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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:08) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Swing +41.7 for RamsExpected points +1.86 for RamsThe model had Rams 10 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:08SEA +42% win prob(:08) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 0:41LA +22% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf to LA 39 for 21 yards (43-J.Johnson).
1st · 2:04SEA +12% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 5-T.Atwell.
4th · 5:46LA +10% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua. PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play.
4th · 8:09LA +10% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-P.Nacua. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 5 - No Play.
4th · 5:41LA +10% win prob(5:41) 24-R.Freeman up the middle to SEA 38 for 9 yards (56-J.Brooks; 6-Q.Diggs).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lucas Havrisik's 22-yard field goal with 1:34 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:34Lucas Havrisik·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.WardLead never changed again+316–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks4–3Rams
292Total yards269
4.8Yards per play4.6
36%Success rate40%
33%Third-down rate22%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays3
15First downs15
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Seahawks: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.16Rams: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Seahawks: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.16Rams: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Seahawks: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.17Rams: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Rams’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Rams 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
LA's play-action rate, 39.4%, is past their previous high of 25.6% in week 1 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.4%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 17.9% and 2.5 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%65 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%65 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Full-time88%57 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Full-time85%55 snaps
60Phil HaynesG · Full-time82%53 snaps
70Jason PetersT · Full-time82%53 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation68%44 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Myers−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:08) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:08 · Seahawks · 3rd & 8 at LA 37 · gained nothing · -1.86 EP · −31.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
36%
Yards
558
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.1454%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0282%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0733%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.5150%
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Seahawks6Rams0
Seahawks7Rams0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Rams 8
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Seahawks 13
2nd quarter42 plays
Seahawks10Rams0
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Rams 26
Punt5 plays
Seahawks13Rams0
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Rams 5
Seahawks13Rams6
Seahawks13Rams7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 20
Seahawks16Rams7
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 28
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 37
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 44
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 15
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Rams 44
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks16Rams13
Seahawks16Rams14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Seahawks 1
Intercepted4 plays
Seahawks16Rams17
Field goal21 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Seahawks 4
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 37
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -2.5
Closing total
45
Seahawks moneyline
+114
Rams moneyline
-135
Rams closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 33 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Rams 14 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 5:20
LA +8% win prob
(5:20) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 5-T.Atwell. PENALTY on SEA-20-J.Love, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at LA 30 - No Play.
4th · 6:51SEA +8% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 1-D.Kendrick at LA 36. 1-D.Kendrick pushed ob at LA 36 for no gain (16-T.Lockett). PENALTY on LA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 36.
