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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 20, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia21
BY 4final margin
ChiefsKansas City17
Philadelphia Eagles 21 at Kansas City Chiefs 17. Final.
Chiefs -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
Philadelphia Eagles 21, Chiefs 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:55, 1st and 10, on DeVonta Smith — 22.9 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:55 · 1st and 10
DeVonta Smith
Eagles
(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to KC 1 for 41 yards (21-M.Edwards).
U 46 ✓
Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 6:55, Eagles +22.9% win probability on one snap.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kevin ByardEaglesQ2 6:51(6:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 84-Ju.Watson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at PHI -5. Touchback.
17.5pts
Patrick MahomesEaglesQ4 1:42(1:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [94-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on KC-15-P.Mahomes, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at KC 49.
16.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 17 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 10 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Eagles168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to KC 1 for 41 yards (21-M.Edwards).
Swing −22.9 for ChiefsExpected points −3.26 for ChiefsThe model had Eagles 2 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:55KC +23% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to KC 1 for 41 yards (21-M.Edwards).
2nd · 6:51PHI +18% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 84-Ju.Watson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at PHI -5. Touchback.
4th · 1:42PHI +17% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [94-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on KC-15-P.Mahomes, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at KC 49.
4th · 13:21PHI +16% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to PHI 9 for 5 yards (33-B.Roby). FUMBLES (33-B.Roby), RECOVERED by PHI-41-N.Morrow at PHI 10.
4th · 2:18KC +11% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 21 for 4 yards (21-S.Brown).
4th · 2:56KC +11% win prob(2:56) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 9 for no gain (28-J.Jobe).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:23 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:40Justin Watson·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–7
4th6:23Jalen Hurts·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryChiefs
Eagles5–4Chiefs
241Total yards336
4.7Yards per play4.6
39%Success rate34%
30%Third-down rate47%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
15First downs20
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Eagles: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.13Chiefs: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Eagles: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.26Chiefs: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 51 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 73 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Chiefs 4.
NoteChiefs outgained Eagles 336-241 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
KC's blitz rate sent, 64.3%, is past their previous high of 42.9% in week 1 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, −0.5 pts, is past their previous low of +1.3 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chiefs17.9%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 64.3%, 31.2 points above their season mean of 33.1% and 2.6 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to KC 1 for 41 yards (21-M.Edwards).
Q4 6:55 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at KC 42 · gained 41 · +3.26 EP · +20.5% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
34%
Yards
574
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1560%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.3062%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.1157%
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11+0.3964%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.050%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 47
Eagles0Chiefs6
Eagles0Chiefs7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Eagles 3
Eagles6Chiefs7
Eagles7Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Chiefs 48
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Eagles 14
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 30
Eagles7Chiefs13
Eagles7Chiefs14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 4
The period ended6 plays
Eagles7Chiefs17
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Eagles 25
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 29
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chiefs 37
Eagles13Chiefs17
Eagles14Chiefs17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Chiefs 10
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Eagles 25
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 14
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 15
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Eagles 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Eagles20Chiefs17
Eagles21Chiefs17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Chiefs 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 49
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
