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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Giants 31 at Washington Commanders 19. Final.
Commanders -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
New York Giants 31, Commanders 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:51, 1st and 10, on Chris Rodriguez — 23.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:51 · 1st and 10
Chris Rodriguez
Giants
(:51) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle to NYG 32 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney, 58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 31, RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 32.
O 39 ✓
Commanders closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 31–19. Biggest swing: Q3 0:51, Giants +23.3% win probability on one snap.
23.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ3 15:0046-R.Bullock kicks 68 yards from NYG 35 to WAS -3. 3-B.Pringle to WAS 34 for 37 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-39-G.Owens at WAS 34.
18.0pts
Isaiah SimmonsGiantsQ4 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 6 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:51) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle to NYG 32 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney, 58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 31, RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 32.
Swing −23.3 for CommandersExpected points −5.16 for CommandersThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 122
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:51NYG +23% win prob(:51) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle to NYG 32 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney, 58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 31, RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 32.
3rd · 15:00NYG +18% win prob46-R.Bullock kicks 68 yards from NYG 35 to WAS -3. 3-B.Pringle to WAS 34 for 37 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-39-G.Owens at WAS 34.
4th · 0:29NYG +18% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:29NYG +12% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-C.Leno, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43 - No Play.
1st · 7:05WAS +10% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton to WAS 24 for 24 yards (35-P.Butler; 31-K.Curl). WAS-35-P.Butler was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. WAS 35 - Back injury
4th · 13:37WAS +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 24-yard touchdown catch with 6:35 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:35Saquon Barkley·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Tommy DeVitofrom Tommy DeVitoLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:15Joey Slye·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+37–3
2nd6:06Darius Slayton·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Tommy DeVitofrom Tommy DeVito+714–3
2nd1:38Sam Howell·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+614–9
3rd5:47Joey Slye·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+314–12
4th13:37Saquon Barkley·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tommy DeVitofrom Tommy DeVito+721–12
4th6:52Randy Bullock·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+324–12
4th2:21Jahan Dotson·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+724–19
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Giants: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.17Commanders: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Giants: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.15Commanders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Giants: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.22Commanders: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Commanders’s 77 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Commanders 3.
NoteCommanders outgained Giants 404-292 but lost the turnover battle 6-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
WAS's blitz rate sent, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 44.4% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Commanders25.0%
leaned — got home · +12.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteWAS's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 28.5% and 2.0 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Howell pass−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:29 · Commanders · 1st & 15 at NYG 48 · gained nothing · -8.32 EP · −25.0% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
696
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.3667%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1470%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2439%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.11100%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.3240%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 46
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 35
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 18
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants6Commanders0
Giants7Commanders0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 24
Giants7Commanders3
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 5
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 37
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Giants13Commanders3
Giants14Commanders3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Commanders 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Giants14Commanders9
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 7
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 31
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Punt4 plays
Giants14Commanders12
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Giants 24
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Giants 35
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Giants20Commanders12
Giants21Commanders12
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Commanders 5
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 38
Giants24Commanders12
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Commanders 15
Giants24Commanders18
Giants24Commanders19
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 8
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Giants30Commanders19
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Giants 43
Giants31Commanders19
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -7.5
Closing total
39
Giants moneyline
+310
Commanders moneyline
-395
Commanders closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39; the game landed 50 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Giants 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(13:37) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:57NYG +9% win prob(1:57) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 19 for no gain (44-N.McCloud).
1st · 7:49NYG +9% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 82-L.Thomas to NYG 48 for 5 yards (41-M.McFadden, 28-C.Flott). FUMBLES (28-C.Flott), touched at NYG 48, RECOVERED by NYG-29-X.McKinney at WAS 45. 29-X.McKinney to WAS 45 for no gain (8-B.Robinson).
