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It turned at Q1 15:00 — 6.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.
Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 26.
Buffalo Bills 32–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Bills +6.3% win probability on one snap.
6.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AllenBillsQ1 14:53(14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (26-B.Echols).
4.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ1 12:12(12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 2 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
5.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.49 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Jets at 0 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jets at 4 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets164 of 176 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 15:00Jets 0 — Bills 0NYJ ballBUF 79%
Jets 21%Bills 79%
2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.
Swing +6.3 for BillsExpected points +5.69 for BillsThe model had Jets 22 points higher than the market did.play 2
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00NYJ +6% win prob2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.
1st · 12:12BUF +6% win prob(12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 2 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
1st · 14:53BUF +5% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (26-B.Echols).
2nd · 5:25NYJ +4% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NYJ 31. 31-R.Douglas to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (17-G.Wilson).
1st · 14:15NYJ +4% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at NYJ 30 for -12 yards (95-Q.Williams).
2nd · 14:53BUF +4% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NYJ 28 for 27 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 48-yard field goal with 13:35 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:35Tyler Bass·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+30–3
1st5:59Tyler Bass·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+30–6
2nd11:29Tyler Bass·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+30–9
4th5:21Tyler Bass·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+36–32
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Jets0–8Bills
155Total yards395
2.8Yards per play5.7
25%Success rate36%
0%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays6
12First downs19
6Sacks taken1
4Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Jets: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.09Bills: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Jets: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.34Bills: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Jets: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.16Bills: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Bills’s 69 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 83.3%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 11.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 10.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bills17.5%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 51.7 points above their season mean of 31.7% and 2.0 times their own 25.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Chris GlaserG · Every snap100%57 snaps
61Max MitchellT · Every snap100%57 snaps
78Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
17Garrett WilsonWR · Full-time95%54 snaps
66Joe TippmannC · Full-time95%54 snaps
67Carter WarrenT · Full-time86%49 snaps
82Xavier GipsonWR · Heavy rotation79%45 snaps
2Zach WilsonQB · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
10Allen LazardWR · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation63%36 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational42%24 snaps
16Jason BrownleeWR · Rotational33%19 snaps
7Tim BoyleQB · Rotational33%19 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Rotational25%14 snaps
25Israel AbanikandaRB · Situational18%10 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Situational14%8 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Situational11%6 snaps
62Jake HansonC · Situational5%3 snaps
48Nick BawdenFB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael CarterCBCarl LawsonDESam EguavoenILBChazz SurrattILBBilly TurnerTAustin DeculusTRandall CobbWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bass kicks−9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.
Q1 15:00 · Jets · Kickoff at BUF 35 · gained nothing · -5.69 EP · −8.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 86 yards from the BUF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
30%
Yards
548
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2164%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.5070%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.090%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.190%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.5980%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Jets0Bills3
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 18
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 42
Jets0Bills6
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Jets 12
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Jets 49
2nd quarter62 plays
Jets0Bills9
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 15
Punt5 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Jets 38
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 27
Jets0Bills15
Jets0Bills16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 4
Jets6Bills16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Bills 9
Intercepted13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 47
3rd quarter38 plays
Jets6Bills22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 28
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 41
Jets6Bills28
Jets6Bills29
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 19
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 42
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Bills 47
4th quarter37 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 42
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Jets 48
Punt4 plays
Jets6Bills32
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Jets 31
Intercepted11 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Bills 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Jets 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
