2023 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 20, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -2.5 upsetU 46 ✓Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 6:55, KC +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:55PHI 14 — KC 17PHI ball · 1st & 10KC 58%

(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to KC 1 for 41 yards (21-M.Edwards).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:55KC +23% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to KC 1 for 41 yards (21-M.Edwards).
Q2 · 6:51PHI +18% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 84-Ju.Watson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at PHI -5. Touchback.
Q4 · 1:42PHI +17% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [94-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on KC-15-P.Mahomes, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at KC 49.
Q4 · 13:21PHI +16% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to PHI 9 for 5 yards (33-B.Roby). FUMBLES (33-B.Roby), RECOVERED by PHI-41-N.Morrow at PHI 10.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:40KC Touchdown
(5:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox]. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — KC 7
Q1 · 0:36PHI Touchdown
(:36) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — KC 7
Q2 · 1:49KC Touchdown
(1:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — KC 14
Q2 · 0:02KC Field goal
(:02) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: PHI 7 — KC 17
Q3 · 4:09PHI Touchdown
(4:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — KC 17
Q4 · 6:23PHI Touchdown
(6:23) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-90-C.Omenihu, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 21 — KC 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Chiefs
Offensive plays	51	73
Total yards	241	336 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	39% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	55%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.12
Third downs	3/10	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs outgained Eagles 336–241 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/43, 177 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

14/22, 150 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

19 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

12 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

6/8 for 99 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Justin WatsonWR

5/11 for 53 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · -4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	5	-5	1:29	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 43	4	-3	2:14	Punt
3	KC	KC 20	11	75	5:43	Touchdown +7
4	PHI	PHI 25	11	70	5:03	Touchdown +7
5	KC	KC 25	5	3	1:29	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 39	4	13	2:07	Interception
7	KC	KC 30	9	56	5:10	Interception
8	PHI	PHI 20	5	3	2:56	Punt
9	KC	PHI 45	8	40	2:04	Touchdown +7
10	PHI	PHI 25	5	-5	1:01	Punt
11	KC	PHI 46	6	21	0:44	Field goal +3
12	PHI	PHI 25	5	1	2:02	Punt
13	KC	KC 21	5	32	2:36	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 25	4	6	1:23	Punt
15	KC	KC 29	4	8	2:01	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 39	8	61	2:53	Touchdown +7
17	KC	KC 25	13	54	5:50	Fumble
18	PHI	PHI 10	4	5	1:37	Punt
19	KC	KC 37	7	24	2:42	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 20	8	80	2:36	Touchdown +7
21	KC	KC 25	5	3	0:52	Punt
22	PHI	PHI 44	6	10	2:39	Punt
23	KC	KC 9	9	25	1:21	Turnover on downs
24	PHI	KC 34	3	0	1:28	End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	14/22	150	0	1	5	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	12	76	6.3	1	0.3
Jalen Hurts	12	29	2.4	2	0.6
Boston Scott	2	8	4.0	0	0.1
Kenneth Gainwell	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	6	8	99	38%	6.9
D'Andre Swift	3	3	31	14%	1.8
A.J. Brown	1	4	8	19%	-4.0
Julio Jones	2	2	5	10%	-0.4
Kenneth Gainwell	1	1	4	5%	-0.0
Jack Stoll	1	2	3	10%	-1.2
Olamide Zaccheaus	0	1	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kevin Byard	8	0	0.0	1	2
Reed Blankenship	6	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	6	1	0.0	0	1
Nicholas Morrow	4	1	0.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	5	0	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	2	2	1.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	2	2	0.0	0	0
Milton Williams	3	1	0.0	0	0
Sydney Brown	4	0	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	3	0	0.0	0	2

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/43	177	2	1	1	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	19	89	4.7	0.8
Patrick Mahomes	6	38	6.3	0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	20	10.0	0.7
Kadarius Toney	2	14	7.0	0.3
Jerick McKinnon	1	7	7.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Watson	5	11	53	1	28%	-4.4
Travis Kelce	7	9	44	1	23%	-1.2
Rashee Rice	4	5	42	0	13%	0.3
Kadarius Toney	2	2	12	0	5%	1.5
Mecole Hardman	2	2	12	0	5%	0.1
Jerick McKinnon	2	3	8	0	8%	-1.9
Skyy Moore	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.6
Isiah Pacheco	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5
Noah Gray	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	3	0	0	8%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Reid	7	0	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	5	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	5	0	2.0	0	0
Willie Gay	3	0	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	1	0.0	1	2
Trent McDuffie	3	0	2.0	0	1
George Karlaftis	2	1	1.0	0	0
Leo Chenal	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 46
PHI moneyline: +124
KC moneyline: -148

Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 38 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: PHI 15 days · KC 15 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Andy Reid