For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2023 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 27, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago12
BY 2final margin
VikingsMinnesota10
Chicago Bears 12 at Minnesota Vikings 10. Final.
Vikings -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 12
Chicago Bears 12, Vikings 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:06, 3rd and 10, on D.J. Moore — 35.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:06 · 3rd and 10
D.J. Moore
Bears
(1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).
Dome
Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 12–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:06, Bears +35.2% win probability on one snap.
35.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cairo SantosBearsQ4 0:13(:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
20.2pts
K.J. OsbornBearsQ4 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn to CHI 43 for 23 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 57-J.Sanborn). FUMBLES (49-T.Edmunds), recovered by MIN-2-A.Mattison at CHI 44. 2-A.Mattison to CHI 40 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), recovered by MIN-17-K.Osborn at CHI 45. 17-K.Osborn to CHI 48 for -3 yards. Lateral to 3-J.Addison to MIN 46 for -6 yards. Lateral to 15-J.Dobbs to CHI 49 for 5 yards. PENALTY on MIN-15-J.Dobbs, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 49.
18.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Bears won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.51 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 2 giveaways, against Vikings at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 9 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears149 of 159 plays carry both curves
(1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).
Swing −35.2 for VikingsExpected points −3.37 for VikingsThe model had Bears 4 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:06MIN +35% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).
4th · 0:13MIN +20% win prob(:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
4th · 0:05CHI +19% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn to CHI 43 for 23 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 57-J.Sanborn). FUMBLES (49-T.Edmunds), recovered by MIN-2-A.Mattison at CHI 44. 2-A.Mattison to CHI 40 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), recovered by MIN-17-K.Osborn at CHI 45. 17-K.Osborn to CHI 48 for -3 yards. Lateral to 3-J.Addison to MIN 46 for -6 yards. Lateral to 15-J.Dobbs to CHI 49 for 5 yards. PENALTY on MIN-15-J.Dobbs, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 49.
4th · 12:39CHI +16% win prob(12:39) (No Huddle) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle intended for 30-C.Ham INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon (93-Ju.Jones) [95-D.Walker] at MIN 38. 6-K.Gordon to MIN 38 for no gain (30-C.Ham).
4th · 3:36CHI +13% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to CHI 42 for 6 yards (44-J.Metellus). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-54-A.Barr at CHI 43. Penalty on CHI-64-N.Davis, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 30-yard field goal with 0:13 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd13:37Cairo Santos·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+33–0
2nd0:04Greg Joseph·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–3
3rd7:03Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+36–3
4th14:20Cairo Santos·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+39–3
4th0:13Cairo Santos·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+312–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears7–2Vikings
321Total yards242
4.9Yards per play4.7
37%Success rate29%
47%Third-down rate22%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
18First downs11
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers4
The read
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.51Vikings: −0.51 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Bears: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.66Vikings: −0.66 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.16Vikings: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 65 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Vikings’s 51 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Vikings 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's sack or hit rate, 22.2%, is past their previous high of 20.5% in week 11 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, +1.3 pts, is past their previous high of −0.6 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 11.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.2% in week 11 against 59.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Vikings13.6%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteMIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 16.7%, 12.9 points below their season mean of 29.6% and 1.7 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass+36% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).
Q4 1:06 · Bears · 3rd & 10 at MIN 49 · gained 36 · +3.37 EP · +35.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 77 yards from the MIN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
33%
Yards
559
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0675%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.7482%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.4450%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0225%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1117%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2640%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter28 plays
No good15 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Vikings 24
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Vikings 38
2nd quarter47 plays
Bears3Vikings0
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 37
Punt5 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 49
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 47
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 35
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 44
Bears3Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Bears 13
3rd quarter32 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 49
Bears6Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Vikings 21
Intercepted10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Vikings 39
4th quarter52 plays
Bears9Vikings3
Field goal3 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 36
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears9Vikings9
Bears9Vikings10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Bears 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 40
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Bears12Vikings10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Vikings 8
How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and eight backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxOne defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -3
Closing total
43.5
Bears moneyline
+140
Vikings moneyline
-166
Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 22 — under by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Bears 8 days · Vikings 8 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kevin O'Connell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 5:58
MIN +12% win prob
(5:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:22MIN +12% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 85-C.Kmet to MIN 14 for 24 yards (25-Th.Jackson).
4th · 9:53CHI +9% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at MIN 26 for -4 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], RECOVERED by MIN-52-S.Day at MIN 23.
