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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q2 3:12, 1st and 15, on Bryce Young — 15.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:12 · 1st and 15
Bryce Young
Titans
(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 17 for -8 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at CAR 17. 98-J.Simmons to CAR 15 for 2 yards (79-I.Ekwonu).
Tennessee Titans 17–10. Biggest swing: Q2 3:12, Titans +15.5% win probability on one snap.
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 16 on third down, against Titans at 2 of 10 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 1 giveaway.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 17 for -8 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at CAR 17. 98-J.Simmons to CAR 15 for 2 yards (79-I.Ekwonu).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:40 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 67 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Titans’s 49 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Titans 2.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's play-action rate, 26.3%, is past their previous high of 20.9% in week 5 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −12.1 pts in week 11 against −0.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 11 against 50.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-10.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 67 snaps
Titans-0.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 83%
Tendencies room →Panthers50.0%right on their number · −5.0 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 48 early downs
Titans47.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 53%
Tendencies room →Panthers26.3%leaned — faked the run · +12.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Titans25.0%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Panthers50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Titans25.0%right on their number · −12.6 vs their 37.6%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers25.0%right on their number · −5.9 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans21.1%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Panthers14.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans15.8%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
CAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 26.3%, 12.8 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 1.6 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
18/31, 194 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.9 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
18/28, 185 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.1 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Chuba Hubbard banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.6 | +3.2 | 64% | 52% | 7% | 0% | 18 car, 76 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 0 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 20.2 | +5.0 | 64% | 71% | 21% | 2% | 14 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 47 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | +2.0 | 92% | 82% | 25% | 32% | 4/6, 60 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 8.5 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Featured Receiver | 8.1 | +0.9 | 75% | 76% | 19% | 21% | 4/5, 41 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 8.1 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/31, 194 yd · 3 car, 23 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | +0.8 | 57% | 79% | 19% | 29% | 3/5, 49 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.6 | 66% | 76% | 15% | 28% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/4, 41 yd |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/28, 185 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +0.8 | 74% | 74% | 17% | 18% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 2.8 | −5.1 | 36% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 15 car, 28 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.7 | 27% | 39% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.4 | 38% | 31% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 34% | 26% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 72% | 47% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 1.7 | −3.1 | 40% | 52% | 11% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/3, 1 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.0 | 89% | 87% | 13% | 15% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −2.1 | 23% | 31% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, -3 yd |
| Colton DowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 17 for -8 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at CAR 17. 98-J.Simmons to CAR 15 for 2 yards (79-I.Ekwonu).
Q2 3:12 · Panthers · 1st & 15 at CAR 25 · lost 8 · -5.32 EP · −12.5% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 91 yards from the TEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Titans6Panthers0Titans7Panthers3Titans7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Panthers3Titans13Panthers3Titans14Panthers3Titans17Panthers9Titans17Panthers10Titans17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/31 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 | −6.6 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Mingo | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 25% | +2.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 21% | +3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donte Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 18/28 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_CAR_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 36; the game landed 27 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| D.J. Chark | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 17% | +1.2 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +3.2 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13% | −1.8 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vonn Bell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jammie Robinson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Shawn Jamison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |
| 76 |
| 4.2 |
| 2 |
| +3.6 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Will Levis | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 19% | +1.1 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 19% | +2.1 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 15% | +1.9 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 19% | +2.6 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11% | −3.6 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.6 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 7% | −2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Hooker | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Weaver | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Monty Rice | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
