2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · Ford Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

Detroit Lions

DET -8.5 upsetO 47 ✓DomeLions closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 29–22. Biggest swing: Q1 2:23, GB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:23GB 20 — DET 6DET ball · 2nd & 12DET 53%

(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-34-J.Owens at DET 27. 34-J.Owens for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble rul

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:23GB +13% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-34-J.Owens at DET 27. 34-J.Owens for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 3:13DET +11% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:36DET +9% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:01GB +8% win prob(:01) 17-A.Carlson 63 yard field goal is No Good, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. 11-K.Raymond at DET -9 to DET 41 for 50 yards (93-T.Slaton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:21GB Touchdown
(12:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 7 — DET 0
Q1 · 8:34DET Touchdown
(8:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: GB 7 — DET 6
Q1 · 3:13GB Touchdown
(3:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 14 — DET 6
Q1 · 2:23GB Touchdown
(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-34-J.Owens at DET 27. 34-J.Owens for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Score after this play: GB 20 — DET 6
Q2 · 6:00GB Field goal
(6:00) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: GB 23 — DET 6
Q3 · 11:52DET Touchdown
(11:52) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: GB 23 — DET 14
Q3 · 3:36GB Touchdown
(3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: GB 29 — DET 14
Q4 · 0:46DET Touchdown
(:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-K.Brooks]. Penalty on GB-91-P.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: GB 29 — DET 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Lions
Offensive plays	54	79
Total yards	377	466 (edge)
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	46% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	63%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Lions outgained Packers 466–377 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

29/44, 332 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-4.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

22/32, 268 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

12.8 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

15 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

11 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

9/11 for 95 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

5/7 for 94 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	7	75	2:44	Touchdown +7
2	DET	DET 27	9	57	3:46	Touchdown +6
3	GB	GB 25	12	75	5:22	Touchdown +7
4	DET	DET 25	3	3	0:56	Defensive touchdown
5	DET	DET 16	4	7	0:52	Fumble
6	GB	DET 23	4	9	1:25	Turnover on downs
7	DET	DET 14	9	34	4:17	Punt
8	GB	GB 14	9	57	4:42	Field goal +3
9	DET	DET 27	10	45	3:58	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 35	6	20	1:23	Punt
11	DET	DET 16	4	0	0:30	Punt
12	GB	GB 44	2	11	0:05	Missed field goal
13	DET	DET 28	8	82	3:14	Touchdown +8
14	GB	GB 25	8	33	4:05	Punt
15	DET	DET 3	6	20	2:14	Turnover on downs
16	GB	DET 23	4	33	1:57	Touchdown +6
17	DET	DET 25	12	36	4:58	Fumble
18	GB	GB 39	6	18	1:40	Punt
19	DET	DET 9	10	79	5:06	Turnover on downs
20	GB	GB 12	7	46	4:00	Punt
21	DET	DET 9	13	103	2:05	Touchdown +8
22	GB	DET 43	2	0	0:41	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 103 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	22/32	268	3	0	0	12.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
A.J. Dillon	14	43	3.1	-6.8
Jordan Love	3	39	13.0	-0.4
Jayden Reed	2	16	8.0	0.6
Patrick Taylor	3	11	3.7	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Watson	5	7	94	1	23%	6.3
Malik Heath	4	4	46	0	13%	3.4
A.J. Dillon	3	3	38	0	10%	2.2
Romeo Doubs	3	4	37	0	13%	1.1
Jayden Reed	4	8	34	1	27%	-0.2
Tucker Kraft	2	2	15	1	7%	2.1
Patrick Taylor	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0
Ben Sims	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Owens	8	4	0.0	0
Isaiah McDuffie	4	6	0.0	0
Anthony Johnson	7	1	0.0	1
Corey Ballentine	6	1	0.0	0
Rashan Gary	4	2	3.0	0
Carrington Valentine	4	0	0.0	0
Preston Smith	0	4	0.0	1
Keisean Nixon	3	1	0.0	0
Quay Walker	3	1	0.0	0
Tedarrell Slaton	1	1	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	29/44	332	2	0	3	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	15	71	4.7	1	2.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	11	54	4.9	0	-0.9
Jared Goff	3	9	3.0	0	-5.3
Kalif Raymond	1	6	6.0	0	0.3
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	1	0	0.0	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	9	11	95	0	26%	2.1
Kalif Raymond	5	5	90	0	12%	7.8
Jameson Williams	2	3	51	0	7%	4.6
Sam LaPorta	5	8	47	1	19%	-1.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	4	8	19	0	19%	-1.9
Josh Reynolds	2	4	15	1	10%	-1.6
Brock Wright	1	1	9	0	2%	-0.1
Malcolm Rodriguez	1	1	6	0	2%	0.1
David Montgomery	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Brian Branch	2	5	1
Jerry Jacobs	6	0	0
Derrick Barnes	2	4	0
Alex Anzalone	4	2	0
Tracy Walker III	5	1	0
Jack Campbell	2	1	0
Kerby Joseph	3	0	0
Aidan Hutchinson	1	1	0
Cameron Sutton	1	1	0
Levi Onwuzurike	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -8.5
Closing total: 47
GB moneyline: +330
DET moneyline: -425

Lions closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 51 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: GB 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.