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2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · NRG Stadium
24
21
Jacksonville Jaguars 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, JAX +21% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 41-J.Allen and 44-T.Walker).
How the points landed
(5:58) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — HOU 0(9:44) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 0(6:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 7(2:28) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 13 — HOU 7(8:16) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 13 — HOU 14(4:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: JAX 21 — HOU 14(11:25) 10-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 24 — HOU 14(5:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 24 — HOU 21Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 68 | 58 |
| Total yards | 448 (edge) | 352 |
| Yards per play | 6.6 (edge) | 6.1 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.04 | 0.06 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 45% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 79% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.32 (edge) | 0.09 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.34 | -0.07 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/13 (edge) | 6/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/38, 364 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
12.5 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
26/36, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
0.8 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 22 | 3:12 | Punt | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 13 | 12 | 65 | 5:54 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 45 | 4 | 4 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 9 | 7 | 19 | 4:12 | Punt | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 32 | 9 | 64 | 4:39 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 75 | 3:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 25 | 9 | 50 | 4:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 25 | 11 | 44 | 2:04 | Missed field goal | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 40 | 4 | 64 | 0:20 | End of half | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 16 | 8 | 41 | 3:11 | Interception | |
| 12 | HOU | JAX 46 | 8 | 46 | 3:39 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 58 | 3:41 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 16 | 1:56 | Punt | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 11 | 10 | 64 | 6:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 21 | 2:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | JAX | HOU 46 | 6 | 9 | 2:10 | Missed field goal | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 45 | 6 | 55 | 1:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 29 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 11 | 11 | 45 | 2:32 | Missed field goal | |
| 21 | JAX | JAX 48 | 1 | 0 | 0:29 | End of game |
8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/38 | 364 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 | -10.1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 16% | 9.3 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 19% | 5.8 |
| Luke Farrell | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Lloyd | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 26/36 | 304 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.9 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 22% | -5.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 5% | 2.0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 16% | -0.3 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | -0.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Fortner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.4 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Dameon Pierce | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 9 | 104 | 1 | 25% | 4.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 19% | 1.1 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 22% | 1.1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 8% | 2.6 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 3% | 2.6 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | 0.8 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -0.7 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | -3.9 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harris | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Will Anderson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Hyder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
