2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · New Era Field

New York Jets

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -8 ✓U 39.5 ✓Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 26.

Buffalo Bills 32–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, NYJ +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 15:00NYJ 0 — BUF 0NYJ ballBUF 79%

2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 15:00NYJ +6% win prob2-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 8. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 14 yards (41-R.Gilliam). FUMBLES (41-R.Gilliam), RECOVERED by BUF-85-Q.Morris at NYJ 21.
Q1 · 12:12BUF +6% win prob(12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 2 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
Q1 · 14:53BUF +5% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q2 · 5:25NYJ +4% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NYJ 31. 31-R.Douglas to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (17-G.Wilson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:35BUF Field goal
(13:35) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 3
Q1 · 5:59BUF Field goal
(5:59) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 6
Q2 · 11:29BUF Field goal
(11:29) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 9
Q2 · 3:08BUF Touchdown
(3:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 16
Q2 · 0:50NYJ Touchdown
(:50) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 20-Bre.Hall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — BUF 16
Q3 · 10:41BUF Touchdown
(10:41) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — BUF 22
Q3 · 6:42BUF Touchdown
(6:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — BUF 29
Q4 · 5:21BUF Field goal
(5:21) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — BUF 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bills
Offensive plays	55	69
Total yards	155	395 (edge)
Yards per play	2.8	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	0.09 (edge)
Success rate	25%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	0/11	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

20/32, 275 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

12.0 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

7/15, 81 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -17.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

17 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Latavius MurrayRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

3/4 for 115 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Breece HallRB

5/6 for 50 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
2	BUF	NYJ 21	4	-9	1:22	Field goal +3
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	-8	1:30	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 30	14	58	6:05	Field goal +3
5	NYJ	NYJ 34	7	15	3:38	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 20	9	75	5:52	Field goal +3
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-7	1:31	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 34	9	28	3:53	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 9	2	18	0:43	Interception
10	BUF	NYJ 23	6	18	2:16	Touchdown +7
11	NYJ	NYJ 16	13	69	2:18	Touchdown +6
12	BUF	BUF 25	7	17	0:45	Interception
13	BUF	BUF 25	10	60	4:26	Touchdown +6
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	9	3:10	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 14	3	86	0:55	Touchdown +7
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	10	3:12	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 25	4	2	1:00	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 34	6	29	3:08	Fumble
19	BUF	BUF 39	6	21	3:30	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 24	4	-10	1:06	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 46	7	22	4:17	Field goal +3
22	NYJ	NYJ 21	11	30	2:46	Interception
23	BUF	BUF 43	4	17	2:30	End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 86 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	7/15	81	1	1	5	-8.6
Tim Boyle	7/14	33	0	1	1	-7.6
Thomas Morstead	1/1	18	0	0	0	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Breece Hall	10	23	2.3	-1.9
Zach Wilson	4	15	3.8	-2.5
Dalvin Cook	2	13	6.5	-1.0
Israel Abanikanda	1	11	11.0	1.1
Tim Boyle	1	1	1.0	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Breece Hall	5	6	50	1	21%	6.2
Jeremy Ruckert	3	4	25	0	14%	-0.6
Brandin Echols	1	1	18	0	4%	2.7
Tyler Conklin	2	3	18	0	11%	-0.9
Garrett Wilson	2	8	9	0	29%	-14.3
Xavier Gipson	1	2	7	0	7%	1.4
Israel Abanikanda	1	2	5	0	7%	-0.5
Dalvin Cook	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Allen Lazard	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quincy Williams	6	4	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	9	0	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	4	1.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	3	0.0	0
Brandin Echols	3	2	0.0	1
C.J. Mosley	1	3	0.0	0
Tony Adams	3	0	0.0	0
Jermaine Johnson	1	2	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	1	2	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	2	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	20/32	275	3	1	1	12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Cook	17	73	4.3	-1.7
Latavius Murray	10	35	3.5	-2.2
Josh Allen	5	15	3.0	0.8
Ty Johnson	3	11	3.7	-1.4
Deonte Harty	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0
Kyle Allen	2	-2	-1.0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	3	4	115	1	14%	8.2
Ty Johnson	3	3	47	1	10%	5.5
Dalton Kincaid	6	7	46	0	24%	1.1
James Cook	3	4	29	1	14%	3.0
Stefon Diggs	4	8	27	0	28%	0.7
Quintin Morris	1	2	11	0	7%	-0.8
Deonte Harty	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrel Bernard	2	4	0.5	0	0
Tyrel Dodson	4	1	1.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	2	0.0	2	3
Siran Neal	4	0	0.0	0	0
Dorian Williams	2	2	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	3	0	1.0	0	0
Taylor Rapp	1	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	1	2.5	0	0
Taron Johnson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Lewis	1	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -8
Closing total: 39.5
NYJ moneyline: +310
BUF moneyline: -395

Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 38 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: NYJ 7 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.