2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Nissan Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -3.5 ✓U 36 ✓Titans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Tennessee Titans 17–10. Biggest swing: Q2 3:12, CAR +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:12CAR 3 — TEN 7CAR ball · 1st & 15TEN 67%

(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 17 for -8 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at CAR 17. 98-J.Simmons to CAR 15 for 2 yards (79-I.Ekwonu).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:12CAR +16% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 17 for -8 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at CAR 17. 98-J.Simmons to CAR 15 for 2 yards (79-I.Ekwonu).
Q3 · 8:09TEN +10% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:16TEN +7% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 84-S.Sullivan to TEN 24 for 13 yards (35-K.Wallace). Tennessee challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q1 · 13:14TEN +7% win prob(13:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-J.Mingo pushed ob at CAR 42 for 22 yards (37-A.Hooker).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 0:40TEN Touchdown
(:40) 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — TEN 7
Q2 · 8:56CAR Field goal
(8:56) 4-E.Pineiro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — TEN 7
Q2 · 2:32TEN Touchdown
(2:32) 22-D.Henry left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — TEN 14
Q2 · 0:03TEN Field goal
(:03) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — TEN 17
Q3 · 8:09CAR Touchdown
(8:09) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — TEN 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Titans
Offensive plays	67	49
Total yards	258	267 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	34%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	-0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

18/31, 194 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.9 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

18/28, 185 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.1 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 76 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

14 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Jonathan MingoWR

4/6 for 60 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

3/5 for 49 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 20	6	20	1:46	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 20	5	23	3:04	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 9	16	96	9:36	Touchdown +7
4	CAR	CAR 21	15	52	6:43	Field goal +3
5	TEN	TEN 32	5	-7	2:19	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 4	7	18	3:26	Fumble
7	TEN	CAR 15	3	15	0:39	Touchdown +7
8	CAR	CAR 20	5	6	0:48	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 33	4	6	0:49	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 10	4	8	0:22	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 38	5	27	0:28	Field goal +3
12	CAR	CAR 33	13	48	6:54	Touchdown +7
13	TEN	TEN 21	6	22	2:46	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 12	10	30	4:56	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 20	5	25	1:24	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 11	6	20	2:27	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 26	5	27	1:32	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 9	9	49	4:07	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 16	8	36	2:57	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 20	4	4	1:02	Turnover on downs
21	TEN	CAR 24	3	0	1:55	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 96 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	18/31	194	0	0	4	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	14	45	3.2	1	-1.3
Miles Sanders	15	28	1.9	0	-6.6
Bryce Young	3	23	7.7	0	3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jonathan Mingo	4	6	60	25%	2.9
Chuba Hubbard	5	5	47	21%	3.0
D.J. Chark	3	4	34	17%	1.2
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	1	1	14	4%	0.9
Stephen Sullivan	1	1	13	4%	3.2
Ian Thomas	1	1	9	4%	0.9
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	8	4%	0.5
Tommy Tremble	1	1	7	4%	0.2
Adam Thielen	1	3	2	13%	-1.8
Miles Sanders	0	1	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Long	3	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	3	0.0	1
Donte Jackson	3	1	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	2	1.0	1
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	2	0.0	0
Troy Hill	3	0	0.0	1
Vonn Bell	1	2	0.0	0
Jammie Robinson	2	0	0.0	0
D'Shawn Jamison	2	0	0.0	0
Deion Jones	1	1	0.0	1

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Will Levis	18/28	185	0	0	1	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	76	4.2	2	3.6
Tyjae Spears	2	6	3.0	0	-0.5
Chris Moore	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7
Will Levis	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	3	5	49	19%	1.1
Chigoziem Okonkwo	4	5	45	19%	2.1
Chris Moore	3	4	41	15%	1.9
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	4	5	41	19%	2.6
Josh Whyle	1	1	11	4%	0.7
Tyjae Spears	1	3	1	11%	-3.6
Derrick Henry	1	2	0	7%	-1.6
Kyle Philips	1	2	-3	7%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Amani Hooker	8	3	0.0	0
K'Von Wallace	6	1	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	3	2	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	4	0	1.0	0
Rashad Weaver	2	2	0.0	0
Elijah Molden	3	1	0.0	0
Monty Rice	1	3	0.0	0
Roger McCreary	3	1	0.0	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	1	0.0	1
Denico Autry	3	0	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -3.5
Closing total: 36
CAR moneyline: +145
TEN moneyline: -175

Titans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 36; the game landed 27 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CAR 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Vrabel