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2023 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 19, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee Titans

14

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

34

JAX -6.5 ✓O 40 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 34–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:49, TEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑TEN ↓
Q1 · 7:49TEN 0 — JAX 0TEN ball · 2nd & 10JAX 63%

(7:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 43, touched at JAX 42, RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at JAX 43.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:49TEN +13% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 43, touched at JAX 42, RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at JAX 43.
  2. Q1 · 8:40JAX +7% win prob(8:40) 11-C.Moore left end to JAX 38 for 38 yards (33-D.Lloyd, 5-A.Cisco).
  3. Q1 · 13:10TEN +6% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 23-F.Oluokun and 44-T.Walker).
  4. Q1 · 6:17JAX +4% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on TEN-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:03JAX Touchdown

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 7
  2. Q2 · 2:47JAX Field goal

    (2:47) 10-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 10
  3. Q2 · 0:18JAX Field goal

    (:18) 10-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 13
  4. Q3 · 9:21JAX Touchdown

    (9:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 20
  5. Q3 · 3:30JAX Touchdown

    (3:30) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 0-C.Ridley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 27
  6. Q3 · 0:05TEN Touchdown

    (:05) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 27
  7. Q4 · 7:34JAX Touchdown

    (7:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 34
  8. Q4 · 4:34TEN Touchdown

    (4:34) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 98-J.Simmons for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 14 — JAX 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansJaguars
Offensive plays3669
Total yards237389 (edge)
Yards per play6.6 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.040.19 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)41%
Dropback rate56%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.210.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17-0.15 (edge)
Third downs2/74/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1021 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

24/32, 262 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

13/17, 158 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.0 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

14 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

7/9 for 103 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

4/5 for 59 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 255-52:38Punt
2JAXJAX 147193:03Punt
3TENTEN 134491:38Fumble
4JAXJAX 439484:43Touchdown +7
5TENTEN 2615308:59Punt
6JAXJAX 1111506:16Field goal +3
7TENTEN 21590:55Punt
8JAXJAX 2911601:34Field goal +3
9TENTEN 25200:14End of half
10JAXJAX 2711735:48Touchdown +7
11TENTEN 185142:21Punt
12JAXJAX 207803:29Touchdown +7
13TENTEN 257653:22Touchdown +7
14JAXJAX 25552:06Punt
15JAXTEN 3610365:26Touchdown +7
16TENTEN 257753:00Touchdown +7
17JAXTEN 469184:01Turnover on downs
18TENTEN 28100:27End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis13/171582023.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Moore13838.002.7
Derrick Henry10383.800.6
Tyjae Spears4143.50-0.7
Will Levis420.50-4.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins4559129%3.4
Chris Moore114906%3.0
Tyjae Spears2212012%-0.2
Kyle Philips111006%2.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine11706%0.7
Josh Whyle127012%-1.1
Derrick Henry126012%-0.0
Chigoziem Okonkwo126012%-0.8
Jeffery Simmons11216%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Monty Rice430.000
K'Von Wallace500.000
Kristian Fulton500.000
Elijah Molden320.000
Harold Landry230.000
Terrell Edmunds411.000
Azeez Al-Shaair320.001
Amani Hooker310.000
Jack Gibbens130.000
Roger McCreary310.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence24/3226220116.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne14523.70-2.7
Tank Bigsby9212.30-1.0
D'Ernest Johnson7202.90-2.7
Calvin Ridley11818.000.9
Trevor Lawrence5173.422.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Ridley79103229%9.4
Christian Kirk3648019%1.8
D'Ernest Johnson113403%5.1
Evan Engram4629019%0.9
Luke Farrell222106%1.2
Zay Jones4420013%-0.7
Travis Etienne337010%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd360.000
Foyesade Oluokun150.500
Andre Cisco140.500
Montaric Brown220.001
Andrew Wingard210.000
Travon Walker030.501
Josh Hines-Allen020.500
Darious Williams110.001
Folorunso Fatukasi110.000
Tre Herndon100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Closing total
40
TEN moneyline
+235
JAX moneyline
-290

Jaguars closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 40; the game landed 48 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
75°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
TEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.