2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -13.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓49ers closed -13.5, won by 13 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 12:51, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:51TB 0 — SF 0SF ball · 3rd & 8SF 84%

(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:51TB +8% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 34 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
Q2 · 13:15TB +8% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at SF 34 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], touched at SF 32, RECOVERED by SF-94-C.Ferrell at SF 35. Fumble Forced by SF-54-F.Warner.
Q1 · 12:13SF +7% win prob(12:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 22.
Q1 · 3:59SF +5% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:59SF Touchdown
(3:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 7
Q2 · 7:25SF Field goal
(7:25) 4-J.Moody 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 10
Q2 · 1:52TB Touchdown
(1:52) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — SF 10
Q2 · 0:20SF Field goal
(:20) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: TB 7 — SF 13
Q3 · 11:06SF Touchdown
(11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — SF 20
Q3 · 1:46SF Touchdown
(1:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — SF 27
Q4 · 14:22TB Touchdown
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — SF 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	49ers
Offensive plays	66	57
Total yards	288	422 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	47%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.58 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	21
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

21/25, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.9 expected points added · +16.4% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

29/45, 246 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.2 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

21 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

9 att, 30 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

5/6 for 156 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

8/9 for 89 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 20	7	14	2:55	Punt
2	TB	TB 37	4	3	0:59	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	13	80	7:11	Touchdown +7
4	TB	TB 15	10	43	5:58	Fumble
5	SF	SF 35	9	46	5:36	Field goal +3
6	TB	TB 25	12	70	5:33	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 29	9	61	1:32	Field goal +3
8	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:16	End of half
9	TB	TB 23	7	19	2:32	Punt
10	SF	SF 2	4	98	1:34	Touchdown +7
11	TB	TB 10	9	23	3:54	Punt
12	SF	SF 21	10	79	5:18	Touchdown +7
13	TB	TB 25	7	53	2:26	Touchdown +7
14	SF	SF 30	5	8	1:51	Punt
15	TB	TB 20	17	68	5:46	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 12	4	3	2:27	Punt
17	TB	SF 13	3	4	0:34	Interception
18	SF	SF 20	7	33	1:25	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 47	7	5	1:11	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 48	2	0	1:02	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 98 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	29/45	246	1	1	4	-9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rachaad White	9	30	3.3	1	0.4
Deven Thompkins	1	17	17.0	0	1.8
Chase Edmonds	4	8	2.0	0	-1.3
Trey Palmer	1	6	6.0	0	0.4
Baker Mayfield	3	5	1.7	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cade Otton	4	5	49	0	12%	2.7
Mike Evans	5	12	43	1	28%	-1.2
Rakim Jarrett	1	2	41	0	5%	1.3
Chris Godwin	6	7	39	0	16%	-0.2
Rachaad White	6	7	28	0	16%	0.2
Trey Palmer	4	6	22	0	14%	-1.7
Payne Durham	2	2	13	0	5%	0.6
Chase Edmonds	1	1	11	0	2%	0.5
Deven Thompkins	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Antoine Winfield	8	7	0.0
Lavonte David	6	0	1.0
Kaevon Merriweather	2	3	0.0
Josh Hayes	1	4	0.0
Shaquil Barrett	3	2	0.0
Devin White	2	1	0.0
YaYa Diaby	3	0	2.0
Vita Vea	3	0	1.0
Anthony Nelson	1	2	0.0
Jamel Dean	2	1	0.0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	21/25	333	3	0	4	15.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	21	78	3.7	-5.4
Elijah Mitchell	4	24	6.0	0.3
Brock Purdy	4	14	3.5	2.2
Deebo Samuel	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	5	6	156	1	24%	10.0
George Kittle	8	9	89	1	36%	6.5
Deebo Samuel	3	4	63	0	16%	3.8
Christian McCaffrey	5	5	25	1	20%	2.3
Jauan Jennings	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	9	1	0.0	0	2
Charvarius Ward	7	1	0.0	0	2
Dre Greenlaw	3	4	0.5	0	2
Ambry Thomas	1	3	0.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	2	2	0.0	1	3
Nick Bosa	1	2	1.5	0	0
Arik Armstead	2	1	1.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	1	2	0.0	0	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	1	0.0	0	0
Chase Young	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -13.5
Closing total: 41.5
TB moneyline: +625
SF moneyline: -950

49ers closed -13.5, won by 13 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 41 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: TB 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Kyle Shanahan