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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:52 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q4 1:18, 1st and 10, on C.J. Stroud — 21.4 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, Jaguars +21.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:18 · 1st and 10
C.J. Stroud
Jaguars
(1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 41-J.Allen and 44-T.Walker).
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 41-J.Allen and 44-T.Walker).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Calvin Ridley's 1-yard touchdown catch with 4:34 left in the 3rd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Calvin Ridley1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point goodLead never changed again+821–148 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryTexans
Jaguars ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 68 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Texans’s 58 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Texans 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
HOU's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, is past their previous high of +4.0 pts in week 9 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
HOU's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 67.3% in week 9 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 67 snaps
Texans8.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.5 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 88%
Tendencies room →Jaguars50.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 54 early downs
Texans75.0%leaned — passed early · +20.8 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Jaguars20.5%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans15.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
Texans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 49%
Tendencies room →Jaguars30.4%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Texans23.1%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jaguars13.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Texans5.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
HOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.9 pts, 11.5 points above their season mean of -2.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/38, 364 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
12.5 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
26/36, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
0.8 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
C.J. Stroud banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 30.9 | +8.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/36, 304 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 24.6 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/38, 364 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 0 yd, 1 TD |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.4 | +7.5 | 77% | 74% | 25% | 28% | 7/9, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.9 | +6.9 | 94% | 95% | 16% | 28% | 5/6, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Tank DellWR · Featured Receiver | 17.2 | +1.1 | 80% | 83% | 22% | 36% | 1 car, 12 yd · 5/8, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 13.2 | −3.6 | 82% | 76% | 19% | 0% | 6 car, 18 yd · 6/7, 54 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | +1.4 | 76% | 90% | 19% | 27% | 4/7, 89 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.6 | −13.5 | 62% | 51% | 16% | 0% | 20 car, 56 yd · 4/6, 30 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | −5.6 | 70% | 85% | 22% | 16% | 5/8, 49 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | −2.7 | 42% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3/5, 55 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 7.1 | 0.0 | 40% | 51% | 5% | 1% | 7 car, 19 yd · 1/2, 42 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +0.7 | 58% | 52% | 8% | 14% | 2/3, 40 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +2.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dameon PierceRB | 2.8 | −0.9 | 18% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 5 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −3.8 | 71% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.9 | 43% | 37% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.2 | 32% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.3 | 48% | 46% | 6% | 11% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 1.1 | −0.3 | 25% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.6 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 2-R.Woods to JAX 37 for 14 yards (37-T.Herndon).
Q4 1:40 · Texans · 3rd & 8 at HOU 49 · gained 14 · +1.63 EP · +19.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jaguars3
Texans0Jaguars9Texans0Jaguars10Texans0Jaguars10Texans6Jaguars10Texans7Jaguars13Texans7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Jaguars13Texans13Jaguars13Texans14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jaguars19Texans14Jaguars21Texans14Jaguars24Texans14How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Jaguars24Texans20Jaguars24Texans21How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/38 | 364 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 | −10.1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 16% | +9.3 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 19% | +5.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Lloyd | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 26/36 | 304 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_JAX_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Luke Farrell | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 14% | +1.9 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 22% | −5.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 16% | −0.3 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Fortner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |
| 47 |
| 7.8 |
| 1 |
| +3.4 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Dameon Pierce | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 9 | 104 | 1 | 25% | +4.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 19% | +1.1 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 22% | +1.1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 8% | +2.6 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −3.9 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harris | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Will Anderson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Hyder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
