2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · FedExField

New York GiantsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -7.5 upsetO 39 ✓Commanders closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 31–19. Biggest swing: Q3 0:51, NYG +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:51NYG 14 — WAS 12WAS ball · 1st & 10WAS 66%

(:51) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle to NYG 32 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney, 58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 31, RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 32.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:51NYG +23% win prob(:51) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle to NYG 32 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney, 58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 31, RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 32.
Q3 · 15:00NYG +18% win prob46-R.Bullock kicks 68 yards from NYG 35 to WAS -3. 3-B.Pringle to WAS 34 for 37 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-39-G.Owens at WAS 34.
Q4 · 0:29NYG +18% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:29NYG +12% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-C.Leno, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:35NYG Touchdown
(6:35) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 7 — WAS 0
Q1 · 2:15WAS Field goal
(2:15) 6-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: NYG 7 — WAS 3
Q2 · 6:06NYG Touchdown
(6:06) 15-T.DeVito pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 14 — WAS 3
Q2 · 1:38WAS Touchdown
(1:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-28-C.Flott, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-4-C.Samuel, Disqualification, offsetting.
Score after this play: NYG 14 — WAS 9
Q3 · 5:47WAS Field goal
(5:47) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: NYG 14 — WAS 12
Q4 · 13:37NYG Touchdown
(13:37) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 21 — WAS 12
Q4 · 6:52NYG Field goal
(6:52) 46-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NYG 24 — WAS 12
Q4 · 2:21WAS Touchdown
(2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 1-J.Dotson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 24 — WAS 19
Q4 · 0:29NYG Touchdown
(:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 31 — WAS 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Commanders
Offensive plays	54	77
Total yards	292	404 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	35%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.22 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	13	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	9	4 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	6

Commanders outgained Giants 404–292 but lost the turnover battle 6–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

31/45, 256 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-8.9 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Tommy DeVitoQB

18/26, 246 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

14 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

17 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Darius SlaytonWR

4/5 for 82 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

7/9 for 59 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	8	19	3:04	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 20	4	15	1:55	Interception
3	NYG	NYG 13	4	5	1:37	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 36	2	16	0:45	Fumble
5	NYG	WAS 45	5	45	1:10	Touchdown +7
6	WAS	WAS 25	10	70	4:17	Field goal +3
7	NYG	NYG 25	5	-8	2:08	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 26	4	8	1:22	Punt
9	NYG	NYG 25	8	41	3:31	Turnover on downs
10	WAS	WAS 35	4	-6	1:28	Punt
11	NYG	NYG 38	7	62	2:45	Touchdown +7
12	WAS	WAS 25	14	75	4:26	Touchdown +6
13	NYG	NYG 25	5	-2	0:22	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 41	3	-7	1:10	End of half
15	WAS	—	1	0	0:11	Fumble
16	NYG	WAS 34	4	-11	1:29	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 8	13	63	7:37	Field goal +3
18	NYG	NYG 25	6	19	2:03	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 23	5	45	2:58	Fumble
20	NYG	NYG 32	6	68	2:10	Touchdown +7
21	WAS	WAS 25	6	13	2:21	Interception
22	NYG	NYG 36	7	46	4:23	Field goal +3
23	WAS	WAS 25	14	56	4:32	Touchdown +7
24	NYG	NYG 25	5	8	0:27	Punt
25	WAS	WAS 19	7	33	1:33	Defensive touchdown
26	WAS	WAS 39	2	23	0:16	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tommy DeVito	18/26	246	3	0	9	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	14	83	5.9	-0.9
Tommy DeVito	1	7	7.0	-0.4
Wan'Dale Robinson	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Matt Breida	3	-1	-0.3	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	4	5	82	1	19%	8.4
Saquon Barkley	4	5	57	2	19%	8.1
Daniel Bellinger	3	3	38	0	12%	1.6
Wan'Dale Robinson	3	4	35	0	15%	2.3
Isaiah Hodgins	2	3	22	0	12%	-1.4
Jalin Hyatt	1	2	7	0	8%	-0.1
Sterling Shepard	1	3	5	0	12%	-2.9
Matt Breida	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	6	8	0.0	0	0
Xavier McKinney	6	5	0.0	0	0
Micah McFadden	3	3	0.0	0	1
Tre Hawkins	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kayvon Thibodeaux	3	2	2.0	0	1
Isaiah Simmons	4	0	0.0	1	1
Darnay Holmes	4	0	0.0	1	1
Nick McCloud	3	1	0.0	1	1
Dane Belton	2	2	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	2	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	31/45	256	1	3	4	-8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	17	73	4.3	0	-2.6
Chris Rodriguez	6	43	7.2	0	-2.3
Sam Howell	3	35	11.7	1	6.9
Derrick Gore	2	23	11.5	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brian Robinson	7	9	59	0	21%	3.7
Logan Thomas	5	8	58	0	19%	-12.3
Terry McLaurin	5	7	43	0	17%	1.5
Jahan Dotson	3	4	23	1	10%	0.9
Byron Pringle	3	3	22	0	7%	-0.2
John Bates	2	2	15	0	5%	0.7
Jamison Crowder	2	2	12	0	5%	-0.1
Dyami Brown	1	3	7	0	7%	-2.4
Cole Turner	1	1	7	0	2%	0.4
Chris Rodriguez	1	1	5	0	2%	0.4
Curtis Samuel	1	2	5	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kamren Curl	4	3	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	5	2	1.0	0
Percy Butler	4	2	0.0	0
David Mayo	5	1	2.0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	1	1.5	0
K.J. Henry	1	2	1.5	2
Emmanuel Forbes	3	0	0.0	2
Daron Payne	1	2	1.0	0
Phidarian Mathis	1	1	0.0	0
Danny Johnson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -7.5
Closing total: 39
NYG moneyline: +310
WAS moneyline: -395

Commanders closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39; the game landed 50 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NYG 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Brian Daboll vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.