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2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field

Buffalo Bills

34

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

37

PHI -2.5 ✓O 49 ✓

Philadelphia Eagles 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:56, BUF +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4PHI ↑BUF ↓
OT · 5:56BUF 34 — PHI 31BUF ball · 4th & 6BUF 88%

(5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 5:56BUF +30% win prob(5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  2. Q4 · 12:52BUF +24% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at BUF 29. 24-J.Bradberry to BUF 24 for 5 yards (66-C.McGovern).
  3. OT · 8:06PHI +22% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end pushed ob at PHI 45 for 15 yards (2-D.Slay).
  4. Q4 · 0:25PHI +22% win prob(:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:09PHI Touchdown

    (1:09) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 0 — PHI 7
  2. Q2 · 11:27BUF Field goal

    (11:27) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 3 — PHI 7
  3. Q2 · 8:40BUF Touchdown

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 10 — PHI 7
  4. Q2 · 0:21BUF Touchdown

    (:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 17 — PHI 7
  5. Q3 · 7:17PHI Touchdown

    (7:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 17 — PHI 14
  6. Q3 · 1:48BUF Touchdown

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-14-S.Diggs was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 24 — PHI 14
  7. Q4 · 13:42PHI Touchdown

    (13:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 24 — PHI 21
  8. Q4 · 11:18PHI Touchdown

    (11:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 13-O.Zaccheaus for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 24 — PHI 28
  9. Q4 · 1:55BUF Touchdown

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 31 — PHI 28
  10. Q4 · 0:25PHI Field goal

    (:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: BUF 31 — PHI 31
  11. OT · 5:56BUF Field goal

    (5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 34 — PHI 31
  12. OT · 2:41PHI Touchdown

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BUF 34 — PHI 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsEagles
Offensive plays9164
Total yards506 (edge)379
Yards per play5.65.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)0.04
Success rate45%45% (edge)
Dropback rate63%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06-0.03 (edge)
Third downs13/22 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)9
First downs gained on snaps28 (edge)21
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

29/51, 339 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.7 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

18/31, 200 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

0.1 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 81 yds, 2 TD

15.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

7/8 for 106 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

6/12 for 105 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 25581:52Punt
2PHIPHI 18400:35Punt
3BUFBUF 3213385:56Punt
4PHIPHI 2711665:31Touchdown +7
5BUFBUF 2512454:43Field goal +3
6PHIPHI 25300:13Interception
7BUFPHI 295392:36Touchdown +7
8PHIPHI 256141:49Punt
9BUFBUF 57362:25Punt
10PHIPHI 19452:10Punt
11BUFBUF 339640:46Missed field goal
12PHIPHI 243150:20Fumble
13BUFPHI 366460:52Touchdown +7
14PHIPHI 25200:12End of half
15PHIPHI 255-41:31Punt
16BUFBUF 318392:57Missed field goal
17PHIPHI 387623:19Touchdown +7
18BUFBUF 3011705:33Touchdown +7
19PHIPHI 259753:03Touchdown +7
20BUFBUF 25320:51Interception
21PHIBUF 244241:39Touchdown +7
22BUFBUF 25672:17Punt
23PHIPHI 32431:44Punt
24BUFBUF 2611745:14Touchdown +7
25PHIPHI 2510441:32Field goal +3
26BUFBUF 25200:20Turnover on downs
27BUFBUF 2513384:08Field goal +3
28PHIPHI 2510753:15Touchdown +6

12 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen29/513392117.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen9819.0215.2
James Cook16432.70-4.2
Latavius Murray9303.30-2.6
Ty Johnson6193.20-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Gabe Davis612105124%5.8
Stefon Diggs61174122%-0.6
James Cook6757014%3.9
Khalil Shakir3547010%3.2
Dalton Kincaid5638012%0.7
Latavius Murray3518010%0.8
Trent Sherfield03006%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Taron Johnson510.000
Micah Hyde600.000
Ed Oliver320.000
Terrel Bernard320.011
Jordan Poyer410.001
Rasul Douglas500.000
Gregory Rousseau310.000
Tyrel Dodson310.001
Christian Benford210.000
Tim Settle101.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts18/312003120.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift14805.700.4
Jalen Hurts14654.620.4
Kenneth Gainwell22613.001.2
Boston Scott2147.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeVonta Smith78106129%8.0
A.J. Brown5937132%-0.8
Olamide Zaccheaus112914%4.5
Jack Stoll121407%-3.0
Kenneth Gainwell2310011%-1.1
D'Andre Swift11404%0.2
Boston Scott01004%-0.4
Julio Jones130011%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kevin Byard750.000
Reed Blankenship830.000
Nicholas Morrow650.001
Zach Cunningham630.000
Christian Elliss520.000
Jordan Davis140.000
Jalen Carter310.000
Darius Slay310.002
Haason Reddick210.000
Bradley Roby300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Closing total
49
BUF moneyline
+124
PHI moneyline
-148

Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 49; the game landed 71 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
47°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
BUF 7 days · PHI 6 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Nick Sirianni