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.02 (edge)-0.04
Success rate49% (edge)40%
Dropback rate54%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.24
Third downs6/15 (edge)2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)14
Sacks taken22
Turnovers30 (edge)

Vikings outgained Broncos 385–296 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

27/35, 259 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Joshua DobbsQB

20/32, 221 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

18 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

10 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

4/5 for 66 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Samaje PerineRB

7/7 for 60 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 25491:30Fumble
2DENMIN 306173:02Field goal +3
3MINMIN 258383:45Punt
4DENDEN 20481:42Punt
5MINMIN 3511655:08Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 25571:36Punt
7MINMIN 299555:08Field goal +3
8DENDEN 258634:01Field goal +3
9MINMIN 258332:57Punt
10DENDEN 207461:11Field goal +3
11DENDEN 25682:27Punt
12MINMIN 3110554:38Touchdown +7
13DENDEN 25571:32Punt
14MINMIN 206463:35Fumble
15DENDEN 349515:08Field goal +3
16MINMIN 25200:10Interception
17DENMIN 94141:53Field goal +3
18MINMIN 2515737:20Field goal +3
19DENDEN 2512752:14Touchdown +6
20MINMIN 259110:47Turnover on downs
21DENMIN 21100:16End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joshua Dobbs20/322211121.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison18814.50-5.0
Ty Chandler10737.304.3
Joshua Dobbs8212.61-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
T.J. Hockenson4755024%2.0
Josh Oliver4447114%5.4
Jordan Addison3644021%0.4
Ty Chandler4437014%2.6
Brandon Powell3432014%-1.7
K.J. Osborn12707%-2.1
Alexander Mattison12-107%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Camryn Bynum430.000
Mekhi Blackmon520.000
Ivan Pace430.000
Harrison Smith310.000
Josh Metellus220.001
D.J. Wonnum221.000
Harrison Phillips130.000
Danielle Hunter211.000
Khyiris Tonga200.000
Ty Chandler100.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson27/352591021.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams11373.40-3.3
Samaje Perine177.00-0.3
Russell Wilson210.50-2.1
Jaleel McLaughlin111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton4566116%5.8
Samaje Perine7760022%2.0
Jerry Jeudy5758022%1.4
Adam Trautman223306%1.5
Javonte Williams221606%0.2
Jaleel McLaughlin5514016%-1.1
Marvin Mims231209%-2.2
Lil'Jordan Humphrey01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton1150.000
Kareem Jackson530.000
Josey Jewell510.000
Justin Simmons310.003
Jonathan Harris130.000
Zach Allen220.000
Patrick Surtain310.001
Jonathon Cooper131.000
D.J. Jones210.000
Baron Browning301.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Closing total
43.5
MIN moneyline
+120
DEN moneyline
-142

Broncos closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
53°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
MIN 7 days · DEN 6 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Sean Payton