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Kansas City Chiefs 31 at Las Vegas Raiders 17. Final.
Chiefs -9 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Raiders 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:51, 1st and 10, on Josh Jacobs — 13.7 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:51 · 1st and 10
Josh Jacobs
Raiders
(12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chiefs closed -9 and covered, winning by 14.
Kansas City Chiefs 31–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:51, Raiders +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jakobi MeyersRaidersQ1 9:38(9:38) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.8pts
Daniel CarlsonChiefsQ1 0:35(:35) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
8.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs147 of 154 plays carry both curves
(12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.7 for RaidersExpected points +4.94 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 35 points higher than the market did.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:51LV +14% win prob(12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:35KC +8% win prob(:35) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
1st · 9:38LV +8% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:08LV +8% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to KC 20 for 33 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
1st · 15:00LV +7% win prob(15:00) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle to LV 32 for 7 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
2nd · 4:27KC +7% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 22-A.Abdullah to LV 38 for 2 yards (51-M.Danna).
2nd · 10:00LV +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isiah Pacheco's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:18 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
2nd0:30Justin Watson·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–14
3rd9:18Isiah Pacheco·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–14
3rd2:13Daniel Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+321–17
4th13:48Rashee Rice·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+728–17
4th3:14Harrison Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+331–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryRaiders
Chiefs5–1Raiders
362Total yards358
6.5Yards per play6.2
52%Success rate33%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays4
23First downs16
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.03Raiders: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Chiefs: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.10Raiders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.22Raiders: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 56 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Raiders’s 58 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Raiders 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteLV's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.5%, 11.7 points below their season mean of 22.2% and 1.3 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%60 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%60 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%60 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Full-time92%55 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation77%46 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Heavy rotation67%40 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:48 · Chiefs · 3rd & 6 at LV 39 · gained 39 · +4.96 EP · +10.8% win probability
145 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 79 yards from the KC 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
718
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0570%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4159%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.2433%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2564%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.6580%
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Chiefs0Raiders6
Chiefs0Raiders7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 18
Punt5 plays
No good14 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Chiefs 12
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Chiefs 33
Chiefs0Raiders13
Chiefs0Raiders14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 37
Chiefs6Raiders14
Chiefs7Raiders14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Raiders 1
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Chiefs13Raiders14
Chiefs14Raiders14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Raiders 3
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Chiefs20Raiders14
Chiefs21Raiders14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chiefs 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chiefs21Raiders17
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Chiefs 16
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 43
4th quarter42 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chiefs27Raiders17
Chiefs28Raiders17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Raiders 39
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 44
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 33
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 19
Chiefs31Raiders17
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 5
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 43
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
