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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 at San Francisco 49ers 27. Final.
49ers -13.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 11
San Francisco 49ers 27, Buccaneers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:51, 3rd and 8, on Brock Purdy — 8.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:51 · 3rd and 8
Brock Purdy
Buccaneers
(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
49ers closed -13.5, won by 13 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 12:51, Buccaneers +8.5% win probability on one snap.
8.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ1 12:13(12:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 22.
6.6pts
Baker Mayfield49ersQ2 13:15(13:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at SF 34 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], touched at SF 32, RECOVERED by SF-94-C.Ferrell at SF 35. Fumble Forced by SF-54-F.Warner.
7.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.12 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Buccaneers157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
Swing −8.5 for 49ersExpected points −2.24 for 49ersThe model had Buccaneers 31 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:51TB +8% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
2nd · 13:15TB +8% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at SF 34 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], touched at SF 32, RECOVERED by SF-94-C.Ferrell at SF 35. Fumble Forced by SF-54-F.Warner.
1st · 12:13SF +7% win prob(12:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 22.
1st · 3:59SF +5% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:06SF +4% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.
1st · 7:48SF +4% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to TB 38 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield, 35-J.Dean).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 4-yard touchdown catch with 3:59 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.2149ers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Buccaneers: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.5849ers: +0.58 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.2349ers: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against 49ers’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's blitz rate sent, 64.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 47.5% in week 3.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 10.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +8.6 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +4.9 pts in week 7.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 10 against 69.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers14.0%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteTB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 64.5%, 25.3 points above their season mean of 39.2% and 1.8 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
64Aaron StinnieG · Every snap100%71 snaps
69Cody MauchG · Every snap100%71 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%71 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Full-time97%69 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time96%68 snaps
1Rachaad WhiteRB · Full-time80%57 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time80%57 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Heavy rotation79%56 snaps
10Trey PalmerWR · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
83Deven ThompkinsWR · Situational23%16 snaps
22Chase EdmondsRB · Situational21%15 snaps
18Rakim JarrettWR · Situational20%14 snaps
87Payne DurhamTE · Situational17%12 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Situational13%9 snaps
77Justin SkuleT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Matt FeilerGCam GillOLBJohn WolfordQBKe'Shawn VaughnRBRyan NealSSDavid WellsTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.
Q3 11:06 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 24 · gained 76 · +5.87 EP · +14.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 98 yards from the SF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
48%
Yards
707
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0278%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.4289%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18+0.2539%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1931%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.5967%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.2814%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 40
Buccaneers049ers6
Buccaneers049ers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Buccaneers 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to midfield
2nd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 33
Buccaneers049ers10
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Buccaneers 19
Buccaneers649ers10
Buccaneers749ers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the 49ers 1
Buccaneers749ers13
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 42
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers749ers19
Buccaneers749ers20
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 24
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers749ers26
Buccaneers749ers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Buccaneers 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 32
4th quarter55 plays
Buccaneers1349ers27
Buccaneers1449ers27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the 49ers 1
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 33
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the 49ers 12
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 15
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 9
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Buccaneers 47
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the 49ers 39
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
