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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Steelers166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (51-Ni.Herbig).
Swing +20.7 for BrownsExpected points +0.98 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:28PIT +21% win prob(1:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (51-Ni.Herbig).
3rd · 14:22CLE +19% win prob(14:22) 30-J.Warren right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:03PIT +13% win prob(5:03) 22-N.Harris left guard to CLE 45 for -5 yards (54-O.Okoronkwo).
4th · 1:56PIT +12% win prob(1:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 30 for 21 yards (22-G.Delpit; 47-C.Hughlett).
4th · 2:00PIT +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku.
4th · 11:09CLE +10% win prob(11:09) 30-J.Warren right guard to CLE 27 for 21 yards (26-R.McLeod; 23-M.Emerson). CLE-26-R.McLeod was injured during the play.
4th · 2:49
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 34-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th7:44Chris Boswell·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+310–10
4th0:05Dustin Hopkins·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+310–13
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Steelers3–6Browns
250Total yards259
4.5Yards per play3.6
36%Success rate37%
21%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
12First downs17
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Steelers: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.22Browns: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Steelers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.02Browns: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 56 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Browns’s 71 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Browns 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 9.3%, is past their previous low of 11.1% in week 8 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Browns12.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 9.3%, 6.6 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.3 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%58 snaps
8Kenny PickettQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
61Mason ColeC · Every snap100%58 snaps
78James DanielsG · Every snap100%58 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time92%53 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time86%50 snaps
11Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation78%45 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation57%33 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational47%27 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational45%26 snaps
19Calvin AustinWR · Situational17%10 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Situational14%8 snaps
13Miles BoykinWR · Situational10%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Darius RushCBMinkah FitzpatrickFSMontravius AdamsNTMason RudolphQBGodwin IgwebuikeRBDylan CookT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Warren right+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:22) 30-J.Warren right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:22 · Steelers · 2nd & 9 at PIT 26 · gained 74 · +6.77 EP · +15.3% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 77 yards from the CLE 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
33%
Yards
508
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.2459%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1371%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.5230%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.0129%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1160%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.2340%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 44
Punt4 plays
Steelers0Browns6
Steelers0Browns7
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Steelers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 11
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Browns 47
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 18
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Browns 49
Steelers0Browns10
Field goal21 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Steelers 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Steelers6Browns10
Steelers7Browns10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 20
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 41
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 30
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Steelers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 25
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Steelers10Browns10
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Browns 10
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Browns 40
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 32
Punt4 plays
Steelers10Browns13
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Steelers 17
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
