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2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

31

Las Vegas Raiders

17

KC -9 ✓O 42.5 ✓Dome

Kansas City Chiefs 31–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:51, LV +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑KC ↓
Q2 · 12:51KC 0 — LV 13LV ball · 1st & 10KC 59%

(12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:51LV +14% win prob(12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 0:35KC +8% win prob(:35) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
  3. Q1 · 9:38LV +8% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 4:08LV +8% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to KC 20 for 33 yards (22-T.McDuffie).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:38LV Touchdown

    (9:38) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — LV 7
  2. Q2 · 12:51LV Touchdown

    (12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — LV 14
  3. Q2 · 6:44KC Touchdown

    (6:44) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7 — LV 14
  4. Q2 · 0:30KC Touchdown

    (:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-84-Ju.Watson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — LV 14
  5. Q3 · 9:18KC Touchdown

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 21 — LV 14
  6. Q3 · 2:13LV Field goal

    (2:13) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: KC 21 — LV 17
  7. Q4 · 13:48KC Touchdown

    (13:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 28 — LV 17
  8. Q4 · 3:14KC Field goal

    (3:14) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 31 — LV 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsRaiders
Offensive plays5658
Total yards362 (edge)358
Yards per play6.5 (edge)6.2
Expected points added / play0.26 (edge)-0.03
Success rate52% (edge)33%
Dropback rate68%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.32 (edge)0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)-0.22
Third downs5/107/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)16
Sacks taken11
Turnovers00

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/34, 298 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.6 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

23/33, 248 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.3 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

20 att, 110 yds, 1 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

15 att, 55 yds, 2 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

8/10 for 107 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/7 for 91 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 2511755:28Touchdown +7
2KCKC 25501:23Punt
3LVLV 1914697:37Missed field goal
4KCKC 205132:09Punt
5LVLV 233770:42Touchdown +7
6KCKC 2914716:03Touchdown +7
7LVLV 257133:01Punt
8KCKC 219793:12Touchdown +7
9LVLV 273110:25End of half
10KCKC 2512755:45Touchdown +7
11LVLV 25561:31Punt
12KCKC 404-51:30Punt
13LVLV 248604:05Field goal +3
14KCKC 258853:29Touchdown +7
15LVLV 2510314:07Punt
16KCKC 75262:05Punt
17LVLV 10470:59Turnover on downs
18KCLV 176183:18Field goal +3
19LVLV 25691:20Turnover on downs
20KCLV 34301:51End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes27/3429820112.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco15553.722.7
Patrick Mahomes591.80-3.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire351.70-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashee Rice810107131%7.6
Travis Kelce6791022%5.3
Isiah Pacheco5534016%1.2
Skyy Moore333409%0.8
Noah Gray333009%1.9
Justin Watson13319%-0.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling11-103%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
L'Jarius Sneed720.000
Justin Reid540.000
Drue Tranquill520.000
Michael Danna210.000
George Karlaftis301.000
Bryan Cook210.000
Charles Omenihu110.000
Willie Gay110.000
Trent McDuffie200.001
Jaylen Watson200.001

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell23/332481014.3
Jakobi Meyers0/10000-0.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs201105.51-4.7
Ameer Abdullah11111.00-0.2
Jakobi Meyers122.000.5
Zamir White100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers6779122%5.8
Davante Adams5773022%1.4
Hunter Renfrow4438013%1.6
Michael Mayer2427013%1.2
Josh Jacobs4615019%-1.7
Austin Hooper121406%0.5
Ameer Abdullah11203%-1.2
Tre Tucker01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane450.000
Nate Hobbs610.000
Jack Jones500.000
Trevon Moehrig310.000
Malcolm Koonce310.000
Divine Deablo310.000
Amik Robertson300.000
Luke Masterson210.000
Marcus Epps110.000
Jerry Tillery110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -9
Closing total
42.5
KC moneyline
-500
LV moneyline
+380

Chiefs closed -9 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 48 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
KC 6 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Antonio Pierce

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.