For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

20

Los Angeles Chargers

10

BAL -3 ✓U 49 ✓Dome

Baltimore Ravens 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, BAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LACBAL
Q4 · 1:57BAL 13LAC 10LAC ball · 4th & 6BAL 76%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [10-A.Maulet]. PENALTY on LAC-10-J.Herbert, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:57BAL +15% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [10-A.Maulet]. PENALTY on LAC-10-J.Herbert, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.
  2. Q4 · 3:02BAL +13% win prob(3:02) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
  3. Q4 · 2:33LAC +10% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 82-A.Erickson ran ob at 50 for 17 yards.
  4. Q4 · 2:00BAL +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Ekeler (6-P.Queen).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:07LAC Field goal

    (9:07) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BAL 0LAC 3
  2. Q2 · 10:46BAL Touchdown

    (10:46) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7LAC 3
  3. Q2 · 1:16BAL Field goal

    (1:16) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 10LAC 3
  4. Q3 · 10:58BAL Field goal

    (10:58) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 13LAC 3
  5. Q4 · 8:36LAC Touchdown

    (8:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 7-G.Everett for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 13LAC 10
  6. Q4 · 1:44BAL Touchdown

    (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-Z.Flowers left end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 20LAC 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensChargers
Offensive plays6766
Total yards363 (edge)279
Yards per play5.4 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.30
Success rate49% (edge)36%
Dropback rate54%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.00
Third downs4/137/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

29/44, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/32, 177 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Keaton MitchellRB

9 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

14/16 for 106 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Gerald EverettTE

4/4 for 43 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 2513695:57Field goal +3
2BALBAL 259273:50Punt
3LACLAC 117103:11Punt
4BALBAL 2213886:21Touchdown +7
5LACLAC 205-11:43Punt
6BALBAL 389454:45Turnover on downs
7LACLAC 27270:40Fumble
8BALLAC 34542:21Field goal +3
9LACLAC 254220:46Fumble
10BALLAC 474-40:23Turnover on downs
11LACBAL 49100:03Interception
12BALBAL 2510454:07Field goal +3
13LACLAC 25590:56Punt
14BALBAL 1310553:42Punt
15LACLAC 1519718:44Fumble
16BALBAL 23451:08Punt
17LACLAC 408602:51Touchdown +7
18BALBAL 2510545:35Missed field goal
19LACLAC 346201:03Turnover on downs
20BALLAC 444440:18Touchdown +7
21LACLAC 256120:43Turnover on downs
22BALLAC 37200:53End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 88 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson18/32177102-3.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Keaton Mitchell9647.102.3
Lamar Jackson11393.50-3.2
Zay Flowers13737.014.5
Justice Hill5316.201.4
Gus Edwards8263.30-2.1
Devin Duvernay100.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Likely4640020%0.8
Odell Beckham3534017%0.9
Keaton Mitchell222507%2.0
Zay Flowers5825127%-3.4
Nelson Agholor122107%0.4
Rashod Bateman2521017%0.5
Gus Edwards111103%0.7
Justice Hill01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith530.001
Geno Stone430.000
Patrick Queen520.001
Brandon Stephens600.001
Kyle Hamilton320.001
Marcus Williams130.001
Michael Pierce220.000
Odafe Oweh200.000
Travis Jones020.500
Del'Shawn Phillips110.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert29/44217113-11.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert44711.80-0.3
Austin Ekeler10323.202.4
Joshua Kelley382.70-1.1
Derius Davis2-1-0.50-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen1416106039%-0.4
Gerald Everett4443110%5.9
Austin Ekeler5632015%-4.5
Alex Erickson131707%0.1
Quentin Johnston13707%-2.1
Joshua Kelley22605%-1.0
Jalen Guyton154012%-4.0
Derius Davis11202%-0.4
Stone Smartt01002%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alohi Gilman530.001
Deane Leonard700.000
Khalil Mack422.001
Eric Kendricks330.000
Derwin James420.000
Kenneth Murray410.000
Asante Samuel310.001
Essang Bassey120.001
Otito Ogbonnia210.000
Tuli Tuipulotu210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -3
Closing total
49
BAL moneyline
-170
LAC moneyline
+142

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 49; the game landed 30 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
BAL 10 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Brandon Staley