2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Cleveland Browns

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -1.5 ✓O 37.5 ✓Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Denver Broncos 29–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, CLE +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00CLE 12 — DEN 17CLE ball · 2nd & 7DEN 69%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-E.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, touched at CLE 31, RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at CLE 20.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00CLE +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-E.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, touched at CLE 31, RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at CLE 20.
Q1 · 10:18DEN +10% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on CLE-0-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
Q1 · 8:59DEN +10% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at CLE 3 for 31 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q3 · 6:46DEN +9% win prob(6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:18DEN Touchdown
(8:18) (Shotgun) 25-S.Perine up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — DEN 7
Q2 · 11:14DEN Touchdown
(11:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — DEN 14
Q2 · 6:02CLE Field goal
(6:02) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 3 — DEN 14
Q2 · 0:25CLE Field goal
(:25) 7-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 6 — DEN 14
Q3 · 6:46CLE Touchdown
(6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 12 — DEN 14
Q3 · 1:28DEN Field goal
(1:28) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: CLE 12 — DEN 17
Q4 · 13:37DEN Touchdown
(13:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 82-A.Trautman. Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 82-A.Trautman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 12 — DEN 24
Q4 · 4:23DEN Field goal
(4:23) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: CLE 12 — DEN 27
Q4 · 2:24DEN Safety
(2:24) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (sack split by 99-Z.Allen and 42-N.Bonitto).
Score after this play: CLE 12 — DEN 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Broncos
Offensive plays	70	58
Total yards	270	298 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	36%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB

14/29, 134 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.9 expected points added · -11.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

13/22, 134 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

9 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

18 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-6.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

3/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

6/9 for 59 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	5	3	1:25	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 20	10	44	5:21	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 25	7	28	3:37	Fumble
4	DEN	50	4	13	1:37	Fumble
5	CLE	CLE 34	4	3	0:57	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 20	14	82	5:52	Touchdown +7
7	CLE	CLE 25	14	58	5:12	Field goal +3
8	DEN	DEN 25	7	29	2:55	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 27	11	67	2:42	Field goal +3
10	DEN	DEN 25	2	0	0:22	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 25	5	6	1:54	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 21	14	73	6:24	Touchdown +6
13	DEN	DEN 25	10	65	5:17	Field goal +3
14	CLE	CLE 25	5	6	1:31	Fumble
15	DEN	CLE 20	5	20	1:25	Touchdown +7
16	CLE	CLE 25	5	0	1:32	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 36	4	3	1:50	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 23	6	20	1:43	Fumble
19	DEN	DEN 42	7	42	4:05	Field goal +3
20	CLE	CLE 25	7	17	1:26	Turnover on downs
21	DEN	CLE 41	4	-6	0:21	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 5	3	-5	0:13	Safety
23	DEN	DEN 25	5	0	1:49	Punt
24	CLE	CLE 33	1	0	0:30	End of game

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	14/29	134	1	0	0	-0.9
P.J. Walker	6/13	56	0	0	4	-11.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jerome Ford	9	65	7.2	2.8
Kareem Hunt	7	22	3.1	-0.0
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	5	21	4.2	-0.7
Elijah Moore	1	0	0.0	-6.2
Harrison Bryant	1	0	0.0	-3.3
P.J. Walker	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	6	9	59	0	23%	-1.3
Cedric Tillman	4	5	55	0	13%	1.6
Elijah Moore	3	9	44	0	23%	-0.6
Amari Cooper	2	6	16	0	15%	-2.2
Jerome Ford	4	7	14	0	18%	-3.2
Harrison Bryant	1	1	2	1	3%	3.9
David Bell	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	4	5	1.0	0
Greg Newsome	5	2	0.0	1
Juan Thornhill	4	0	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	1	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	3	1	0.0	0
Tony Fields	2	2	0.0	0
Mike Ford	2	2	0.0	0
A.J. Green	1	0	0.0	0
Jordan Elliott	1	0	0.0	0
Martin Emerson	1	0	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	13/22	134	1	0	1	4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	18	65	3.6	0	-6.4
Samaje Perine	7	55	7.9	1	1.9
Russell Wilson	11	34	3.1	1	-1.6
Marvin Mims	1	11	11.0	0	0.5
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	4	2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	3	6	61	0	29%	3.5
Marvin Mims	2	3	24	0	14%	2.5
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	13	0	5%	1.3
Samaje Perine	1	1	11	0	5%	-0.2
Jerry Jeudy	2	3	11	0	14%	-0.4
Adam Trautman	1	1	8	1	5%	3.0
Javonte Williams	3	6	6	0	29%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	4	6	0.0	1
P.J. Locke	5	2	1.0	1
Ja'Quan McMillian	3	2	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	2	2	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	3	1	0.0	0
Jonathon Cooper	2	1	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	1	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	1	1	1.0	0
Baron Browning	1	1	0.0	0
Nik Bonitto	1	1	1.5	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1.5
Closing total: 37.5
CLE moneyline: +105
DEN moneyline: -125

Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 41 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CLE 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Sean Payton