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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
BillsBuffalo34
BY 3final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia37
Buffalo Bills 34 at Philadelphia Eagles 37. Final.
Eagles -2.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 12
Philadelphia Eagles 37, Bills 34 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 5:56, 4th and 6, on Tyler Bass — 29.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:56 · 4th and 6
Tyler Bass
Eagles
(5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Philadelphia Eagles 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:56, Eagles +29.6% win probability on one snap.
29.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James BradberryEaglesQ4 12:52(12:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at BUF 29. 24-J.Bradberry to BUF 24 for 5 yards (66-C.McGovern).
23.9pts
Josh AllenBillsOT 8:06(8:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end pushed ob at PHI 45 for 15 yards (2-D.Slay).
22.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 13 of 22 on third down, against Eagles at 4 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Eagles at 9 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Bills205 of 218 plays carry both curves
(5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Swing +29.6 for EaglesExpected points −0.62 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 206
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:56BUF +30% win prob(5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4th · 12:52BUF +24% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at BUF 29. 24-J.Bradberry to BUF 24 for 5 yards (66-C.McGovern).
Overtime · 8:06PHI +22% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end pushed ob at PHI 45 for 15 yards (2-D.Slay).
4th · 0:25PHI +22% win prob(:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
4th · 11:18PHI +21% win prob(11:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 13-O.Zaccheaus for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 7:24PHI +21% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook to PHI 41 for 4 yards (7-H.Reddick). PENALTY on PHI-41-N.Morrow, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 41.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 12-yard rushing touchdown with 2:41 left in overtime put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:25Jake Elliott·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+331–31
Overtime5:56Tyler Bass·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+334–31
Overtime2:41Jalen Hurts·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+634–37
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryEagles
Bills6–2Eagles
506Total yards379
5.6Yards per play5.9
45%Success rate45%
59%Third-down rate36%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
12Explosive plays9
28First downs21
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.04Eagles: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Bills: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.08Eagles: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.03Eagles: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 91 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 64 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Eagles 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate, 7.0%, is past their previous low of 10.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 11.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles7.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 12.0 points below their season mean of 17.2% and 1.6 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%95 snaps
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%95 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%95 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%95 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%95 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%95 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time96%91 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time92%87 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Full-time80%76 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation61%58 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational44%42 snaps
4James CookRB · Rotational43%41 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational26%25 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational20%19 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Situational18%17 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Situational12%11 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational6%6 snaps
87Andy IsabellaWR · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Dane JacksonCBPoona FordDEGermain IfediGA.J. KleinOLBTaylor RappSSAlec AndersonTDeonte HartyWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Jake Elliott+31% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q4 0:25 · Eagles · 4th & 17 at BUF 41 · gained nothing · +2.15 EP · +31.2% win probability
203 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 218 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 203 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 212. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 78 yards from the PHI 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
218 of 218 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
218
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
883
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR70+0.1764%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0548%
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR18+0.1467%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR14+0.2414%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
218 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
218 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 33
Punt4 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Eagles 30
Bills0Eagles6
Bills0Eagles7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Bills 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
2nd quarter61 plays
Bills3Eagles7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Eagles 30
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Bills9Eagles7
Bills10Eagles7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 9
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 39
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 5 to the Bills 41
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 24
No good11 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Eagles 3
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 39
Bills16Eagles7
Bills17Eagles7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Eagles 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
No good8 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Eagles 30
Bills17Eagles13
Bills17Eagles14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Bills 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bills23Eagles14
Bills24Eagles14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Eagles 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bills 33
4th quarter52 plays
Bills24Eagles20
Bills24Eagles21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.8 seconds
Bills24Eagles27
Bills24Eagles28
Touchdown4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 35
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Bills30Eagles28
Bills31Eagles28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Eagles 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Bills31Eagles31
Field goal16 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bills 34
The period ended3 plays
Overtime25 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.9 seconds
Bills34Eagles31
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Eagles 22
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills34Eagles37
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bills 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
