2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -2.5 ✓U 34 ✓Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Cleveland Browns 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:28, PIT +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:28PIT 10 — CLE 10PIT ball · 4th & 10CLE 54%

(1:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (51-Ni.Herbig).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:28PIT +21% win prob(1:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (51-Ni.Herbig).
Q3 · 14:22CLE +19% win prob(14:22) 30-J.Warren right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:03PIT +13% win prob(5:03) 22-N.Harris left guard to CLE 45 for -5 yards (54-O.Okoronkwo).
Q4 · 1:56PIT +12% win prob(1:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 30 for 21 yards (22-G.Delpit; 47-C.Hughlett).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:38CLE Touchdown
(4:38) 53-N.Harris and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford right guard to PIT 1 for no gain (99-L.Ogunjobi). Cleveland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 53-N.Harris and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — CLE 7
Q2 · 0:09CLE Field goal
(:09) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: PIT 0 — CLE 10
Q3 · 14:22PIT Touchdown
(14:22) 30-J.Warren right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — CLE 10
Q4 · 7:44PIT Field goal
(7:44) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — CLE 10
Q4 · 0:05CLE Field goal
(:05) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — CLE 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Browns
Offensive plays	56	71
Total yards	250	259 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	36%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	3/14	4/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	12	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB

24/43, 165 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -14.0% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

15/28, 106 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

9 att, 129 yds, 1 TD

8.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

12 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Elijah MooreWR

6/7 for 60 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

7/15 for 56 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	10	31	4:32	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 9	4	-2	2:04	Punt
3	CLE	50	8	44	3:49	Touchdown +7
4	PIT	PIT 25	7	18	3:19	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 10	4	9	1:24	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 16	9	42	3:43	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 11	4	7	2:20	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 33	6	7	3:20	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 17	17	72	5:24	Field goal +3
10	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:05	End of half
11	PIT	PIT 25	4	75	0:50	Touchdown +7
12	CLE	CLE 25	11	25	4:28	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 13	4	7	1:50	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 36	4	5	0:58	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 20	8	17	2:48	Punt
16	CLE	PIT 48	6	-3	2:36	Interception
17	PIT	PIT 23	4	2	0:40	Punt
18	CLE	PIT 45	4	-4	1:00	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 28	13	62	7:10	Field goal +3
20	CLE	CLE 25	5	12	1:53	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 48	5	9	2:18	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 14	6	18	1:47	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 30	4	0	0:24	Punt
24	CLE	CLE 35	8	43	1:16	Field goal +3
25	PIT	PIT 25	2	13	0:02	End of game

5 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	15/28	106	0	0	3	-11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaylen Warren	9	129	14.3	1	8.5
Najee Harris	12	35	2.9	0	-4.3
Kenny Pickett	4	9	2.3	0	2.6
George Pickens	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	4	6	38	24%	0.9
Allen Robinson	3	4	20	16%	-0.4
Jaylen Warren	3	3	16	12%	0.6
Diontae Johnson	2	8	16	32%	-3.4
Darnell Washington	1	1	8	4%	-0.4
Pat Freiermuth	1	1	7	4%	0.4
Najee Harris	1	2	1	8%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Elandon Roberts	9	4	0.0	0	0
Joey Porter	5	1	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	4	2	1.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	4	0.0	0	0
Trenton Thompson	5	1	0.0	0	2
Damontae Kazee	3	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Keeanu Benton	1	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	0	0.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	1	1	0.0	1	2

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	24/43	165	0	1	1	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	12	36	3.0	0	-0.9
Jerome Ford	12	31	2.6	1	-1.1
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	3	20	6.7	0	1.8
Cedric Tillman	1	8	8.0	0	0.2
Pierre Strong	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Elijah Moore	6	7	60	17%	2.3
David Njoku	7	15	56	37%	-3.1
Amari Cooper	4	8	34	20%	-4.0
Jerome Ford	2	5	8	12%	-3.6
Pierre Strong	1	1	4	2%	-0.1
Cedric Tillman	1	2	2	5%	1.5
Kareem Hunt	3	3	1	7%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Rodney McLeod	1	4	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	4	1	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	4	1	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	2	0.0	1
Martin Emerson	1	4	0.0	0
Ronnie Hickman	3	1	0.0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	2	1	1.0	0
Greg Newsome	2	1	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	2	0	2.0	0
Denzel Ward	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 34
PIT moneyline: +120
CLE moneyline: -142

Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 34; the game landed 23 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PIT 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.