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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q1 2:23, 2nd and 12, on Jared Goff — 13.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:23 · 2nd and 12
Jared Goff
Packers
(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-34-J.Owens at DET 27. 34-J.Owens for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Green Bay Packers 29–22. Biggest swing: Q1 2:23, Packers +13.2% win probability on one snap.
13.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-34-J.Owens at DET 27. 34-J.Owens for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble rul
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jayden Reed's 10-yard touchdown catch with 12:21 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jayden Reed10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+77–0
Sam LaPorta7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Goff · kick no good, wide right+67–6
Jonathan Owens27-yd defence TD27-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+620–6
Christian Watson16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Love · two-point no good+629–148 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Lions’s 79 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Lions 4.
Lions outgained Packers 466-377 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected, +12.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
GB's sack or hit rate, 23.5%, is past their previous high of 20.5% in week 8 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Packers12.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.0 vs their 0.4 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 53 snaps
Lions-8.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers56.1%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 41 early downs
Lions59.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Packers23.5%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Lions19.6%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Packers33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Lions75.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.6 vs their 59.4%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 63%
Tendencies room →Packers15.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Lions38.2%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Packers23.5%leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Lions11.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
GB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.4 pts, 12.0 points above their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
29/44, 332 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Passing · GB
22/32, 268 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
12.8 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
9/11 for 95 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jordan Love banked 9.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 26.6 | +9.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/32, 268 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 39 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 20.4 | +5.1 | 88% | 88% | 23% | 46% | 5/7, 94 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.5 | +1.2 | 92% | 88% | 26% | 31% | 9/11, 95 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 18.2 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/44, 332 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 9 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 17.7 | +0.8 | 87% | 82% | 19% | 20% | 5/8, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 15.1 | +5.6 | 27% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 15 car, 71 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −0.1 | 73% | 76% | 27% | 21% | 2 car, 16 yd · 4/8, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.6 | +5.9 | 29% | 31% | 12% | 16% | 1 car, 6 yd · 5/5, 90 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 11.3 | −6.0 | 71% | 80% | 19% | 5% | 11 car, 54 yd · 4/8, 19 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.1 | −1.0 | 52% | 35% | 10% | 2% | 14 car, 43 yd · 3/3, 38 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +3.8 | 64% | 69% | 10% | 4% | 2/4, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +5.6 | 96% | 97% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +1.3 | 20% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 4/4, 46 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.3 | 63% | 61% | 7% | 16% | 2/3, 51 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −1.7 | 86% | 85% | 13% | 13% | 3/4, 37 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 2.5 | −0.3 | 48% | 62% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 33% | 25% | 2% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 10% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ben SimsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 25% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to DET 22 for 53 yards (21-T.Walker).
Q1 15:00 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 25 · gained 53 · +3.63 EP · +12.8% win probability
167 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 91 yards from the DET 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers6
Lions0Packers7Lions0Packers7Lions6Packers13Lions6Packers14Lions6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Packers20Lions6Packers23Lions6Packers23Lions12Packers23Lions14Packers29Lions14Packers29Lions20Packers29Lions22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 22/32 | 268 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +12.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 | −6.8 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 7 | 94 | 1 | 23% | +6.3 |
| Malik Heath | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 13% | +3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Owens | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Corey Ballentine |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 29/44 | 332 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_GB_DET
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 51 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 13% | +1.1 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 27% | −0.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Ben Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 4 | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
| 71 |
| 4.7 |
| 1 |
| +2.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 26% | +2.1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 12% | +7.8 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 7% | +4.6 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 19% | −1.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 19% | −1.9 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | −0.1 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.1 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerry Jacobs | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tracy Walker III | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
