2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

Houston Texans

JAX -1 ✓U 48 ✓DomeJaguars closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, JAX +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:18JAX 24 — HOU 21HOU ball · 1st & 10JAX 54%

(1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 41-J.Allen and 44-T.Walker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:18JAX +21% win prob(1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 41-J.Allen and 44-T.Walker).
Q4 · 1:40HOU +18% win prob(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 2-R.Woods to JAX 37 for 14 yards (37-T.Herndon).
Q4 · 0:34JAX +18% win prob(:34) 16-M.Ammendola 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q3 · 8:10HOU +12% win prob(8:10) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at HOU 30 for 45 yards (21-S.Nelson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:58JAX Field goal
(5:58) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — HOU 0
Q2 · 9:44JAX Touchdown
(9:44) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 0
Q2 · 6:49HOU Touchdown
(6:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 7
Q2 · 2:28JAX Field goal
(2:28) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 13 — HOU 7
Q3 · 8:16HOU Touchdown
(8:16) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 13 — HOU 14
Q3 · 4:34JAX Touchdown
(4:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: JAX 21 — HOU 14
Q4 · 11:25JAX Field goal
(11:25) 10-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 24 — HOU 14
Q4 · 5:22HOU Touchdown
(5:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 24 — HOU 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Texans
Offensive plays	68	58
Total yards	448 (edge)	352
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	44%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/38, 364 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

12.5 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

26/36, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.8 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

20 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-10.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

6 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/9 for 104 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

5/6 for 89 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	6	22	3:12	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 13	12	65	5:54	Field goal +3
3	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:30	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 45	4	4	0:50	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 9	7	19	4:12	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 32	9	64	4:39	Touchdown +7
7	HOU	HOU 25	7	75	3:06	Touchdown +7
8	JAX	JAX 25	9	50	4:13	Field goal +3
9	HOU	HOU 25	11	44	2:04	Missed field goal
10	JAX	JAX 40	4	64	0:20	End of half
11	JAX	JAX 16	8	41	3:11	Interception
12	HOU	JAX 46	8	46	3:39	Touchdown +7
13	JAX	JAX 25	10	58	3:41	Touchdown +8
14	HOU	HOU 25	6	16	1:56	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 11	10	64	6:13	Field goal +3
16	HOU	HOU 25	6	21	2:05	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	HOU 46	6	9	2:10	Missed field goal
18	HOU	HOU 45	6	55	1:50	Touchdown +7
19	JAX	JAX 25	7	29	2:14	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 11	11	45	2:32	Missed field goal
21	JAX	JAX 48	1	0	0:29	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	23/38	364	1	1	0	12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	20	56	2.8	0	-10.1
D'Ernest Johnson	7	19	2.7	0	-0.8
Tank Bigsby	1	6	6.0	0	0.4
Trevor Lawrence	2	0	0.0	1	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	6	89	1	16%	9.3
Christian Kirk	4	7	89	0	19%	5.8
Luke Farrell	3	5	55	0	14%	1.9
Evan Engram	5	8	49	0	22%	-5.4
D'Ernest Johnson	1	2	42	0	5%	2.0
Travis Etienne	4	6	30	0	16%	-0.3
Zay Jones	1	3	10	0	8%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	3	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	4	0.0	1
Devin Lloyd	6	2	0.0	1
Josh Hines-Allen	4	1	2.5	0
Montaric Brown	4	1	0.0	0
Tre Herndon	3	1	0.0	0
Andre Cisco	1	2	0.0	0
Travon Walker	1	2	0.5	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	0	0.0	0
Luke Fortner	1	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	26/36	304	2	0	4	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
C.J. Stroud	6	47	7.8	1	3.4
Devin Singletary	6	18	3.0	0	-0.6
Dameon Pierce	5	14	2.8	0	-1.0
Tank Dell	1	12	12.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	7	9	104	1	25%	4.9
Devin Singletary	6	7	54	0	19%	1.1
Tank Dell	5	8	50	1	22%	1.1
Robert Woods	2	3	40	0	8%	2.6
Xavier Hutchinson	1	1	34	0	3%	2.6
Brevin Jordan	1	2	9	0	6%	0.8
John Metchie	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.7
Dameon Pierce	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Dalton Schultz	1	2	2	0	6%	-3.9
Andrew Beck	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Christian Harris	7	5	0	0
Jalen Pitre	3	4	0	0
Blake Cashman	4	2	0	0
Steven Nelson	5	1	0	2
Tavierre Thomas	2	4	0	1
Derek Stingley	3	1	1	2
Will Anderson	2	2	0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	2	1	0	0
Kerry Hyder	2	0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -1
Closing total: 48
JAX moneyline: -115
HOU moneyline: -105

Jaguars closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: JAX 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.