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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
BrownsCleveland12
BY 17final margin
BroncosDenver29
Cleveland Browns 12 at Denver Broncos 29. Final.
Broncos -1.5 ✓O 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 12
Denver Broncos 29, Browns 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 7 — 17.5 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-E.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, touched at CLE 31, RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at CLE 20.
17.5
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Denver Broncos 29–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Broncos +17.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonBroncosQ1 10:18(10:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on CLE-0-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
10.4pts
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ1 8:59(8:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at CLE 3 for 31 yards (33-R.Hickman).
10.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Broncos won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 2 of 13 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.28 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Browns175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-E.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, touched at CLE 31, RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at CLE 20.
Swing +17.5 for BroncosExpected points +6.15 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 3 points higher than the market did.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00CLE +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-E.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, touched at CLE 31, RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at CLE 20.
1st · 10:18DEN +10% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on CLE-0-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
1st · 8:59DEN +10% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at CLE 3 for 31 yards (33-R.Hickman).
3rd · 6:46DEN +9% win prob(6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:50CLE +7% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper (6-P.Locke).
3rd · 0:22DEN +7% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right. CLE-17-D.Thompson-Robinson was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-56-B.Browning, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 23 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Samaje Perine's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 8:18 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:18Samaje Perine·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
3rd1:28Wil Lutz·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+312–17
4th13:37Adam Trautman·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+712–24
4th4:23Wil Lutz·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+312–27
4th2:24Z.Allen and·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+212–29
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBroncos
Browns0–8Broncos
270Total yards298
3.9Yards per play5.1
36%Success rate41%
15%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
17First downs17
4Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Browns: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.03Broncos: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Browns: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Browns: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Broncos’s 58 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Broncos 6.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 12.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.7 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.4 pts in week 11 against −9.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 2.7% in week 11 against 24.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Broncos14.6%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 63.2 points above their season mean of 36.8% and 2.5 times their own 25.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
79Dawand JonesT · Every snap100%73 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%73 snaps
64Geron ChristianT · Every snap99%72 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Full-time89%65 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Full-time86%63 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Full-time85%62 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
17Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
10P.J. WalkerQB · Rotational29%21 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational26%19 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Situational19%14 snaps
18David BellWR · Situational18%13 snaps
84Jordan AkinsTE · Situational14%10 snaps
68Michael DunnG · Situational10%7 snaps
53Nick HarrisC · Situational7%5 snaps
20Pierre StrongRB · Situational3%2 snaps
66James HudsonT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Luke WyplerCDenzel WardCBIsaiah McGuireDESiaki IkaDTAnthony WalkerMLBLeroy WatsonTMarquise GoodwinWR
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%67 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%67 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%67 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%67 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Full-time91%61 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation61%41 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Rotational48%32 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational40%27 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational30%20 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational27%18 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational24%16 snaps
45Nate AdkinsTE · Situational10%7 snaps
87David SillsWR · Situational7%5 snaps
31Justin SimmonsFS · Situational6%4 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational4%3 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Alex ForsythCRonnie PerkinsDEElijah GarciaDEThomas IncoomOLBDwayne WashingtonRBJ.L. SkinnerSS
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Dunn reported+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 6:46 · Browns · 4th & goal at DEN 2 · gained 2 · +3.86 EP · +14.4% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
563
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.3574%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2543%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.1230%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0160%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 28
Browns0Broncos6
Browns0Broncos7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Browns 3
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 49
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Browns 42
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 37
2nd quarter48 plays
Browns0Broncos13
Browns0Broncos14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 2
Browns3Broncos14
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 17
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
Browns6Broncos14
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Broncos 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Browns12Broncos14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Broncos 2
Browns12Broncos17
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Browns 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 38
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Browns12Broncos23
Browns12Broncos24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 8
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 39
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Broncos 29
Browns12Broncos27
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Browns 16
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 42
The period ended7 plays
Browns12Broncos29
The period ended7 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
