2023 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 27, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 12–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:06, MIN +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:06CHI 9 — MIN 10CHI ball · 3rd & 10MIN 67%

(1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:06MIN +35% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).
Q4 · 0:13MIN +20% win prob(:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q4 · 0:05CHI +19% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn to CHI 43 for 23 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 57-J.Sanborn). FUMBLES (49-T.Edmunds), recovered by MIN-2-A.Mattison at CHI 44. 2-A.Mattison to CHI 40 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), recovered by MIN-17-K.Osborn at CHI 45. 17-K.Osborn to CHI 48 for -3 yards. Lateral to 3-J.Addison to MIN 46 for -6 yards. Lateral to 15-J.Dobbs to CHI 49 for 5 yards. PENALTY on MIN-15-J.Dobbs, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 49.
Q4 · 12:39CHI +16% win prob(12:39) (No Huddle) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle intended for 30-C.Ham INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon (93-Ju.Jones) [95-D.Walker] at MIN 38. 6-K.Gordon to MIN 38 for no gain (30-C.Ham).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 13:37CHI Field goal
(13:37) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.
Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 0
Q2 · 0:04MIN Field goal
(:04) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 3
Q3 · 7:03CHI Field goal
(7:03) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 6 — MIN 3
Q4 · 14:20CHI Field goal
(14:20) 8-C.Santos 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 9 — MIN 3
Q4 · 5:58MIN Touchdown
(5:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 9 — MIN 10
Q4 · 0:13CHI Field goal
(:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 12 — MIN 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Vikings
Offensive plays	65	51
Total yards	321 (edge)	242
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.12 (edge)	-0.51
Success rate	37% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	68%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.66
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

27/37, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.6 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Joshua DobbsQB

22/32, 185 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-23.8 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

12 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

10 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

11/13 for 114 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

5/6 for 50 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 23	15	47	9:07	Missed field goal
2	MIN	MIN 38	4	-7	1:39	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 26	10	72	5:39	Field goal +3
4	MIN	MIN 25	5	10	2:04	Interception
5	CHI	CHI 48	4	1	1:00	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 12	6	17	3:03	Interception
7	CHI	CHI 35	5	12	2:22	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 31	4	4	1:36	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 18	5	26	1:39	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 20	7	52	1:51	Field goal +3
11	MIN	MIN 25	6	30	2:53	Turnover on downs
12	CHI	CHI 45	10	34	5:08	Field goal +3
13	MIN	MIN 25	9	26	4:20	Interception
14	CHI	CHI 31	8	32	3:24	Field goal +3
15	MIN	MIN 25	5	11	1:43	Interception
16	CHI	MIN 38	5	15	2:46	Fumble
17	MIN	MIN 23	9	77	3:52	Touchdown +7
18	CHI	CHI 25	6	17	2:26	Fumble
19	MIN	CHI 43	4	0	0:59	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 22	10	65	2:19	Field goal +3
21	MIN	MIN 34	2	22	0:10	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	27/37	217	0	0	3	-5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Fields	12	59	4.9	-3.9
Roschon Johnson	10	35	3.5	-1.4
Khalil Herbert	6	24	4.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	11	13	114	41%	3.4
Cole Kmet	7	7	43	22%	4.2
Roschon Johnson	5	5	40	16%	-0.1
Khalil Herbert	2	2	14	6%	0.1
Darnell Mooney	2	3	6	9%	-0.8
Trent Taylor	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Robert Tonyan	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terell Smith	8	0	0.0	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	5	2	0.0	0	0
T.J. Edwards	6	0	0.0	1	1
Kyler Gordon	4	0	0.0	1	1
Montez Sweat	2	1	1.5	0	0
Jaquan Brisker	2	1	0.5	1	1
Jaylon Johnson	2	0	0.0	1	3
Jack Sanborn	1	1	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	1	0	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	1	0	0.0	0	1

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	22/32	185	1	4	2	-23.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	10	52	5.2	-0.4
Joshua Dobbs	2	11	5.5	0.1
Ty Chandler	4	8	2.0	-1.6
Brandon Powell	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	5	6	50	1	20%	-2.0
Brandon Powell	3	3	45	0	10%	1.5
Jordan Addison	6	10	39	0	33%	-6.8
K.J. Osborn	3	4	34	0	13%	-1.7
Alexander Mattison	2	2	11	0	7%	-0.1
Ty Chandler	1	2	3	0	7%	-2.2
C.J. Ham	2	3	3	0	10%	-6.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Metellus	5	4	0.5	0
Ivan Pace	6	2	1.0	0
Danielle Hunter	5	3	1.5	0
Camryn Bynum	5	2	0.0	0
Mekhi Blackmon	6	0	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	4	2	0.0	1
D.J. Wonnum	3	2	0.0	2
Harrison Phillips	2	2	0.0	0
Sheldon Day	2	1	0.0	0
K.J. Osborn	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 43.5
CHI moneyline: +140
MIN moneyline: -166

Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 22 — under by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CHI 8 days · MIN 8 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.