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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 11
It turned at Q1 12:51, 3rd and 8, on Brock Purdy — 8.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
San Francisco 49ers 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 12:51, Buccaneers +8.5% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:51 · 3rd and 8
Brock Purdy
Buccaneers
(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
8.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.12 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 4-yard touchdown catch with 3:59 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Christian McCaffrey4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against 49ers’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, 49ers 5.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's blitz rate sent, 64.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected, +8.6 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 10 against 69.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers8.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.4 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 66 snaps
49ers0.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.3 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 82%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers69.4%leaned — passed early · +15.0 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 49 early downs
49ers52.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers14.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
49ers19.4%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers66.7%leaned — went for it · +38.0 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 77%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers64.5%leaned — sent pressure · +25.3 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers28.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers16.1%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers14.0%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
TB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 64.5%, 25.3 points above their season mean of 39.2% and 1.8 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
21/25, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
15.9 expected points added · +16.4% completion over expected
Passing · TB
29/45, 246 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-9.2 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brandon Aiyuk banked 16.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 26.7 | +13.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/25, 333 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 14 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 26.6 | +16.4 | 88% | 94% | 24% | 45% | 5/6, 156 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.9 | +7.8 | 97% | 100% | 36% | 26% | 8/9, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.3 | −0.7 | 87% | 97% | 20% | 4% | 21 car, 78 yd · 5/5, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 17.8 | +1.0 | 80% | 82% | 16% | 0% | 9 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 6/7, 28 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.3 | −5.6 | 79% | 80% | 28% | 49% | 5/12, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −7.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/45, 246 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +0.8 | 80% | 84% | 16% | 13% | 6/7, 39 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.3 | 85% | 97% | 16% | 20% | 1 car, -1 yd · 3/4, 63 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +0.3 | 96% | 96% | 12% | 10% | 4/5, 49 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −2.1 | 72% | 78% | 14% | 13% | 1 car, 6 yd · 4/6, 22 yd |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +2.1 | 20% | 16% | 5% | 13% | 1/2, 41 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.6 | 17% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 2.9 | −0.1 | 21% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 4 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 2.4 | +0.2 | 13% | 3% | 0% | — | 4 car, 24 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.9 | 23% | 22% | 2% | 3% | 1 car, 17 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.0 | — | 42% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 33% | 55% | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.
Q3 11:06 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 24 · gained 76 · +5.87 EP · +14.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 98 yards from the SF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
49ers6Buccaneers049ers7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Buccaneers049ers10Buccaneers649ers10Buccaneers749ers10Buccaneers749ers13How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Buccaneers749ers19Buccaneers749ers20Buccaneers749ers26Buccaneers749ers27Buccaneers1349ers27Buccaneers1449ers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 29/45 | 246 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −9.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Chase Edmonds |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 12% | +2.7 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/25 | 333 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +15.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_11_TB_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -13.5, won by 13 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 41 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 8 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | +0.2 |
| −1.2 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 16% | −0.2 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 16% | +0.2 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 14% | −1.7 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2% | +0.5 |
| Deven Thompkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Hayes | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 21 | 78 | 3.7 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 6 | 156 | 1 | 24% | +10.0 |
| George Kittle | 8 | 9 | 89 | 1 | 36% | +6.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 16% | +3.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 20% | +2.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Charvarius Ward | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Ambry Thomas | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
